Cagayan Cast Scrutiny, Part 2

Here's our second analysis of more castaways; another dialogue between myself and Ethan.

Ethan: Yoyoyo this is Ethan buzzing in.

Marcus: Welcome back, Ethan. I know you're busy tonight, so let's get to as many castaways as we can. Ready to continue our scrutiny?

Ethan: Yes I am. How about we start today's analysis on Morgan? What do you think of her, Marcus?

Morgan McLeod, 21, Ex-NFL Cheerleader

Beauty

Marcus: Ok, so Morgan. She's obviously very attractive, used to getting what she wants, etc. These are qualities that can be dangerous in Survivor, but I think she recognizes this and actually seems pretty smart.

Ethan: True, but people who are used to getting what they want tend to get other people to get it. Does that make her a potential leader?

Marcus: You know, I don't think so. She said she wants to be friends with the guys and also wants to "get in with the girls quickly," so I hope she'll be everyone's friend and not a leader. She was talking about how she's going to make big moves and she seems capable so I'm looking forward to seeing her.

Ethan: As a more general question, what is the likelihood of showmances with a beauty tribe?

Marcus: Not too bad of a chance. I think Jefra, Alexis, LJ, and Jeremiah, all people we haven't talked about, are the most likely candidates, though. 

Ethan: Well, back to Morgan. She seems to be friendly. But in Survivor, with too many friends you can pose a threat.

Marcus: I guess...but if she's counted as a loyal alliance member, people will want to keep her around. I gave her 70/100 on my scale.

Ethan: I rate her 55 for her plan to make friends. This isn't a really original plan, but it can be effective if implemented by the right people.

Marcus: That's fair enough. Who's next? Sarah? Thoughts?

Sarah Lacina, 29, Police Officer

Brawn

Ethan: Maybe a little annoying. She didn't seem all that interesting.

Marcus: Yeah, I agree. She's pretty serious, although she says she's "overwhelmingly competitive." 

Ethan: Also, I am not sure about her social game, because she is overly competitive and will probably blame losses on her team mates.

Marcus: That's something that will probably count against her, although I have a feeling the Brawns tribe won't be losing too many challenges. 

Ethan: I am not so sure; there are a lot of puzzles.

Marcus: With a big enough lead, you can finish any puzzle. Something to note is that she seems to have a good grip on how to play; she says she's going to get into a tight alliance with one person and then recruit two others. Basic strategy, but I bet a lot of people lack that. 

Ethan: Yeah, she used the idea of concentric circles of alliances to protect her. I have a feeling though, that she is going to be hit by a bullet like she days as she says before she can throw people in the way.

Marcus: That's possible...I really don't know with Sarah. I didn't get much from her; I gave her 50 because she could go either way.

Ethan: I agree and gave her 50 also. It depends if she can get her rings of alliances.

Marcus: Agreed. Next? How about Lindsey? 

Lindsey Ogle, 29, Hairstylist

Brawn

Ethan: She was interesting, if annoying.

Marcus: I liked Lindsey, actually. She was funny and from the way she describes what she's planning on doing, it sounds like she might be an alpha female sort of player, which we don't see too often. 

Ethan: Well, she just sort of reminds me of Ashley, the wrestler from China who failed and who I though would do well. That just worries me about her.

Marcus: How come?

Ethan: They both seemed alpha-like and strong. They both have tattoos and colors in their hair and were raring to play.

Marcus: That's fair. I also described Lindsey as dominating, and she says she doesn't want to be too intimidating but just the fact that she's saying that means she might be. And all these traits could certainly help her but will most likely put a huge target on her back. 

Ethan: That is definitely true. I would put her as the Brawn version of Spencer in that she is trying to hide her talents.

Marcus: I guess so. I don't think she's going to be very successful, unfortunately; I gave her 40. 

Ethan: I give her 45, because now that I think of it, Ashley got sick and that was a reason she got kicked. So maybe Lindsey can pretend to be weak and take over the pack.

Marcus: If she can do that, I'll be pleasantly surprised. Alright, Ethan, thanks for chatting once again. It's getting late so we should probably end here for tonight. We'll hopefully finish up our analysis tomorrow!

Ethan: Roger that, Marcus. Have a good night. 

Cagayan Cast Scrutiny, Part 1

As promised, here is the dialog from my conversation with Ethan. We jumped around and just talked about cast members in no particular order, and will continue our scrutiny tomorrow. We also may try an audio analysis next; I'm not sure. So here it is: hopefully you enjoy it!



Marcus: So, let's get into it here, Ethan. What did you think of the cast as a whole?

Ethan: Um... Well they all seem arrogant, but that could be just because they are told to act like that. I think they are pretty cool though.

Marcus: I guess so...I think they're pretty likable.

Ethan:  Most seem willing to backstab,which will be interesting.

Marcus: Right, although I bet you a lot of people say that in the pre-season interviews.

Ethan: Maybe; I haven't seen many pre-season videos before.

Marcus: There's definitely a lot of diversity here, wouldn't you say?

Ethan: Yes, there are cops and chess masters and cheerleaders and lawyers playing which will each have there own specialties. Some seem smart and others stupid..some seem strong and others non-threatening.

Marcus: Yeah, plus four African Americans and one Asian American. We haven't had that kind of ethnic diversity since Fiji and Cook Islands, which were specifically cast by race. 

Ethan: The ethnic diversity is cool. Enough with the general though, let's talk about individuals.

Marcus: Ok, sounds good. Who should we start out with?

Ethan: Tasha seems like a good starter.

Latasha “Tasha” Fox, 37, Accountant

Brains

Marcus: Alright. Latasha "Tasha" Fox, on the Brains tribe.

Ethan: She appears smart and pretty, though I have a feeling that this isn't the "adventure" she thinks it will be.

Marcus: That's certainly true. She says she's a longtime fan, and wants to be a leader towards the end of the game, but not in the beginning. What do you make of that?

Ethan: I think that will be next to impossible to accomplish. It is a great strategy if it works, but first impressions are big and if you don't start out as a leader, then it will be hard to get people to follow you without drawing unwanted attention.

Marcus: That's certainly true. I actually thought of one example where this did work: Denise Stapley, who won three seasons ago in the Philippines. It might be a bit of a stretch, but she started off as a sort of underdog and then really picked up her game at the merge and led her alliance...and then won. Could you see Tasha doing anything like that?

Ethan: I can, but the likelihood of it is low and the dangers involved are high. She has a shot, a better chance than anyone else I've seen except Kass of pulling an underdog victory. 

Marcus: Seems pretty fair. So what I did for each person is I ranked them percentage-wize about how I felt about them. Anything above 50% of going far is good. I gave Tasha a 70%. Do you think that's fair? How far do you think she'll get?

Ethan: Well... I am not sure if she earns a 70%, but she will probably make the merge at least. Although with her strategy she could easily be seen as useless and she must face those risks.

Marcus: Alright, so shall we move on, or do you have any last thoughts on Tasha? Middle of the road, decent player?

Ethan: Yes.

Marcus: Ok, so who's next?

Ethan: Woo.

Yung “Woo” Hwang, 29, Martial Arts Instructor

Brawn

Marcus: Woooooo.

Ethan: Woo Hoo.

Marcus: Haha ok so Woo. I wanted to like Woo, but he seems super arrogant to me. 

Ethan: Oh, I like him. Though I think his analogy of Tae Kwon Do is off and that physically it will help, but if he focuses too much on it, it will set him apart and therefore make him a target.

Marcus: Well, we've seen a lot of examples of different martial arts and yoga all the time on Survivor, like with Coach, but you could be right. He just seems really cocky. I described him as "an Asian Ozzy." 

Ethan:  Like Dragon Chi of Coach and meditation of Aras.

Marcus: Ooh that's good. He also doesn't seem so great socially; he talked a lot about how important challenges were and how he was physical, but that was about it, at least I thought. You?

Ethan: You're right about that.

Marcus: I can see him lasting in the pre-merge but then being a big target at the merge and not having the social game to save himself. 

Ethan: Yeah, but I see him being eliminated pre-merge if his group loses the challenges. Knock knock.

Marcus: Who's there?

Ethan: Woo.

Marcus: Woo Hoo? Oh. 

Ethan: Woooohoooo.

Marcus: Hahaha. I gave him 40%. The arrow is pointing down for Woo, at least for me. 

Ethan: 20-60 for me. It all depends on if his Tae Kwon Do do can save him.

Marcus: Haha, I don't think it will. So early merge? Possibly late pre-merge?

Ethan: Yep, that seems about right.

Marcus: Ok, who's next?

Ethan: Trish. Would you mind a quick recap? She isn't very memorable.

Trish Hegarty, 48, Pilates Instructor

Brawn

Marcus: I agree. Trish is a pilates instructor from Masschusetts...I didn't get very much from her. She's one of the two older women, and is on the Brawn tribe.

Ethan: I think she will make it moderately far as a unnoticeable player. Depends on whether or not she can pull her weight.

Marcus: Probably, although I hope not. What I said for her is that she seemed impatient, strict, and that she might crack easily under pressure. Well, she's probably very good physically, at least. 

Ethan: Well, let's hope she gets out early or has a meltdown to make this more interesting.

Marcus: That'd be fun. I didn't get much else from her. I guess she could go far totally under the radar, but she doesn't seem very likable and I don't think she would win.

Ethan: That is a reasonable assumption. Let's hope she proves us wrong about being boring.

Marcus: We'll keep our fingers crossed. As you can tell, I wasn't very impressed by Trish. I gave her 35/100. 

Ethan: 15 for me.

Marcus: Wow, really? There's something to be said for under the radar playing, you know. Although she could have some outbursts.

Ethan: She seems boring and not the type of person to win. The only way she could make it far is by being carried.

Marcus: Agreed. Next?



Ethan: Tony looked pretty cool. He is strong, but I feel like he won't be able to keep his attention on the game 24/7.

Tony Vlachos, 39, Police Officer

Brawn

Marcus: I really liked Tony. I think he came off really well in his interview. He said he was going to bring everything BUT "loyalty, honesty, integrity, and honor." I like that. 

Ethan: He seems like a fire, and will either catch everyone else on fire or burn himself out. He has some really great aspects of his personality though.

Marcus: I agree. He's funny and likable, but he also seems like he could be stubborn and be a big target. However, he seems empathetic and his skills as a cop could help him a lot.

Ethan: He has a big personality which is good for the audience but can be a target if he doesn't get along with people.

Marcus: That's exactly what I'm thinking. I hope he does well but I don't know if he will. I said 45 for him. 

Ethan: Probably a lenient 75 from me; he has a lot of potential with a few dangerous qualities.

Marcus: Now that we're talking about it, I'm getting a better feeling about Tony, so maybe. He might play too hard, too fast, however. 

Ethan: Yeah, that is why he is like a fire, hopefully he'll have enough fuel to keep burning.

Marcus: I like the analogies. Next?

Ethan: Spencer. The arrogant kid.

Spencer Bledsoe, 21, Student

Brains

Marcus: We're going to be sharply divided on Spencer. I like him. I called him the "likable Cochran." But you and everyone else seem to hate him. 

Ethan: He doesn't realize that chess smart isn't people smart.

Marcus: That's a fair point...hmm. I'm going to have to watch his interview again. Although he seems empathetic as well. I also compared him to Stephen Fishbach. He also said he wants to play down his intelligence.

Ethan: That is a smart move, but it is impossible to hide your true self from people you're with 39 days straight. Maybe he can hide it long enought that it will be too late for the others, but I have a feeling he will get angry at someone for being stupid.

Marcus: Yeah I guess so. I still have a good feeling from him though, and I think he could be a great villain, although he might also play too hard too fast. 

Ethan: He seems like a good player if he can hide his intelligence and extreme arrogance and hubris. He also mentioned patience is a problem for him, which is a huge part of Survivor. I feel like he is going to make it far, but backstab one too many people.

Marcus: I guess that could be tough. I think he can do it though. Initially I said 80/100. After talking to you, though, I might change it. I think he could be final 7...or very early pre-merge.

Ethan: If he can backstab people before they realize it, then he will do well, but I have a feeling he will do will, but I think he might blow his cover at some point. I'll give him an 85.

Marcus: 85? Really? I thought you didn't like him.

Ethan: I don't. Doesn't mean he isn't good.

Marcus: Ok, next?

Ethan: Kass.

Kassandra “Kass” McQuillen, 41, Attorney

Brains

Marcus: Yay, Kassandra. So, Kass was the one I had to go back and watch twice, because I'm really not sure what to make of her. Her strategy is so interesting and unique--she wants to appear the worst, and make everyone else think she's better than her.

Ethan: It works as long as she does work around camp. Camp work is important or you are "bad." 

Marcus: Right. Here's what I think. If this strategy works and she's totally underestimated until she strikes, people will think she's a genius. If she appears too weak and is voted out right away, which I hope doesn't happen, then everyone will says she's an idiot. I'm definitely rooting for Kass. 

Ethan: I agree with you, except that you have to take in the fact that she she is on the Brain tribe, which will have a different dynamic than the others. She is with a host of other smart people which may cause her strategy to fail.

Marcus: I actually think Kass is smart enough to pull this off. She understands the "mom stereotype" and is going to use it to her advantage. I think she'll either go soon or go far. I gave her 60 just cause she's such a wild card.

Ethan: I'll giver a 20 and 90. The twenty for if she fails at pulling it off and the 90 if she succeeds.

Marcus: Sounds good to me. Well, Ethan, thanks so much for talking with me tonight. 

Ethan: Thanks to you too, Marcus.

Marcus: Talk to you later. 


So there you have it, everybody. I at least thought it was an enlightening conversation. Agree/disagree with our analysis? Comment below! And check back tomorrow for the next part of Survivor Cast Scrutiny!

Survivor: Cagayan Cast Released!

At last, you can meet the cast of Survivor: Cagayan!

You can watch their videos here and read their bios here. There's a lot of interesting stuff; huge props to Survivor for casting such an interesting and diverse group. This is just a short post to update you on the cast; check back later tonight for a full analysis with myself and Ethan.

P.S. Could these be the tribal immunity idols? I hope so, because they're awesome!

Introducing my Co-Host

What a busy day; this is my third blog post, in preparation for tomorrow. As you know, the cast comes out tomorrow, and I'm going to be analyzing it (scrutinizing it, I should say). But I won't be alone. My co-host/co-blogger friend, Ethan, will occasionally be blogging (mainly once Survivor gets underway), and will be helping me scrutinize the new cast tomorrow, so I wanted to introduce him tonight. Ethan just started watching Survivor last year, and has just watched a couple of seasons, but he's really into it. He also has a wealth of knowledge on The Amazing Race, which we will also be covering. So, here's a message from Ethan.

Hello everyone, I am Ethan and I will be helping Marcus with this blog. Marcus and I will be writing about Survivor, something I have only gotten into in the last year. In my opinion, it is a pretty cool show with great strategy. I will also be covering The Amazing Race, which is an amazing show. The Amazing Race has some cooler tasks and goes to better places than Survivor, but it has almost no strategy, so I think they are both great in different ways. My favorite reality TV show, which we won't be covering for now, is Whodunnit. So, I hope you like how this blog is doing so far. I look forward to writing about these great shows. --Ethan

Ok...cast reveal tomorrow! Talk to you soon!

Greatest Player Rankings, Part 4

The continuation of my very own greatest Survivors ever rankings. Check out part 1, 2, and 3 if you haven't seen them first.

#10: Stephen Fishbach

Stephen is one of the greatest players to never win Survivor, and his gameplay on Tocantins was far superior to J.T.'s. While J.T. had nothing to do around camp--everyone loved him--Stephen worked hard to ensure that he was with J.T. to the end, and also ingratiated himself with Debbie, Coach, and Erinn. Sure, J.T. did some strategizing and helped the "Warriors Alliance" but look how long it took for that to crumble. Three tribals after the merge.

Stephen was the brains of the operation, and without him, J.T. would have never gotten to the end. And although Stephen never turned on J.T., which he needed to do to win, J.T. went on an immunity run and was safe for the last 3 tribal councils of the game; Stephen couldn't touch him. Since Tocantins, however, Stephen has admitted that he planned to go after J.T. if he could. You'll have to take Stephen's word for it, but I certainly do.

It's a shame that Stephen has never been brought back for another season; I hope we see him soon on Heroes vs. Villains 2 or whatever they do for Season 30. His sneakiness and intelligence would most likely make him a target, but he's loyal, and I think Stephen could go far again.

#9: Russell Hantz

Ok, before you yell at me, let me explain. I spent a long time moving Russell and the other non-winners in the top 10 around on my list, and this is where he ended up. Originally I had Russell as high as 6, but I realized that having such a poor social game lowers him to just barely above Stephen (because Russell did it twice, Stephen only did it once!).

I do, however, believe that his strategic acumen and his challenge prowess (which is something no one ever thinks about, but he is very good physically) makes up for his weak social gameplay, on this list at least. Even a Russell hater would have to agree with me that some of the moves he's made have been incredible, like voting out Tyson. There are also some more subtle (if that word can be applied to Russell) moves he made, like breaking up Parvati and Danielle. Yes, it made Danielle mad, and yes, he should have handled it better, but quite correctly he recognized a tight pair and got rid of one of them before it was too late for him, something that players like Cirie have failed to do in time.

I'm not the biggest Russell fan, but I do consider him to be a great player, although it's clear there's no way he'll ever win. He treats people horribly and so they hate him, and then he wonders why they don't vote for him. It's a shame, because if this list was "Top Strategic Players," he would probably be in the top 5. 

#8: Tyson Apostol

Ok, here's someone a little less controversial, and a little more recently. Tyson played a superb game last season, and I'm sure everyone will agree he absolutely deserved the win. I'll point out the obvious first: he's very athletic, having won 4 immunity challenges in 3 seasons (although don't count HvV). He's strategic, something that might not have been attributed to Tyson before Blood vs. Water. He definitely is, though; getting out Aras was a very smart move, as were some of his other plays. And most importantly, Tyson is a very good social player. Convincing Ciera that she was going to the final 3 so well that she didn't even flip at final 7 was a great example of impeccable social gameplay. So was getting Monica to stay so loyal.

If  you look back at the season, Tyson was a very dominant winner. So much so that I have a feeling that we need a little time to go by before we can truly rank him. I have him at 8 right now, but Blood vs. Water was only last year. A year or two from now, we might look back and say, "Wow, Tyson really was good!" I think he may end up being as good as Boston Rob or Kim. And I wouldn't say that about most people.

Here's why: Tyson had to contend with not only wily veterans like Tina, Aras, and Laura, but also faced off against some pretty smart, capable players. Vytas wasn't going to lie down and get sent home meekly. And he's just the tip of the iceberg; Ciera and Hayden (oh sure, Katie too) fought and scrambled as hard as they could to stay, and to take Tyson and his alliance out. Now compare that against Matt Elrod, Natalie White, and Phillip Sheppard 1.0. How does Ciera match up against Kat, or Hayden against Tarzan? Tyson fought good players, and he still won. That's why I think Tyson could be one of the best...ever.

I don't know when part 5 of my rankings will be, because we have some big news tomorrow. Check back soon!