Cagayan Finale Power Rankings

The eve of the finale is upon us.

The eve of the finale is upon us...and it's time for one last round of power rankings and predictions for what has been a truly incredible season. Gordon Holmes hasn't released his power rankings for this episode, but I'm relatively sure that when they get down to the finale, they put people in order of likeliness of winning, so that's what I'll do as well. If that's not what they end up doing, I'll also write a list of normal power rankings just in case.

As I forewarned, it's been a busy couple of weeks (and still is). Luckily, we were able to continue getting you relatively timely Survivor recaps, and posted our scrutiny of the penultimate episode on Sunday. Ethan and I haven't had a chance to record the Amazing Race finale podcast yet, so I can't give you a time on when that will come out, but hopefully we'll get a lot of extensive finale coverage for Survivor at least; stay tuned for updates. Alright, let's get into this.

Power Rankings

Last Week: I had Trish in spot 5, and as per the rules, I get double the points. Ciera and Gordon both had her at 2.
Total Score: I now have 95 points going into the finale...Gordon has 103 and Ciera has 90.

This Week:

1: Spencer
Spencer has prevailed this season against the odds, and going into the finale episode, he's formed a voting block of three and managed to break up Tony's alliance. He's a huge threat and a likable underdog, so it would be utter folly for the other players to let him reach the end. And yet, I think he will. Spencer has proven to be a beast in challenges and can win immunity when he needs it. He only needs to survive 2 more Tribal Councils, and if Spencer's chances were infinitesimal before, surely they're better now, so close to the end. And if Spencer does make it to the end of the game, and gets to face the jury, he wins, barring an epic Amanda-choke. He has very few (if any) enemies on the jury and quite a lot of friends. He's made some good moves and been someone for the jury to root for. My official prediction for tomorrow night is that Spencer wins Survivor: Cagayan.

2: Tony

Certainly the most willing to
make big moves.

What a great cast this season, right? And possibly the best casting choice of all was Tony Vlachos. Not the best player, not the strongest,  not the smartest this season, but certainly the most willing to make big moves. And in an era of Survivor where big moves are encouraged and looked upon with favor, Tony has a great shot to win this game. His moves may not have always been right, but he managed to wheel and deal himself to the Final 4, with three other players who never had as firm a grip on the game as Tony. There are certainly some bitter jurors (Jefra, Sarah) awaiting Tony at the Final Tribal Council, but if he makes it there, I think they reward his diabolical plans; he can beat anyone but Spencer.

3: Woo
Woo seems like the fish out of water in such a strategic Final 4, but just because Woo hasn't been ruling the roost doesn't mean he isn't deserving of the title of Sole Survivor. Since Day 1, he's journeyed alongside other people as their wingmen, helping them through the game and being a loyal, dependable ally. Woo isn't afraid of flipping the game around; he's done that twice so far with Tony. He is by far the most likable, lovable player left in the game, and could have a lot of sympathetic votes on the jury. I can certainly see an embittered Jefra or Kass voting for Woo over Tony any day. Who doesn't want to reward the nice guy with a million bucks? At the end of the day, it comes down to who you enjoyed being around on the island, and for that, Woo is your guy.

4: Kass

Kass has fought tooth and nail.

Kass has fought tooth and nail to carve out her own position in the game. Several times, she could have preceded with a larger alliance (Aparri 6, Brawn 3), but chose to flip the script and be the "arthur of her own destiny." Sure, she's made a lot of enemies on the jury, but she's made some strategic decisions that could see her rewarded. Making Tony look like a bully and avoiding a potential blindside by the Sarah, Spencer, Jeremiah group talked about at the merge were both smart moves. That being said, I think that Kass will have a very steep uphill battle against any of the other three at the Final Tribal Council; she'll need a monumental slip-up to take control...but it could happen.

Auction Results

If you've been following along throughout the season, you know that Ethan and I held an auction at the beginning of the season where we each bid on the Survivors and drafted a team, that earned points throughout the season. Ethan completely destroyed me in the draft, but things evened up by the merge. Since then, however, Ethan has pulled back into the lead. If Spencer wins the game, though, I might have a chance...otherwise, he probably wins. I'll include the rules for the game and the results from last week.

2 pts if one of your players wins individual immunity

3 pts if one of your players uses the HII to cancel a majority of votes against a contestant

0 pts if your player uses the OPHII

1 pt for voting out the person who used the OPHII or possessed it while being voted out (very unlikely, I know)

1 pt per jury member number (i.e. 3rd jury member gets 3 pts)

1 pt for winning individual reward

9 pts for making it to the Final Tribal Council

2 pts per vote received at the Final Tribal Council

The final 4.

Marcus:
Spencer Bledsoe (+2)
Trish Hegardy (+7)
LJ McKanas
Morgan McLeod
Sarah Lacina
Total Score: 19

Ethan:
Kass McQuillen
Tony Vlachos (+1)
Woo Hwang
Tasha Fox 
Jefra Bland 
Jeremiah Wood 
Total Score: 24

That's it for the eve-of-the-finale post; check back soon for a recap...I think it's going to be a great episode!

Cagayan E12 Power Rankings

The long, crazy journey is almost over.

It's that time of the week once again...who will be voted out in the penultimate episode of Survivor: Cagayan! Can you believe it? The long, crazy journey is almost over. Let's get into the predictions. (Image credit CBS)

But first (™ Julie Chen), a quick note about the blog: it's going to be a really busy couple of weeks for me, and possibly for Ethan as well. We're going to be trying our best to get you timely coverage and record our audio recaps quickly, but I can't promise to have something posted every day (plus, there's nothing to post on Friday's now that BBCAN is over)

I also decided to skip the Amazing Race recap this week; there's not much to say. It was a strong leg, one of the best so far. Sad to see the Afghanimals go out fourth again, loved the Hei Ho Heidi Ho, boo Dave and Connor, let's see Jen and Caroline take home the prize.

The TAR recaps don't really provide much, in my opinion; there's not as much to analyze like there is for Survivor, so that might be something to change next season. For the finale this Sunday, Ethan and I will hopefully scrutinize the episode right afterwards and have that podcast posted soon. Now, time for the power rankings.

Power Rankings

Last Week: I had Tasha at spot 5, while on the Xfinity TV power rankings contest, Ciera had her at 3 and Gordon Holmes at 6. They decided on a new rule to double the points for the rest of the season, so I can add 10 to my score.
Total Score: 85 points

This Week:

1: Tony
Tony continues his run at the top of my list; as long as he has that stupid, over-powered idol, he can't be harmed. If Trish, Kass, and Woo have their wits about them (hint: they don't), they'll vote out Spencer next and Tony at Final 4, when is no longer protected. Until then, Tony is safe. Winning, on the other hand, could be a challenge--against Spencer. I don't see him losing to Trish, Woo, or Kass unless he has a tremendous, Amanda-level choke at the Final Tribal.
Chance to win: 2nd best out of 5

I can see him beating Trish and
Kass with his charm.

2: Woo
If Tony can keep his group loyal once again (and they've proven to do that against the odds before), Spencer will go home this week. If Spencer manipulates him and he turns on Kass, then Kass goes home. If Spencer stages a revolt with Woo and Kass, Trish might go home. What's the constant in all of these scenarios? Woo is safe. Nobody wants to come after him...and really, there's no need to. He can't out-argue Spencer or Tony in the end, although I can see him beating Trish and Kass with his charm.
Chance to win: 3rd best

3: Spencer
Crazy, that I'm putting target numero uno this high, isn't it? Yeah, probably. But I'm feeling good for Spencer's chances this week; if the pattern continues, it's time for someone in the majority to go home. I think Spencer will have a decent shot getting in Tony's head again, and if not, he can maybe rekindle last week's Final 3 with Kass and Woo. Plus, he has a great chance of winning his third immunity now that Tasha is gone. And the icing on the cake is his still-strong edit. If Spencer survives a few more tribals, he's won this game.
Chance to win: 1st best

Sorry, Kass...everyone hates you.

4: Kass
It's more than likely that Tony and Kass will start (or continue, for Kass) to target each other this episode. Well, sorry, Kass, but you lose in this scenario. Tony has the idol. So if Tony marshals his troops and presents Kass as a clear target, she'll probably go home; Spencer will be only too quick to jump aboard the plan if it saves his own skin. And if Kass does make it to the end, her chances are not great...everyone hates her.
Chance to win: 5th best

5: Trish
I said that Kass loses in the scenario above, but only if she targets Tony. Everyone knows that Tony has at least one idol; unless Kass, Spencer, and Woo are going to try to blindside Tony (a fatal mistake, obviously), then they'll go for Trish, his loyal sidekick (Woo's been demoted). If Trish makes it past this week, though, I don't think she'll be in danger anymore. Whether she can win, however, is a different story. Trish has made some great moves, and is playing a great under-the-radar game. The problem with being UTR, however, is that the jury doesn't see what you do.
Chance to win: 4th best

Auction Results

Finally it was a good week for me! Tasha, Ethan's biggest point scorer went home, and my draftee Spencer won immunity. It's still an uphill battle, but we shall see how things play out.

The Solarrion Tribe prepares for (individual?!?) reward.

Marcus:
Spencer Bledsoe (+2)
Trish Hegardy
LJ McKanas
Morgan McLeod
Sarah Lacina
Total Score: 10

Ethan:
Kass McQuillen
Tony Vlachos
Woo Hwang
Tasha Fox (+6)
Jefra Bland 
Jeremiah Wood 
Total Score: 23

That's it for the power rankings; check back either tomorrow night (late) or Thursday for my episode recap, and stay tuned!

Power Rankings for Cagayan E11

We're coming into the home stretch!

We're coming into the home stretch of Cagayan...two episodes to go before the finale, if I am counting correctly. Let's find out who's going to be voted out this week, shall we? I'll also update my winner predictions (there's not much change!). (Image credit CBS)

Power Rankings

Last Week: I finally called it right, for once, with Jefra in spot 7! Ciera had her at 5 and Gordon Holmes at 6.
Total Score: 75 points

This Week:

You can't win the game
by possessing a trove
of immunity idols.

1: Tony
He still has the OPHII, so there's absolutely no way Tony's going home. That being said, it is possible--and highly likely--that everyone will turn against him. That's really all there is to say about Tony; no matter what mistakes he makes, he's safe. However, you can't win the game by possessing a treasure trove of immunity idols; if people don't like you, they won't want to vote for you at the end.
Chance to win: 3rd best

2: Spencer
After convincing Tony to flip the game on its head last week, Spencer is in an infinitely better position than last week. He still has four pseudo-enemies, but I think he can count on Kass's anger to cause a rift between them at this point. The smart move is still to target Spencer...but I have a feeling that Tony will be too preoccupied with Kass and Trish to want to deal with him. If Spencer can wriggle his way through the rest of the game, he's got the game in the back.
Chance to win: 1st best

Trish has got to start
getting rid of the better
players right now.

3: Trish
Trish has been playing a great under-the-radar game, but I think that she's ready to finally cut ties with Tony (and for good reason!). If she does that, though, she'll lose two allies in this game. Like Tony or not, it's best for her game to stick with him until he can't use his idols anymore, and then vote him out. I think that Trish does still have a shot at winning, but she's got to start getting rid of the better players right now. If either Kass or Woo goes home this week, she loses the game at FTC (unless it's a Final 2).
Chance to win: 4th best

4: Kass
Kass may be mad, she may be aggressive, and she may not have friends in Spencer or Tony (the two biggest players at the moment), but she also doesn't have any friends on the jury, and that's a great incentive to keep someone around. Unless she completely floors the jury with a Todd-liked argument (and although we remember Jean-Robert's anger being turned around, most of the jury was already relatively pro-Todd), I think Kass has no chance to win the game. However, we're dealing with Tony here. He cannot always be trusted to make the right decision, and I assume he's going to be mad at Kass for being mad herself.
Chance to win: 6th best

I would be legitimately
concerned that Tasha might
make an immunity run.

5: Tasha
The target is shifting from Spencer to Tasha, and if I were the other players, I would be legitimately concerned that Tasha might make an immunity run to the end. She's also a huge social threat, and very likable. Plus, she's got several votes counted and waiting for on the jury; what better incentive do you need to vote someone out? If the alliance of four somehow sticks together, I think Tasha could go home. And if she makes it to the end, I think she could have a decent chance against Spencer.
Chance to win: 2nd best

6: Woo
I think Kass goes home if Tony sides with Spencer and Tasha, and I think Tasha goes home if he sides with Kass and Trish. But what if everyone bands up against Tony? If the majority alliance is over, Spencer and Tasha would be only too glad to join forces with Trish and target someone besides themselves for once. And with Tony holding onto those idols, I feel like it could be Woo's turn to be going home tomorrow night. This is just a guess, of course; he could be considered a non-threat, or Tony could hand him an idol at Tribal! And if Woo does make it to the end, I don't see him winning the game.
Chance to win: 5th best

Auction Results
It was officially a bad idea to draft any members of the Beauty tribe. With Jefra gone, Ethan is down to just 4 players to my 2, although Tasha has proved to be a wellspring of points by winning all those immunities, and he gets way more points than I do for all those jurors...we'll see how things end up.

The Solarrion Tribe prepares for reward on E11.

Marcus:
Spencer Bledsoe
Trish Hegardy
LJ McKanas
Morgan McLeod
Sarah Lacina
Total Score: 8

Ethan:
Tasha Fox (+2)
Kass McQuillen
Tony Vlachos
Woo HwangJefra Bland (+5)
Jeremiah Wood 
Total Score: 17

Be sure to check back tomorrow night for my recap, and stay tuned!

Power Rankings and Auction for Cagayan E10

Episode 10! Jeff can't believe it.

Episode 10! Can you believe it? We're heading into the final stretch of Cagayan, and down to the final 7 players. Time to continue the power rankings, auction results, and winner predictions. For the winner predictions, I'll be ranking the castaways based on who I think they can beat. For example, if I think someone can beat 2 of the castaways, then he/she is ranked 5th out of 7. (Image credit CBS)

Power Rankings

Last Week: I had Jeremiah at number 2. Ciera had him at six and Gordon Holmes at five...not looking so good for me.
Total Score: 68 points...Ciera has 75 and Gordon is at 81

This Week:

Five...in seven...equals in.

#1: Tony
Kind of an obvious ranking. Unless someone comes up with a crazy Erik-giving-up-immunity level of awesomeness plan this episode, Tony is guaranteed at least one more week. He's also at the top of the food chain right now, and can work with whoever he wants. Tony's made some big moves in this game, and so far they've paid off, so if he can make it to the end, I think he has a decent shot.
Chance to win: 3rd

#2: Woo
Woo's fate in this game has fluctuated with Tony's, and now that Tony is anchored down safely once again, Woo is too. Tony will likely decide which group loses a member this week (either by staying with his current alliance or flipping to Spencer and Tasha), and I can't imagine him making that decision without his trusty right-hand-man Woo...so Woo should end up on the right side of the numbers. The only situation in which I see Woo going home is the scenario I described on our podcast, where everyone unites against Tony and Woo, and split the vote 3-2-2. Tony plays the idol, and Woo goes home...but that's unlikely. Woo also has a fair chance in the finals if he's up against other non-strategic players.
Chance to win: 5th

#3: Trish

Trish is the one holding
it all together.

Trish has been a loyal, steadfast member of her alliance since the merge. She's the one holding it all together. This could set her up as a target, but Tony and Trish appear to be very close, and since I think Tony will decide who goes home, I don't think it will be Trish. If Tony does flip on his current alliance, he'll most likely want to target someone he likes less. Trish has been playing an impressive game from our standpoints, but I'm not sure how well she can communicate her gameplay to a jury.
Chance to win: 4th

#4: Kass
Chaos Kass has been laying low, and sadly (I had high hopes for Kass) has become the perfect vote to take to the end; no one likes her! This should at least keep her safe for the next week or so, and I think even if Spencer's plotting does get Tony to flip, Kass is more of a target for him than Trish but less than Jefra. But Jefra could win immunity, so you never know. And if Kass wants to have any hope of winning, she needs to get rid of someone like Tony and then own up to her mistakes in front of the jury...it's a long shot.
Chance to win: 7th

#5: Spencer

Spencer's edit is
still excellent.

I'm not sure whether the majority alliance would prefer to target Spencer or Tasha at this point. Tasha has won more immunities, but Spencer is the bigger strategic threat. Even though he's so low on the totem pole, Spencer's edit is still excellent, which leads me to believe that he won't be cut at Final 7. If he can appeal to Tony's paranoia, then he'll stay and regain the numbers, but if he fails, I think Tasha will take the fall. And if either he or Tasha make it to the end, I have no doubt that the jury will reward them. If they both make it together, Spencer's edit points to him taking the prize.
Chance to win: 1st

#6: Tasha
Tasha doesn't seem like she'll scramble quite as much as Spencer. She's playing a great under-the-radar social game, but that's all for naught when you're out of time and out of numbers. Spencer is a huge threat too, though, and his edit might have been misleading. Tasha also has a great chance to win immunity based on her past performances...again, I'm just ranking these two based on edits. But if Tasha survives to the Final Tribal Council, she's got a great underdog story to present to the jury and I think could beat anyone except possibly Spencer.
Chance to win: 2nd

#7: Jefra

If Jefra makes it to the end,
I see her getting 0 votes.

This might just be more wishful thinking on my part; I want the underdogs to stay in the game, and I want Tony to make a big move. Logically, they should get rid of Spencer or Tasha, but there's a lot of reasons for a Jefra boot when looking at emotional paranoia-freak Tony hiding in his Spy Shack. In the scenes from next episode, we see Spencer trying to convince Tony to vote "her" out, and I would have to assume that means Jefra. He wouldn't even be lying if he told Tony about the Final 4 deal; she made it and reneged on it, and even that could be enough for Tony to grab Woo and flip. If Jefra makes it to the end, I see her as joining the ranks of the Gervases, Sugars, and Beckys of the world--getting 0 votes, in other words. I do think she could beat Kass, though.
Chance to win: 6th

Auction Results

If you haven't been following along this whole time, Ethan and I did a podcast way back in February where we bid on all 18 players, and Ethan has had a much more successful experience. It's the first time since we merged that I didn't lose someone from my team, but it's still not looking good; Jeremiah became the 4th member of the jury, and Tasha won immunity.

The Solarrion Tribe prepares for its
very own Survivor auction.

Marcus:
Spencer Bledsoe
Trish Hegardy
LJ McKanas
Morgan McLeod
Sarah Lacina
Total Score: 8

Ethan:
Tasha Fox (+2)
Kass McQuillen
Jefra Bland
Tony Vlachos
Woo Hwang
Jeremiah Wood (+4)
Total Score: 10

Check back tomorrow night after the episode for my Survivor recap, and be sure to comment about my rankings; I'd love to hear from you. Stay tuned!

Power Rankings and Auction for E9

Time to predict another unpredictable week.

It's time to predict another unpredictable week of Survivor: Cagayan. If we arrive at an exciting ending, I think we can rank Cagayan up there with some of the best seasons of all time. Bearing in mind that I haven't watched every season (and plan on watching more over the off-season), my top three at the moment probably has to be Micronesia, Amazon, and HvV or China...but that could be challenged; we'll see.

Anyway, let's get into this. (Image credit CBS)

Power Rankings

Last Week: I put LJ in spot five, while Ciera had him at 7 and Gordon Holmes at 2.
Total Score: I now have 66 points.

This Week:

1: Spencer
The closer and closer we get to the end, the shinier and shinier Spencer's flawless edit is looking, and the more and more worried I get that this season is going to have a predictable winner. Couple that with the fact that Spencer still has an idol and (at least according to last week's votes) is back in the majority spot, and I think we can assure Spencer's safety for this week...sadly.
Chance to win: 1st/8

Jeremiah is a lesser threat
than Spencer or Tasha.

2: Jeremiah
I think that at this point, the other castaways have firmly identified Jeremiah as a lesser threat than Spencer or Tasha, and he's been pushed into obscurity. Spencer's right hand man is also safe this week, but be alarmed if we start to see a plethora of confessionals from him.
Chance to win: 8th

3: Kass
It's hard to envision a scenario in which Kass goes home next; the only plausible scenario I can come up with is if she has an extremely volatile reaction to being blindsided by Tony, which is not out of the question. Even though she, Trish, and Jefra are down in the numbers, alliances seem to be more fluid this season, and as Tony said earlier, alliances are built on trust, not numbers.
Chance to win: 6th

It's unlikely that the Ninja
will go home.

4: Woo
Anyone seeking to target Woo will try to go after Tony first, so it's unlikely that the Ninja will go home. But hey, Tony could win immunity, or he could find the OPHII. You never know.
Chance to win: 5th

5: Tasha
Even though we've seen very little from her, the other players have clearly marked out Tasha as a big threat to win the game, and this would seem to be very true considering the current jurors. With Spencer possessing the idol, I think that Tasha is the most likely candidate from her alliance to get the boot this week if Tony can somehow revive his alliance, a prospect that I find unlikely.
Chance to win: 2nd

Tony has a strong
relationship with Trish.

6: Trish
Trish is the figurehead of a dying alliance, so why isn't she at number 8? Well, first of all, I think that Tony has too strong of a relationship with Trish to want to send her home. They've been together since Day 1 as outsiders on the Aparri beach. And Trish will hopefully have enough sense to get over the blindside and continue to try working with Tony. Even if she fails, she can always talk to Spencer in the hopes of sending her longtime ally home.
Chance to win: 3rd

7: Jefra
Jefra's as big of a threat as Jeremiah is (the remaining Beauties are really boring, huh?), but she's on the outs. To make matters worse, she doesn't have as close of a connection with Tony or Woo as Trish does. Plus, she didn't meet or play with Tasha or Spencer before the swap, and it's clear that Jeremiah has forsaken his old tribal alliances, so Jefra has nowhere else to turn. Her closest ally was LJ, and now that he's gone, she's a sitting duck.

He's played hard and
he's played to win.

8: Tony
Tony may try to get rid of Jefra, he may try to vote out Trish...he might even target Spencer or Kass. But at the end of the episode, when all the dust's settled, I think it will be Tony himself who finds his torch snuffed. He's played hard and he's played to win, but big, flashy moves just aren't going to cut it this time. We already know that Spencer doesn't trust him, and now he's alienated his former alliance as well. If neither Spencer or Trish want to work with him (and they could actively target him), Woo and Tony will find themselves gone very fast.
Chance to win: 4th

Auction Results

Things are going from bad to worse for my team in this competition. Ethan hasn't lost a single player since the merge, while I'm down to two: Spencer and Trish. And Tasha won immunity last episode as well. Let's hope for a Trish immunity run and a Spencer/Trish final two, shall we?

Things are going from bad to worse.

Marcus:
Spencer Bledsoe
Trish Hegardy
LJ McKanas (+3)
Morgan McLeod
Sarah Lacina
Total Score: 8

Ethan:
Tasha Fox (+2)
Kass McQuillen
Jeremiah Wood
Jefra Bland
Tony Vlachos
Woo Hwang
Total Score: 4

I have a feeling it'll be a great episode. My prediction: Spencer, Trish, and Tony are the main players, with Kass as the coveted swing vote and the rest as loyal votes. Check back tomorrow night to see who comes out on top, and stay tuned for my episode recap!

Cagayan E8 Power Rankings And Auction Results

I'll start giving some speculation on chances to win as well.

Can you believe we're already at episode 8? Survivor: Cagayan is more than halfway over, and it's time to rank the players for this week. I'll also update you on the auction/draft results between myself and Ethan.

And now that we're starting to get into the mid-merge stage of the game, I'll start giving some speculation on chances to win as well. But these rankings will remain in order of least to most likely to go out this week. (Image credit CBS)

Power Rankings

Last Week: I had Morgan at number 7, Ciera had her at 5, and Gordon Holmes put her at 9.
Total Score: 61 points

This Week:

Jefra is safe cruising along.

1: Jefra
Still in spot number one just like last week. After a slight scare at the merge, Jefra is safe cruising along as the least likely target of the majority alliance. She's going to have to make some sort of move soon if she wants a chance to win the game, but at least she can get to the end as a goat.
Chance to win: 9th best in the game

2: Trish
Maybe a little more emotional, a little bigger of a target than Jefra...but Trish is still not anyone's first choice to be voted off, no matter whether her alliance crumbles or not. Trish was getting a fantastic edit for a couple of weeks, but if we don't hear from her for one more week at all like last episode, she doesn't have a chance.
Chance to win: 7th

Kass is actually in a decent
position until Spencer's
group takes control.

3: Kass
Kass has really caused some waves these past few weeks, but I think Spencer needs her too much to get rid of her, and according to the previews, Tony has bigger fish to fry. Despite her flipping and swing vote status, Kass is actually in a decent position until Spencer's group takes control (if that happens). If she makes it to FTC, however, it'll be a different story.
Chance to win: 4th

4: Spencer
Spencer's a smart guy, and having an idol at this relatively late stage of the game when nobody else does can be critical. I don't think he'd waste it on someone who's not a target or be blindsided with it, so that idol is at least a guaranteed one week immunity. We'll see if he's actually able to pull his alliance back into the majority.
Chance to win: 1st

Do you really want to go up
against LJ in the final
immunity challenge?

5: LJ
It seems like LJ should be targeted; he was hiding an immunity idol from his fellow tribemates, lasted late into the immunity challenge last week, and used his master puzzle skills to win reward. Do you really want to go up against LJ in the final immunity challenge? But no one's coming after him, and I think he's safe for another week. Again, whether he can win the game if he's not perceived as a threat at all is a totally different matter.
Chance to win: 5th

6: Jeremiah
We thought that people would be gunning for Jeremiah after the merge, and were speculating about his physical prowess. But really, he hasn't competed spectacularly, and has done as little as Morgan in terms of strategy, so I think he'll be ignored while there are more tempting targets for Tony's alliance like Spencer and Tasha. No one has said that Jeremiah doesn't do anything around camp, but there's a general perception that he's about as bright as a boulder.
Chance to win: 8th

I'd bet on not seeing Woo's
torch snuffed this week.

7: Woo
It looks like Woo's athleticism and likableness may finally make him a target this week, but he's shown that while he may not be the most game-savvy player, he could be willing to make a few moves and scramble to save himself. I'd bet on not seeing Woo's torch snuffed this week.
Chance to win: 6th

8: Tasha
The previews seem to suggest that the Solana alliance could finally crumble, but if it doesn't (and the previews usually lie, of course), Tasha is the most likely candidate for elimination. She was perceived as a threat last week by the majority alliance, and if Spencer wins immunity again or plays his idol, she could be gone, as Solana now has the numbers to split the votes.
Chance to win: 3rd

I'm willing to guess that
Tony's alliance will turn on
him sooner than Woo.

9: Tony
Remember back in Caramoan, where we saw a preview showing Andrea lobbying hard to blindside Brenda? Well, do you remember what actually happened in the episode? Yep. That's right. Andrea went home. When you try too hard to get someone out, other people see you as a threat to their games, and that's exactly what Tony seems to be doing this week. I'm willing to guess that Tony's alliance will turn on him sooner than they turn on Woo, so he may be going home this week.
Chance to win: 2nd

Auction Results

It was another disappointing week for my hand-picked Survivor team. Sure, Spencer won immunity, but Morgan was sent home, making her the second member of the jury and leaving me with only three remaining players against Ethan's six. I'm ahead for the moment, but Ethan's surely going to catch up.

Spencer won immunity and Morgan was sent home.

Marcus:
Spencer Bledsoe (+2)
Morgan McLeod (+2)
LJ McKanas
Trish Hegardy
Sarah Lacina
Total Score: 5

Ethan:
Tasha Fox
Kass McQuillen
Jeremiah Wood
Jefra Bland
Tony Vlachos
Woo Hwang
Total Score: 2

Tomorrow I'll have my weekly post-episode recap on the 8th episode of Survivor: Cagayan, so stay tuned!

Power Rankings and Auction for Cagayan E7

I shall attempt to predict how the next vote will go.

Now that the merge is upon us, my Tuesday post will have two parts: a power rankings of the contestants each week (following Gordon Holmes' rules)  and the results of the auction/draft that I did with Ethan at the beginning of the season, which will be below. (Image credit CBS)

Power Rankings 

After a wild merge episode, I shall attempt to predict how the next vote will go...which seems to be impossible. There are so many possibilities: Kass could stay with Solana or swing back to Aparri and force a tie, someone could play the super idol...who knows. I'm just going to give it my best guess.

Last Week: I had Sarah at 6th, Ciera had her in 8th, and Gordon in 5th.

Total Score: 54 points

This Week:

1: Jefra

She had a bit of a scare last week, but with both idols flushed, I think she can cruise along with the numbers...and even if Aparri gains some ground, they'll be going after the big dogs.

It seems to be heavily
hinted that Woo will find
the OPHII this week.

2: Trish

Trish's edit has been nothing but kind these past few weeks, and she doesn't seem to be playing as emotional a game now that Lindsey's left. I think Trish just needs to bide her time until F7 or so.

3: Woo

Woo is definitely a huge challenge threat, as I predicted, but he's not viewed as a social or strategic threat, so he's not a target. It also seems to be heavily hinted that Woo will find the OPHII this week.

4: LJ

LJ is actually in a decent spot; he's the right hand man for Tony and is securely in the majority alliance. Even though I keep saying he's a huge threat, he doesn't seem to be in danger of going home.

Kass' long term
game has been
shot to pieces.

5: Kass
Even though I think Kass' long term game has been shot to pieces, for the next vote or two, she should be ok, because both sides will need her for the number. Even Aparri, which she betrayed, needs the vote and has to trust her if she says she'll vote with them, because they're going to be that desperate. Unless both Aparri and Solana team up to vote her out, Kass is safe this week.

6: Tasha
Tasha would seem to be the least obvious member of the minority alliance, and as such should escape the vote this week. If there's a Pagonging, though, sooner or later she'll be in trouble.

7: Morgan

The previews will
keep her safe for
one more week.

Morgan has been playing a smart, quiet game since the swap, but the previews for next episode show things heating up. I think the previews will also keep her safe for one more week, however, because we know not to trust what they tell us. That being said, there have been incidents (Ciera voting out her mom) that have been hinted at in previews and then came to pass, so we'll see.

8: Spencer
It would seem like Spencer is the first target of the new Solana alliance, but I'm going to trust in his rock-solid edit and say that Spencer will not leave the game this week. Of course, I don't like that he's getting such a strong winner's edit, but he is, so I think he can go in the safe column (Even though it might mean a pagonging, I would be excited in the short term if Spencer does leave this week because it would mean the winner spot is wide open).

9: Tony
Tony...what a character. I wouldn't call him great at the strategic game (although he made a good move with the idol last week), but he's definitely trying to play and I'm sure he's secured himself a returnee spot. All of these moves and machinations, however, have made him a target, and if Aparri does regain control this week (through Kass flipping or the OPHII), they'll most likely be going after Tony.

Jeremiah has a greater
than 1/10 shot to
be booted this week.

10: Jeremiah
This would be where I'd put Spencer, but Jeremiah's edit is relatively nonexistent, so I think he's more likely to go home. And out of the Aparri 4, he's definitely the least interesting, so I won't be too sad if Jeremiah goes home this week. He's thought to be good in the challenges and doesn't have any close allies, so Jeremiah has a greater than 1/10 shot to be booted this week.






Draft Results

Now that the merge is here, it's time to check up on the teams we had going into last week's episode. 5 of my 7 picks from the auction survived the pre-merge, and 6 of Ethan's 11 made it through, so I nearly caught up.

It's time to check up on the teams.

Marcus:
Spencer Bledsoe
Morgan McLeod
LJ McKanas
Trish Hegardy
Sarah Lacina (+1)
Total Score: 1

Ethan:
Tasha Fox
Kass McQuillen
Jeremiah Wood
Jefra Bland
Tony Vlachos
Woo Hwang (+2)
Total Score: 2

Both hidden immunity idols were played and wasted, so no points there, but Woo won immunity, giving Ethan two points. And Sarah became Juror #1, giving me a grand total of 1 point for my Sarah pick.

Ethan leads two to one. Let's see what happens this week; it's not looking good, as I'm down to just four players.

After the Survivor episode tomorrow night I'll have a recap up for you, so stay tuned!

Power Rankings for Cagayan Episode 6

The merger is upon us!

It's merge time, folks! That's right; the merger is upon us, and it's time to rank the castaways. Who will be voted out first after the merge? Let's find out.
Last Week: I had Lindsey in spot 13, and Alexis at 9th. Ciera had Alexis at 10 and Lindsey at 12, and Gordon went 12-13 with Alexis and Lindsey.
Total Score: I now have 48 points to Ciera's 49 and Gordon's 60.

This Week:




1: Kass
Kass maintains her top spot on my list this week. She's the least obvious player in the majority alliance, and I'm basing most of my ratings this week on my projected outcome after the merge--the Aparri alliance will keep the swing voters and vote out someone from Solana.

A relatively under
the radar player.

2: Tasha
A little more threatening in the challenges than Kass, perhaps, but still a relatively under-the-radar player who should be safe this week.

3: Jefra
Even if Solana does lose a member and maybe even gets pagonged, who's going after Jefra? She will sail quietly through the early merge.

4: Morgan
At last, Morgan can sit back and take a breather. Her name wasn't even brought up last week, which bodes well for her chances. And although LJ and Jefra may still have a bone to pick with her, I can't imagine she'll be their first target.

5: Spencer
Spencer is in the driver's seat of the alliance of 6, from what we can tell. This is most likely good for him, but it also presents Spencer as a bit more of a threat than some of the others, and he may be one of the targets of the Solana alliance.

A swing vote like Sarah
will be cherished.

6: Sarah
A swing vote like Sarah will be cherished, not targeted, although swing votes have gone home before. Just ask Christy Smith. Still, it's unlikely Solana and Aparri will come together to vote her out.

7: Jeremiah
The same goes for Jeremiah, although he's less liked and maybe less trusted by his current tribe than Sarah. Plus, Tony already tried going after him once, and may want to finish the job.

8: Trish
If Trish was playing more like Sherri (and for the record, I'm glad she's not!), I think she might be up their with Jefra, but she's not. Trish is a lot more aggressive, and is one of our villains for the season. If she keeps her head down, she can hide behind bigger targets like Tony and Woo, but she won't.

LJ is simply too big of
a target to last very long.

9: LJ
LJ is a cunning, quiet observer with an idol, so you'd think that might make him safe. But LJ is also a huge physical threat, as has been observed by every single player in all the tribal challenges now. LJ is simply too big of a target to last very long.

10: Tony
Wheeling and dealing Tony may soon find himself the victim of a blindside if he still thinks he has Sarah in his pocket. What he does have in his pocket, however, is an idol, so that might buy him an extra three days, but I still think his days are numbered.

11: Woo

Woo may see his torch
snuffed this week.

Poor Woo. He's a strong force in challenges, part of the minority alliance, and doesn't have an idol or much of an idea of the strategic game. I think that sadly, Woo may see his torch snuffed this week.

We'll have to watch the episode tomorrow night to see what actually goes down. It's entirely possible Sarah and Jeremiah may flip back to Solana, and then who knows what could ensue. I'll have a recap of the episode up tomorrow night as well, so stay tuned!

Cagayan Episode 5 Power Rankings

It's time for the pre-merge edition of the Survivor power rankings. With (probably) just one episode left before Solana and Aparri become one, let's see where the castaways stand. (Image credit CBS)

Last Week: I smartly had Cliff in spot 14. Ciera had him at spot 3 and Gordon at 8.

Total Score: 35 points

This Week

1: Kass

The least conspicuous, most shrewd member of the majority alliance appears to be riding it out till the merge. Kass could be in a great spot to get all the way to the end; who's ever going to target her?

Kass could be in a great spot to get all the way to the end.

2: Tasha

Also part of the strongest alliance in Cagayan, Tasha would be slightly more of a target if the other four ganged up against Old Luzon, but come on...that's not going to happen.

3: Spencer

I don't think Spencer would do something as dumb as flipping to Morgan or Alexis, but that's why he's 3 instead of 1. Plus, again, more of a threat. But really, Spencer's in a great position.

4: Sarah

Sarah should be able to sit back, relax, and coast to the merge. Any likely targets this week in Aparri are going to emerge from the torn apart Beauty tribe, so Sarah can use this time to form stronger bonds with the Brains.

5: Tony

If Solana goes to Tribal again, the majority alliance looks pretty solid. And even if something insane
happened (look at last week) Trish or LJ will take the fall, not Tony.

The majority alliance on Solana looks pretty solid.

6: Trish

Trish really became the "Arthur of her own fate" last week, and as a result has a four-strong alliance against Woo, who doesn't have a clue, and Lindsey, who's ready to quit. I don't know if her group will stick together after the merge, but she should be fine until then.

7: LJ

LJ is an enormous target and is have to play very, very well once the merge comes, but for now, Trish and Tony (plus his idol) will keep him safe.

8: Jefra

Jefra's just being dragged along with the rest of them as a solid number. She's smart to stick with LJ, who'll provide a much bigger target come the merge.

Jefra's just being dragged along with the rest of them as a solid number.

9: Alexis
It's extremely hard to say which of the three Beauty members on Aparri is in the most trouble. Spencer was disconcerted by Alexis' eagerness to turn on her old tribemates, but she can offer the Brains numbers in the form of LJ and Jefra, and I think is smart enough to stay.

10: Morgan

If this was Big Brother and there were no edits, I would say that Morgan might be the one to go from Aparri this week. But she's been built up a lot, with her story consistently being referenced in the previews even if it has nothing to do with the episode. I think (and hope) Morgan can make it to the merge, where we can see her story pay off in a more satisfying manner.

11: Jeremiah

So that leaves us with Jeremiah, who isn't playing the social game, has already turned on Morgan and Alexis, and could be a big challenge threat after the merge. According to a Secret Scene, apparently Kass likes him, but I don't think that will stop his torch from being snuffed if Aparri goes to Tribal.

12: Woo

If Solana goes to Tribal Council, however, Woo is a prime target. Trish does hate Lindsey, but it would be much smarter to vote out such a huge immunity threat as Woo right before the merge. I hate to put you so far down, Woo, but you're out of friends.

13: Lindsey

She might quit, she might attack Trish and be removed from the game, or she might simply be voted out, but one way or another, I think Lindsey is leaving the game this week. And I'll say it again: good riddance.

I think Lindsey is leaving the game this week.

Check back tomorrow to see how things unfold on the fifth episode of what has been an amazing season so far. I'll be posting my recap of the episode tomorrow night, so stay tuned!