Cagayan Finale Power Rankings

The eve of the finale is upon us.

The eve of the finale is upon us...and it's time for one last round of power rankings and predictions for what has been a truly incredible season. Gordon Holmes hasn't released his power rankings for this episode, but I'm relatively sure that when they get down to the finale, they put people in order of likeliness of winning, so that's what I'll do as well. If that's not what they end up doing, I'll also write a list of normal power rankings just in case.

As I forewarned, it's been a busy couple of weeks (and still is). Luckily, we were able to continue getting you relatively timely Survivor recaps, and posted our scrutiny of the penultimate episode on Sunday. Ethan and I haven't had a chance to record the Amazing Race finale podcast yet, so I can't give you a time on when that will come out, but hopefully we'll get a lot of extensive finale coverage for Survivor at least; stay tuned for updates. Alright, let's get into this.

Power Rankings

Last Week: I had Trish in spot 5, and as per the rules, I get double the points. Ciera and Gordon both had her at 2.
Total Score: I now have 95 points going into the finale...Gordon has 103 and Ciera has 90.

This Week:

1: Spencer
Spencer has prevailed this season against the odds, and going into the finale episode, he's formed a voting block of three and managed to break up Tony's alliance. He's a huge threat and a likable underdog, so it would be utter folly for the other players to let him reach the end. And yet, I think he will. Spencer has proven to be a beast in challenges and can win immunity when he needs it. He only needs to survive 2 more Tribal Councils, and if Spencer's chances were infinitesimal before, surely they're better now, so close to the end. And if Spencer does make it to the end of the game, and gets to face the jury, he wins, barring an epic Amanda-choke. He has very few (if any) enemies on the jury and quite a lot of friends. He's made some good moves and been someone for the jury to root for. My official prediction for tomorrow night is that Spencer wins Survivor: Cagayan.

2: Tony

Certainly the most willing to
make big moves.

What a great cast this season, right? And possibly the best casting choice of all was Tony Vlachos. Not the best player, not the strongest,  not the smartest this season, but certainly the most willing to make big moves. And in an era of Survivor where big moves are encouraged and looked upon with favor, Tony has a great shot to win this game. His moves may not have always been right, but he managed to wheel and deal himself to the Final 4, with three other players who never had as firm a grip on the game as Tony. There are certainly some bitter jurors (Jefra, Sarah) awaiting Tony at the Final Tribal Council, but if he makes it there, I think they reward his diabolical plans; he can beat anyone but Spencer.

3: Woo
Woo seems like the fish out of water in such a strategic Final 4, but just because Woo hasn't been ruling the roost doesn't mean he isn't deserving of the title of Sole Survivor. Since Day 1, he's journeyed alongside other people as their wingmen, helping them through the game and being a loyal, dependable ally. Woo isn't afraid of flipping the game around; he's done that twice so far with Tony. He is by far the most likable, lovable player left in the game, and could have a lot of sympathetic votes on the jury. I can certainly see an embittered Jefra or Kass voting for Woo over Tony any day. Who doesn't want to reward the nice guy with a million bucks? At the end of the day, it comes down to who you enjoyed being around on the island, and for that, Woo is your guy.

4: Kass

Kass has fought tooth and nail.

Kass has fought tooth and nail to carve out her own position in the game. Several times, she could have preceded with a larger alliance (Aparri 6, Brawn 3), but chose to flip the script and be the "arthur of her own destiny." Sure, she's made a lot of enemies on the jury, but she's made some strategic decisions that could see her rewarded. Making Tony look like a bully and avoiding a potential blindside by the Sarah, Spencer, Jeremiah group talked about at the merge were both smart moves. That being said, I think that Kass will have a very steep uphill battle against any of the other three at the Final Tribal Council; she'll need a monumental slip-up to take control...but it could happen.

Auction Results

If you've been following along throughout the season, you know that Ethan and I held an auction at the beginning of the season where we each bid on the Survivors and drafted a team, that earned points throughout the season. Ethan completely destroyed me in the draft, but things evened up by the merge. Since then, however, Ethan has pulled back into the lead. If Spencer wins the game, though, I might have a chance...otherwise, he probably wins. I'll include the rules for the game and the results from last week.

2 pts if one of your players wins individual immunity

3 pts if one of your players uses the HII to cancel a majority of votes against a contestant

0 pts if your player uses the OPHII

1 pt for voting out the person who used the OPHII or possessed it while being voted out (very unlikely, I know)

1 pt per jury member number (i.e. 3rd jury member gets 3 pts)

1 pt for winning individual reward

9 pts for making it to the Final Tribal Council

2 pts per vote received at the Final Tribal Council

The final 4.

Marcus:
Spencer Bledsoe (+2)
Trish Hegardy (+7)
LJ McKanas
Morgan McLeod
Sarah Lacina
Total Score: 19

Ethan:
Kass McQuillen
Tony Vlachos (+1)
Woo Hwang
Tasha Fox 
Jefra Bland 
Jeremiah Wood 
Total Score: 24

That's it for the eve-of-the-finale post; check back soon for a recap...I think it's going to be a great episode!