Recapping Week 9 and the Final 4 on BBCAN

Neda's victory is all but assured.

After another great week of Big Brother Canada 2, we are down to just four players! Can you believe it? A week from now, it'll all be over. But before that happens, let's recap week number nine. (Image credit Slice)

After getting past the final 5, I want to say (knock on wood) Neda's victory is all but assured. She's been playing hard and very, very well these past few weeks, and her use of reverse psychology on Jon is a great example.

Jon was the one who proposed the idea of nominating Heather and trying to take her out this week, although Neda secretly had this idea as well. Smartly, she played down the plan and expressed her distrust of Adel and Sabrina instead, which only served to make Jon even more sure of his plan and placed all of the blame and commitment for the move squarely on his shoulders.

I actually got worried that she was arguing for Heather to stay too well and that he would actually give in and agree with it, but Neda knows what she's doing. Heather went up on the block this week and it seemed certain that she was going home.

Sadly, Heather won the POV...and this was the point where I thought Neda was in the most danger she's been this whole game. Jon had to nominate either Adel or Neda as the replacement, and Adel's arguments made a lot of sense.

By all rights, Jon should have put up (and gotten out) Neda this week, but Adel's pitch just didn't get through. Neda deserves a lot of credit here as well; she has Jon so reliant and wrapped around her finger that there was no way he was sending her home. This is a huge mistake for him; I think this was the turning point and that Jon can no longer win this game, unless he wins both of the final HOHs.

Let's talk about the Loved Ones twist. There have been a lot of twists this season, from the War Room and the Secret Veto to Canada's HOH and the Letters From Home. And let's not forget about the Instant Eviction that sent Allison packing.

It's always good when a show is able
to evoke emotion from its contestants.

Even though it's been a twist-heavy Big Brother, I'm finding that I'm thoroughly enjoying most--or even all--of what they through at the Houseguests. Everything has been very well executed, and the Loved Ones was no different.

It's always good when a show--whether it's Survivor or Big Brother (or rarely, TAR)--is able to evoke emotion from its contestants. Survivor uses letters from home infrequently to produce this result, and also often has a family visit that brings drama, emotion, and tears. Big Brother, while it does have HOH letters from family members, doesn't make good use of this...at least, the U.S. version doesn't.

Big Brother Canada, however, used the loved ones to its advantage and we were treated to a very interesting scene where each Houseguest got to spend two minutes communicating with their loved one through a glass wall. The whole way the twist was orchestrated, like having the 5 screens deliver a message and requiring a punishment, was really well done.

I must say, though, that some of the punishments seemed a lot more severe than others. Adel couldn't sleep for 36 hours, and Jon was in solitary confinement. Sabrina's punishment of not eating for a week seemed bad, but it turns out she's just on slop. Neda lost her stuff, but only or a week, and all Heather has to suffer is not being able to enter the HOH room.

Adel was evicted, which hurts Jon
immensely and really helps out Neda.

Back to the strategy. Adel was evicted, which hurts Jon immensely and really helps out Neda; Adel was the only player who definitely wouldn't have taken her to the end. Going into this next HOH, I don't think it really matters who wins it, because the Veto is much more important, but it does guarantee you safety. And as I said last week, throwing competitions is a thing of the past. Everyone should be trying their hardest to be safe from the vote until the very end.

I think Neda's next move has to be to get rid of Jon. Yes, he'll be pissed, but she will have taken down one of the game's biggest players (and ostensibly, Canada's favorite). If she can cut Jon at Final 4, it's a matter of choosing between Heather or Sabrina to sit next to in the Final 2 (if Neda wins the last HOH). And I think that even if Neda doesn't win the final HOH, Heather and Sabrina won't take each other, so Neda should be guaranteed a chance to plead her case if she make it to Final 3.

It's hard to say whether it's better to take Heather or Sabrina. Heather was a much better player, and people could respect that, but I think Sabrina has more automatic jury votes, like Rachelle and Allison. At this point, Heather could be Neda's best bet at winning this game, although I think (and hope) that she could beat anyone.

It's critical for Jon to win Veto.

But what are the other Houseguests' paths to victory?

Jon has the best shot, aside from Neda. He can't win HOH this week, so it's critical for him to win Veto (even though he doesn't know it). If he does win Veto and gets to vote, he should take out Neda and then take Heather with him to the Final 2. I think he would certainly get Canada's vote in that scenario, and probably almost everyone else's as well. I just don't think Jon is willing to cut ties with Neda, and that's really going to be his undoing in the game.

Sabrina has really lucked out here. Yes, she's employed some strategy, but it's mostly been a case of her being saved when a bigger target is voted out. If she wants to win this game, she needs to win HOH at this point in case someone like Heather or Jon isn't willing to take out Neda at Final 4. Then she should (like everyone else) be targeting Neda, although if she gets rid of Jon, she doesn't have to face him in the last HOH.

Everyone needs to win the Final 4 HOH.

And I highly doubt that Sabrina can win the Final HOH against him (or Neda or Heather for that matter), so she needs to count on her relationships to get her to the end. She needs to really hammer home that her gameplay has been lackluster and worse than the others, and get them to bring her along as a goat. If she makes it to the Final 2, though, I really do think she has a chance. With 2 votes already in her pocket (and 1 in the other person's, because she won't get Canada's vote), she just needs two more, and I can certainly see Arlie voting for her.

Heather is going to have a difficult time making it to the end. I think she has the worst chance of winning if she gets there as well. Her move is to take out Neda at Final 4 and then beat Jon for the Final HOH. Or, now that I think about it, get rid of Jon earlier so she has a better chance of winning that last competition. Then she can vote out Neda and plead her case against Sabrina.

This has been a really great season so far, and we're entering the final stretch. The endgame of Big Brother Canada is very strategic in nature--far more so than Survivor. Check back soon for more BBCAN coverage (there'll probably be at least 2 more posts this season) and tomorrow I'll have a Survivor article for you, so stay tuned!