Power Rankings and Auction for Cagayan E7

I shall attempt to predict how the next vote will go.

Now that the merge is upon us, my Tuesday post will have two parts: a power rankings of the contestants each week (following Gordon Holmes' rules)  and the results of the auction/draft that I did with Ethan at the beginning of the season, which will be below. (Image credit CBS)

Power Rankings 

After a wild merge episode, I shall attempt to predict how the next vote will go...which seems to be impossible. There are so many possibilities: Kass could stay with Solana or swing back to Aparri and force a tie, someone could play the super idol...who knows. I'm just going to give it my best guess.

Last Week: I had Sarah at 6th, Ciera had her in 8th, and Gordon in 5th.

Total Score: 54 points

This Week:

1: Jefra

She had a bit of a scare last week, but with both idols flushed, I think she can cruise along with the numbers...and even if Aparri gains some ground, they'll be going after the big dogs.

It seems to be heavily
hinted that Woo will find
the OPHII this week.

2: Trish

Trish's edit has been nothing but kind these past few weeks, and she doesn't seem to be playing as emotional a game now that Lindsey's left. I think Trish just needs to bide her time until F7 or so.

3: Woo

Woo is definitely a huge challenge threat, as I predicted, but he's not viewed as a social or strategic threat, so he's not a target. It also seems to be heavily hinted that Woo will find the OPHII this week.

4: LJ

LJ is actually in a decent spot; he's the right hand man for Tony and is securely in the majority alliance. Even though I keep saying he's a huge threat, he doesn't seem to be in danger of going home.

Kass' long term
game has been
shot to pieces.

5: Kass
Even though I think Kass' long term game has been shot to pieces, for the next vote or two, she should be ok, because both sides will need her for the number. Even Aparri, which she betrayed, needs the vote and has to trust her if she says she'll vote with them, because they're going to be that desperate. Unless both Aparri and Solana team up to vote her out, Kass is safe this week.

6: Tasha
Tasha would seem to be the least obvious member of the minority alliance, and as such should escape the vote this week. If there's a Pagonging, though, sooner or later she'll be in trouble.

7: Morgan

The previews will
keep her safe for
one more week.

Morgan has been playing a smart, quiet game since the swap, but the previews for next episode show things heating up. I think the previews will also keep her safe for one more week, however, because we know not to trust what they tell us. That being said, there have been incidents (Ciera voting out her mom) that have been hinted at in previews and then came to pass, so we'll see.

8: Spencer
It would seem like Spencer is the first target of the new Solana alliance, but I'm going to trust in his rock-solid edit and say that Spencer will not leave the game this week. Of course, I don't like that he's getting such a strong winner's edit, but he is, so I think he can go in the safe column (Even though it might mean a pagonging, I would be excited in the short term if Spencer does leave this week because it would mean the winner spot is wide open).

9: Tony
Tony...what a character. I wouldn't call him great at the strategic game (although he made a good move with the idol last week), but he's definitely trying to play and I'm sure he's secured himself a returnee spot. All of these moves and machinations, however, have made him a target, and if Aparri does regain control this week (through Kass flipping or the OPHII), they'll most likely be going after Tony.

Jeremiah has a greater
than 1/10 shot to
be booted this week.

10: Jeremiah
This would be where I'd put Spencer, but Jeremiah's edit is relatively nonexistent, so I think he's more likely to go home. And out of the Aparri 4, he's definitely the least interesting, so I won't be too sad if Jeremiah goes home this week. He's thought to be good in the challenges and doesn't have any close allies, so Jeremiah has a greater than 1/10 shot to be booted this week.






Draft Results

Now that the merge is here, it's time to check up on the teams we had going into last week's episode. 5 of my 7 picks from the auction survived the pre-merge, and 6 of Ethan's 11 made it through, so I nearly caught up.

It's time to check up on the teams.

Marcus:
Spencer Bledsoe
Morgan McLeod
LJ McKanas
Trish Hegardy
Sarah Lacina (+1)
Total Score: 1

Ethan:
Tasha Fox
Kass McQuillen
Jeremiah Wood
Jefra Bland
Tony Vlachos
Woo Hwang (+2)
Total Score: 2

Both hidden immunity idols were played and wasted, so no points there, but Woo won immunity, giving Ethan two points. And Sarah became Juror #1, giving me a grand total of 1 point for my Sarah pick.

Ethan leads two to one. Let's see what happens this week; it's not looking good, as I'm down to just four players.

After the Survivor episode tomorrow night I'll have a recap up for you, so stay tuned!