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| I want to take some time to analyze the moves that were made. |
But before too much time has passed, I want to take some time to analyze the moves that were made and being talked about on this week's episode in lieu of the traditional in-depth article.
I already spoke about my feelings on this great episode on my Wednesday night recap, so for the most part I'm going to focus on the strategic moves being made. Let's count how many errors each person made and at the end we'll see who played the worst this episodes. We should also keep track of the people making some smart plays.
Kass's conversation with Sarah: who's to blame?
Obviously, both Kass and Sarah made a lot of wrong moves this week, but I'm going to say that Kass actually made more mistakes, even though Sarah was on the receiving end of the snuffer.
Kass and Sarah are talking out on the beach before the tribes merge, and are discussing the social dynamics that will occur after Solana arrives and how new-Aparri needs to stick together. And Kass, with her predictable brutal honesty, says something along the lines of "You haven't proved yourself, so I don't trust you."
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| Sarah waffles between the two alliances. |
Maybe you don't trust her, Kass. Maybe you place more faith in Morgan and Jeremiah, who had no qualms about voting out Alexis the night before. But you really don't want to say that to Sarah's face! If you're worried that someone in your alliance is going to flip, telling them that you don't trust them just makes them more likely to flip!
For her part, though, Sarah makes a lot of blunders as well. She waffles between the two alliances as only the great fallen swing votes of history (Big Tom, Christy Smith) can. Apart from insisting that Tony and LJ are the only two people who absolutely cannot have idols (I really thought she had decided to go with Tony and was lying at this point, it was so laughable), she completely refuses to vote for anyone but the two of them.
After realizing that Kass doesn't fully trust her, Sarah should be taking all the steps possible to make sure she's in good with the Brains...refusing to vote for some of her old tribemates is definitely not helping. It sent Kass several red flags, and coupled with the apparent sub-alliance Sarah was developing with Spencer and Jeremiah, put Chaos Kass over the edge.
Moves Made:
Kass
- Too honest with Sarah (-1)
- Too paranoid about her flipping (-1)
Sarah
- Waffles with Tony/Kass (-1)
- Refuses to vote for Trish or Jefra (-1)
Tasha intervenes between the sibling rivalry
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| Tasha smartly attempts to placate Sarah. |
The second conversation with Kass and Sarah occurs alongside Tasha, who's mediating their dispute. Tasha smartly attempts to placate Sarah and makes her feel included and powerful in the Aparri alliance. This certainly soothes Sarah, but it ruffles (rustles!) Kass' feathers.
Kass starts to act like a little kid who's upset with her mom (Tasha) supporting her sister (Sarah) over herself. She really needed to realize that Tasha was just doing this to make the swing vote feel wanted, but she felt insecure and that was also a contributing factor in her flip.
Moves Made
Kass
- Feels insecure about her position and worries Tasha is against her (-1)
Tasha
- Doesn't talk to Kass afterwards and reassure her (-1)
- Reassures Sarah that she's in control (+1)
Immunity Challenge
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| Woo wears shoes. |
Pretty self-explanatory, right? The other players were given the option to wear shoes or go barefoot...and shoes was obviously the right way to go.
Moves Made
Woo
- Wears shoes (+1)
Before the vote
After several more conversations with all interested parties, Sarah eventually decides to stick with her Aparri alliance. A lot of people probably thought this was a good decision, but I really think that she should have gone with Tony because there's no way Sarah would ever be part of the Final Three of that alliance. This is also the point where Sarah mentions the impossibility of Tony or LJ possessing an idol.
Tony tries to convince her otherwise, but Sarah's not listening to all the wise words he's saying to her. So he turns things over to Trish, who approaches Kass and says she'll do whatever Kass wants...which works!
Moves Made
Tony
- Poor lobbying for the swing vote (-1)
Sarah
- Sticks with the Brains (-1)
Trish
- Realizes she needs to talk to Kass and has established a good relationship with her (+1)
- Gives all the power to Kass and convinces her to flip (+1)
At Tribal Council
Here's where the fireworks really begin. After LJ mentions he's not sure if there are actually idols in the game (wisely lying through his teeth), Tony proclaims. "There's idols. Cause I got one." Spencer then goads him to pull it out and show everyone, which really was the right move.
Tony was the primary target, and by waving the idol in Aparri's faces, he throws their whole plan off balance. If they hadn't had a backup, they might have had a hard time choosing a new target at Tribal Council. I also think it was definitely smart to play the idol on LJ instead of himself; it effectively ensured that both Tony and LJ were safe.
What wasn't such a hot idea was for LJ to then play the idol on Tony. LJ, who's proven himself a smart player in the past, was probably caught up in the heat of the moment. He should have realized that Tony threatening to play the idol already guaranteed his safety.
So Solana wasted two idols, and Aparri would have been fine if Kass hadn't flipped! She made an irrevocable, terrible move, switching out a secure final three alliance inside the majority alliance for number 6 of a new alliance...all because she didn't like Sarah. Kass, what are you thinking?!? But thank you for making things interesting.
Moves Made
Tony
- Threatens the use of his idol (+1)
- Plays it on LJ (+1)
LJ
- Plays his idol on Tony (-1)
Kass
- Flips on her alliance (-1)
So when we add everything up here, it looks like Tony failed to convince Sarah to vote with them but made up for it with some smart idol trickery (+1 overall), Tasha worked hard to keep Sarah but failed to keep Chaos Kass (0 overall), LJ made a really bad decision that ended up working out alright but wasted an idol (-1), Woo made a good call in the immunity challenge (+1), Trish saved the day for Solana (+2), and Kass and Sarah were, of course, the big losers of the episode.
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| I really have no way to predict the course of this season, which speaks to how good it is. |
Sarah played terribly by not swearing on her badge (which she was unwilling to do, and Tony exploited) and making Tony think she was with him (-3 overall), but Kass was the one making the most dumb decisions (-4) and dooming her game. Although I guess after looking it over, they both performed pretty poorly.
So what's next? It looks like someone will be finding the OPHII, which maybe will save us from a pagoning will be terrible. Other than that, I think Tony's alliance is in a relatively good position moving forward, but Kass could just as easily swing back to the Brains (they'll have to accept her; they need the vote!) and change the game around again.
I really have no way to predict the course of this season, which speaks to how good it is. All I can say is that even though his alliance is crumbling, Spencer's edit is still solid and I see him as the potential winner (unfortunately).
Tomorrow I'll have a BBCAN recap up, so stay tuned!
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