Top 3 Survivor Auctions

Nobag

With this past episode of Survivor: Cagayan featuring an auction, I decided that now would be a perfect opportunity to go over some of the greatest auctions in Survivor history. The top 3 (in my opinion) Survivor auctions really put Cagayan's to shame. I'll go over each of them and mention some of the highlights. (Image credit CBS and Survivor Wikia)




#3: Survivor: Gabon
At Final 7, the Nobag Tribe (Gabon spelled backwards) held its Survivor Auction. Gabon's auction is mostly memorable for the great Cookie Feud, but there's some other great moments here as well.

Here's the video of this auction if you want to watch it first (not visible on mobile devices; just look on YouTube).

• Beer and Peanuts: Randy and Sugar have hated each other since the moment they met, and they bid back and forth for the beer, which Randy finally wins with $180. Sugar then says "I don't like beer that much...I just wanted to up the ante for him."
• Covered Item (Note): Kenny spends $340 for a note that allows him to send Bob to Exile Island and take all his money.
• Covered Item (Chocolate and Peanut Butter): Sugar eggs on Kenny to outbid Randy for the item, and once he gives up, ensures that Randy can't have it by paying $340 herself.
• Hot Bath and New Clothes: Susie pays $340 for the bath and then inexplicably, gets out and dries off pretty fast. Randy says he'll bid $100 for the chance to bathe Susie...and of course, she turns it down. Sugar tells Kenny, "You should have gone for that...I would have cuddled with you if you had new clothes on," to which Kenny responds, "Would you cuddle with a rich man?"
• Immunity Challenge Advantage: Corinne pays all $500 for the advantage, and if my memory serves me, does not end up winning the challenge but still doesn't go home...more on that later.
• Covered Item (Chocolate Chip Cookies): Randy offers the first $20 and buys chocolate chip cookies for the Tribe. He offers Sugar a cookie but she declines, telling him to give hers to Matty. Randy responds that it's not hers to give away. At the very end, he offers her his own cookie, which she takes and gives to Matty just to thwart him.

Biggest Winner: Randy (beer, peanuts, cookies (although he doesn't get one), and spaghetti)

Biggest Loser: Bob (sent to Exile)

Impact: The Cookie Feud succeeded in fueling the flames of hatred between Sugar and Randy, and when Bob won immunity later in the episode (despite Corinne's advantage), Randy acts like even more of a jerk than he is already (if that's possible) in an attempt to get everyone to vote for him instead of Corinne. This is because Bob gave him a hidden immunity idol that he planned on playing that night a Tribal.

But Sugar had the upper hand on Randy once again; she convinced Bob to give Randy his fake immunity idol, and Randy is voted out that night.

#2: Survivor: Micronesia

We're at Final 8 as the Dabu Tribe prepares for its auction. I think the most memorable moment here has to be the chocolate cake...it's finger-licking good. Although my personal favorite might be the fruit bat soup.

Here's this auction's video.

• Covered Item (Hot Dog and French Fries): Cirie buys this for $120 but forgets to give Jeff $20 (or maybe it was on purpose; who knows?). She then wins a hot dog, french fries, and "all the fixins'"
• Covered Item (Nachos): Erik purchases a covered item for $80, but when Jeff offers him a switch to another covered item, he takes it. Which is lucky, because he trades a jar of octopus for a huge tray of nachos.
• Covered Item (Fruit Bat Soup): For $240, Natalie buys fruit bat soup and refuses to touch it, but James will eat it! In front of an incredulous Probst, he starts peeling the bats, because "you gotta take the skin off first."
• Covered Item (Note): Natalie buys a note in a bottle for $240. Like Kenny, it allows her to send someone to Exile and take all of their money. She smartly asks Jeff whether the idol has been replanted, and he says yes, so she uses that as an excuse to send Jason (who nobody really wants at the auction anyway). With a completely straight face, Jeff says, "Maybe this time you'll get a real [idol]."
• Covered Item (Chocolate Cake): Natalie is on a roll here and spends $380 for an enormous chocolate cake which she must share with three others for 60 seconds. Quickly picking Alexis, Parvati, and Cirie, she warns them, "Ok, seriously. Don't hog the cake. I'm a little aggro right now." As they start devouring it, Erik offers them each $20 to lick their fingers, and Cirie takes $40 and actually allows him to do it! James comments, "Something's wrong with that boy...he really has problems, poor thing."

Biggest Winner: Erik (nachos and he gets to lick Cirie's fingers)

Biggest Loser: Jason (sent to Exile)

Impact: Jason does end up finding the hidden immunity idol at Exile Island that day, which only adds further hilarity to the fact that he's blindsided at the end of the episode in the exact same way as Ozzy. Thank you, Survivor Auction, for helping to add to the legacy of the Black Widow Brigade.

#1: Survivor: Caramoan

Enil Edam

The best Survivor Auction is the most recent one (besides Cagayan, of course). At Final 9, the Enil Edam Tribe goes to its auction. This auction is unique in that it helps in telling a mini-story: Brenda is emotional and having a difficult time in the game right now. So keep that in mind as we move along.

Here's the Caramoan auction.

• Beer and Peanuts: Jeff says "First $20 gets beer and peanuts," and before he can stop himself, Malcolm buys it. This is pretty great when juxtaposed with the confessional he gave just a moment earlier, where he planned on buying nothing but an advantage in the game. Malcolm worries that he might have shot himself in the foot, but hey; he gets 2 more beers and pretzels as well.
• Covered Item (Pizza): Reynold spends $180 for a covered item, and then Jeff offers him two other covered items as trades. Cochran counsels him to switch, saying it's the "Monty Hall Problem...you're always supposed to switch." This isn't exactly true, because Jeff didn't reveal one of the other two items. Reynold's logic is, "I don't trust you, Cochran." He sticks with his first item and gets a slice of pizza, avoiding a rotten coconut and a full pizza.
• Whole Pizza: Immediately afterwards, Sherri declares "$500 for the full pizza!" I definitely like the audacity that she has; when players come up with their own bids (like Erik wanting to lick fingers), it's more fun. And Jeff, surprised, lets her have it.
• Information in the Game: Malcolm offers up $480, and shockingly, nobody outbids him. Now, it's possible that people have already bid on other items we didn't get to see, but this is still a huge break for him...although it ends up not being as great as he thinks...it's the clue to a HII, which he gets to read for 60 seconds.
• Covered Item (Spaghetti): Brenda doesn't want to risk buying something bad, so she stops bidding and Andrea takes it for $280. But it's the classic dilemma; take the spaghetti or give it up for rice and beans for your tribe. Andrea smartly makes the sacrifice.
• Immunity Challenge Advantage: Again, Brenda stops bidding, and Cochran takes the advantage for $340. This is what Malcolm really needed.
• Covered Item (Pig Brain): Finally, Brenda goes all in with $300...and gets a pig brain. You have to feel bad for Brenda, who starts scooping up brain with a spoon before remembering that she doesn't eat pork. "It's good for you, right?" she asks Jeff, who responds with, "I have no idea."
• Letters From Home: $20 for anyone who wants one...except Malcolm, Sherri, and Dawn (who bought roasted chicken) have already spent all of their money.
• Covered Item (Peanut Butter): Eddie buys peanut butter for $200 for the entire tribe to enjoy for 60 seconds. Everyone covers themselves with peanut butter, and Cochran licks it from Sherri's hand. Jeff asks him, "How often does that happen?" and Cochran responds, "More often than you think."

Biggest Winner: Malcolm (beer, peanuts, pretzels, and he still gets an advantage)

Biggest Loser: Brenda (pig brain)

Impact: Even though Brenda's had a rough time, she still ends up with a letter from home and some peanut butter. Reading her letter, she realizes that there are more important things than food, and her mini-story is resolved.

Cagayan didn't live up to some
of these great auctions.

Cochran uses his advantage to win the immunity challenge, but Malcolm (due to Andrea's dogging) cannot locate the idol, and is voted out. This is the reason that Tasha withheld her money in the Cagayan auction...she thought that there would be two different advanatages.

I think that does it for our trip down Survivor Memory Lane; hopefully you enjoyed it. It's too bad that Cagayan didn't live up to some of these great auctions; I think the key is to offer things besides food, like the bath or letters, and vary up the advantage rules (which they did). 

Tonight there'll be an Amazing Race recap, so stay tuned!

And finally, YouTube has a compilation of many of the Survivor auctions, so you can check that out below.

Analyzing the Merge of Survivor: Cagayan

Unfortunately, there will be no audio recap of the episode this week. We tried to make it work, but Ethan and I were just too busy. You can definitely expect a recap for next week's episode.

I want to take some time to analyze
the moves that were made.

But before too much time has passed, I want to take some time to analyze the moves that were made and being talked about on this week's episode in lieu of the traditional in-depth article.

I already spoke about my feelings on this great episode on my Wednesday night recap, so for the most part I'm going to focus on the strategic moves being made. Let's count how many errors each person made and at the end we'll see who played the worst this episodes. We should also keep track of the people making some smart plays.

Kass's conversation with Sarah: who's to blame?

Obviously, both Kass and Sarah made a lot of wrong moves this week, but I'm going to say that Kass actually made more mistakes, even though Sarah was on the receiving end of the snuffer.

Kass and Sarah are talking out on the beach before the tribes merge, and are discussing the social dynamics that will occur after Solana arrives and how new-Aparri needs to stick together. And Kass, with her predictable brutal honesty, says something along the lines of "You haven't proved yourself, so I don't trust you." 

Sarah waffles between the two alliances.

Maybe you don't trust her, Kass. Maybe you place more faith in Morgan and Jeremiah, who had no qualms about voting out Alexis the night before. But you really don't want to say that to Sarah's face! If you're worried that someone in your alliance is going to flip, telling them that you don't trust them just makes them more likely to flip!

For her part, though, Sarah makes a lot of blunders as well. She waffles between the two alliances as only the great fallen swing votes of history (Big Tom, Christy Smith) can. Apart from insisting that Tony and LJ are the only two people who absolutely cannot have idols (I really thought she had decided to go with Tony and was lying at this point, it was so laughable), she completely refuses to vote for anyone but the two of them.

After realizing that Kass doesn't fully trust her, Sarah should be taking all the steps possible to make sure she's in good with the Brains...refusing to vote for some of her old tribemates is definitely not helping. It sent Kass several red flags, and coupled with the apparent sub-alliance Sarah was developing with Spencer and Jeremiah, put Chaos Kass over the edge.

Moves Made:

Kass

• Too honest with Sarah (-1)
• Too paranoid about her flipping (-1)

Sarah

• Waffles with Tony/Kass (-1)
• Refuses to vote for Trish or Jefra (-1)

Tasha intervenes between the sibling rivalry

Tasha smartly attempts to placate Sarah.

The second conversation with Kass and Sarah occurs alongside Tasha, who's mediating their dispute. Tasha smartly attempts to placate Sarah and makes her feel included and powerful in the Aparri alliance. This certainly soothes Sarah, but it ruffles (rustles!) Kass' feathers.

Kass starts to act like a little kid who's upset with her mom (Tasha) supporting her sister (Sarah) over herself. She really needed to realize that Tasha was just doing this to make the swing vote feel wanted, but she felt insecure and that was also a contributing factor in her flip.

Moves Made

Kass

• Feels insecure about her position and worries Tasha is against her (-1)

Tasha

• Doesn't talk to Kass afterwards and reassure her (-1)
• Reassures Sarah that she's in control (+1)

Immunity Challenge

Woo wears shoes.

Pretty self-explanatory, right? The other players were given the option to wear shoes or go barefoot...and shoes was obviously the right way to go.

Moves Made

Woo

• Wears shoes (+1)

Before the vote

After several more conversations with all interested parties, Sarah eventually decides to stick with her Aparri alliance. A lot of people probably thought this was a good decision, but I really think that she should have gone with Tony because there's no way Sarah would ever be part of the Final Three of that alliance. This is also the point where Sarah mentions the impossibility of Tony or LJ possessing an idol. 

Tony tries to convince her otherwise, but Sarah's not listening to all the wise words he's saying to her. So he turns things over to Trish, who approaches Kass and says she'll do whatever Kass wants...which works!

Moves Made

Tony

• Poor lobbying for the swing vote (-1)

Sarah

• Sticks with the Brains (-1)

Trish

• Realizes she needs to talk to Kass and has established a good relationship with her (+1)
• Gives all the power to Kass and convinces her to flip (+1)

At Tribal Council

Here's where the fireworks really begin. After LJ mentions he's not sure if there are actually idols in the game (wisely lying through his teeth), Tony proclaims. "There's idols. Cause I got one." Spencer then goads him to pull it out and show everyone, which really was the right move.

Tony was the primary target, and by waving the idol in Aparri's faces, he throws their whole plan off balance. If they hadn't had a backup, they might have had a hard time choosing a new target at Tribal Council. I also think it was definitely smart to play the idol on LJ instead of himself; it effectively ensured that both Tony and LJ were safe.

What wasn't such a hot idea was for LJ to then play the idol on Tony. LJ, who's proven himself a smart player in the past, was probably caught up in the heat of the moment. He should have realized that Tony threatening to play the idol already guaranteed his safety.

So Solana wasted two idols, and Aparri would have been fine if Kass hadn't flipped! She made an irrevocable, terrible move, switching out a secure final three alliance inside the majority alliance for number 6 of a new alliance...all because she didn't like Sarah. Kass, what are you thinking?!? But thank you for making things interesting.

Moves Made

Tony

• Threatens the use of his idol (+1)
• Plays it on LJ (+1)

LJ

• Plays his idol on Tony (-1)

Kass

• Flips on her alliance (-1)

So when we add everything up here, it looks like Tony failed to convince Sarah to vote with them but made up for it with some smart idol trickery (+1 overall), Tasha worked hard to keep Sarah but failed to keep Chaos Kass (0 overall), LJ made a really bad decision that ended up working out alright but wasted an idol (-1), Woo made a good call in the immunity challenge (+1), Trish saved the day for Solana (+2), and Kass and Sarah were, of course, the big losers of the episode.

I really have no way to predict the course
of this season, which speaks to how good it is.

Sarah played terribly by not swearing on her badge (which she was unwilling to do, and Tony exploited) and making Tony think she was with him (-3 overall), but Kass was the one making the most dumb decisions (-4) and dooming her game. Although I guess after looking it over, they both performed pretty poorly.

So what's next? It looks like someone will be finding the OPHII, which maybe will save us from a pagoning will be terrible. Other than that, I think Tony's alliance is in a relatively good position moving forward, but Kass could just as easily swing back to the Brains (they'll have to accept her; they need the vote!) and change the game around again.

I really have no way to predict the course of this season, which speaks to how good it is. All I can say is that even though his alliance is crumbling, Spencer's edit is still solid and I see him as the potential winner (unfortunately).

Tomorrow I'll have a BBCAN recap up, so stay tuned!

Previewing the Survivor: Cagayan Merge

The merge is rapidly approaching.

With the merge rapidly approaching, Ethan and I both wrote about what we think might happen this upcoming week. Ethan's going to talk about the three players he thinks will be making moves and controlling the game after the merge, and I'm going to take a look at the long-standing belief that the strong men are usually targeted right after the merge. (Image credit CBS)

Top Three Power Players

These are the three players in the position to make the biggest moves and the biggest waves in the upcoming merge. Let's take a look at the paths they've each taken to make it to the merge, and what they're going to need to do in order to win the game.

Spencer: Spencer began the game with a strategy of staying under the radar. He allied himself with Garrett, who had a large personality and overshadowed Spencer. This isn't a bad idea at the beginning of the game, but unfortunately for Spencer, Garrett was quickly voted out. This left Spencer all alone against a group of three girls who had a relatively close alliance. The one weakness in it was J'Tia, who was weak in challenges and a little wild. Fortunately enough, Spencer was able to convince Kass and Tasha that he would stay loyal and that he was a lot more help to them than J'Tia would be.

Spencer will definitely have
some difficulty riding
this out to the end.

Soon after this came the swap, and Spencer had two choices. He could either stick with his Brains tribe alliance or take this moment to jump ship and start fresh with the Beauty girls and maybe Sarah. He made the correct decision in this case and stayed with the Brains, who had control of the tribe. Even though Beauty had an equal number of people, they were not cohesive. This puts Spencer in a great position to work with the Brains and control the votes. 

After the merge, though, Spencer won't have such a good spot. A tight triple alliance like the Brains gives the message that these three want to go to the end together, and anyone who works with them will get voted off when they lose their use. Spencer has three good choices post-merge, as I see it. 

He can A) jump ship and join a different alliance, which would probably be Sarah and any Beauties he can scavenge, B) stay with the Brain's alliance, but become more distant with Kass and Tasha so that their partnership is less obvious and they become less of a threat, or C) pretend to continue working with the Brains, but sell them out to the Solana group.

Spencer may have it good now, but he will definitely have some difficulty riding this out to the end. In terms of his edit, Spencer definitely has the best out of the Brains. He will either make it to the end and lose, win the game, or at least make a big move.

Cliff went home and Sarah is none the wiser.

Tony: Tony began the game as a big player with a big personality who, although likable, would stop at nothing to win the game. Tony is placed on the Brawn tribe and is a cop, but he doesn't want that to be known. He even lies to Sarah and tells her he works in construction. Tony made a big deal out of this and believed he would be targeted if others knew he was a police officer. This can't be true, of course, because Sarah didn't hide the fact that she's a cop, and no one went after her. 

Later on, Tony tells Sarah that he is a cop, and surprisingly enough, even though he lied to her, she trusts him more for it. Tony also lies to Sarah about being in a "Blue Bloods Cops 'R Us" alliance and lies to her again, saying that Cliff is trying to get her out. In the end, though, his lying pays off; Cliff went home and Sarah is none the wiser. The strategy that Tony is implementing is a high risk one. One slip and Sarah will leave him, but if he can pull it off, he gets what he wishes without getting blood on his hands. 

Tony becomes very comfortable in his position on Brawn, and continues feeling safe and comfortable after the swap, which is a mistake. The only person on Brawn truly under his thumb is Sarah, and she's now on the other tribe. Tony also now has some more subtle players on his tribe such as LJ, who doesn't show his true feelings. Tony's constant lying is made clear when he brags about tricking the other tribe with the fake clue. 

Tony felt too secure in his current spot.

This was one of the worst moves he could have made, because Tony is seen as a huge social and strategic threat. He then makes another big mistake, yelling "Top 5 at a challenge. This is like telling everyone "I already have my alliance and I will take you down," which not only isolates himself but also unites the 6 on the other tribe against his 5. Tony played a really good early game--albeit a little ambitious--and it panned out, but he felt too secure in his current spot, and as we all know, if you get too comfortable, you will fail. 


Tony may not have many moves left after his lying and Final Five comment. His post-merge play is probably not going to last long and his only chance of surviving is to either win all the challenges (unlikely) or somehow redeem himself and attempt to dive under the radar. He has one other option, which is to try and throw someone else from his tribe under the bus as an alternate target, although there aren't any great candidates for that that are bigger threats than him. Tony had a good run pre-swap, but I am afraid his time is nearing an end. His edit doesn't give much hope either. His constant strategizing and numerous confessionals have dwindled to a normal amount, which could signal his impending demise.

Sarah has good social abilities.

Sarah: Sarah is a very interesting player who is both trusting and insightful. Her first moves are made with Tony, who lies to her about being a cop. She can see past the lie, but ends up letting it slide as she is unsure. Later on, Tony reveals the truth and she thinks she has made an alliance with him. Sarah is, of course, mistaken, as Tony is just playing her. He then manipulates her into thinking Cliff and Lindsey are after her, and Sarah reacts by pulling people together to throw a challenge and vote out Cliff, which shows she has good social abilities.

Sarah starts the game being a puppet for Tony's schemes, but after being separated from him, grows out of that role and becomes more powerful. When swapped to Aparri, she at first thinks she is a swing vote between Brains and Beauty, although Beauty doesn't stick together She slowly meshes with her new tribe and becomes part of the Brains alliance, but doesn't truly become part of her tribe until Tony stupidly cuts the cord with the "Top Five" comment that doesn't include her. 

Sarah starts the game being
a puppet for Tony's schemes.

This entire situation forces Sarah to completely restart with a group of people that have already formed strong bonds. Sarah's merge strategy seems very restrictive at the moment; she can side with the Brains or help the surviving Beauties. However, I believe that many more options will pop up, because Solana does not have a very close alliance; both LJ and Jefra are liable to flip. It's also possible that the Brain alliance will fall apart, which would give Sarah a chance to form new relationships and alliances with people like Kass or Jeremiah, separate from the larger alliance.

Sarah definitely has a chance of winning this game. I'm not sure if she has the best shot, but if things go as I think they might, then she should have a very good one. Her edit is also pretty good and it depicts her as a little bit of an underdog, which is always a good sign.

The Rise and Fall of the Alpha Male

With the merge upon us, it's time to look ahead to the first couple members of the jury. The general impression is that big, strong, athletic guys are targeted right after the merge, but is that really true? And if so, why? Let's take a look. We'll see how many seasons I can get through.

Blood vs. Water

The Brothers Bauskauskas presented
just too much of a threat.

The theory seems to hold true here; Aras and Vytas were the first two voted out after the merge. If you'll recall, Tyson started putting together his coalition to target Aras when he, Aras, and Gervase swapped over to Tadhana, because Aras was a threat. Vytas was just unlucky enough to be Aras's brother and along for the ride as part of the alliance.

And why was Aras targeted? Because he was a likable, athletic guy who had won before and could do it again. Vytas was just as likable if not more, and twice as cunning (sorry Aras). Alone, the Brothers Bauskauskas might have had a chance, but together, they presented just too much of of a threat.

Reynold was a challenge beast.

Caramoan
Here we have a slightly different story. Our sassy friend Corinne Kaplan was the first one out after the merge, and sadly didn't make the jury. She was followed by Michael Snow, and then Phillip Sheppard, so obviously the "alpha male" targets were still around.

However, Corinne and Michael were associated with the Three Amigos, and were targeted by Stealth 'R Us. Cochran and Phillip and Dawn and Andrea felt threatened by Malcolm and his army of bros, as they should have been. As Sherri put it, "who knows what these guys are capable of?" (Or something like that) Malcolm is obviously a huge threat, and Reynold was a challenge beast; they both held idols. Eddie was a loyal vote and was very likable, so it really was the right move for the Favorite Alliance to target them. So while the young guys didn't go home right away on Caramoan, it wasn't for a lack of trying.

Philippines
Definitely an anomaly here. Philippines saw RC and then Jeff Kent go home first. It was more a story of two rival alliances (Penner, Denise, Malcolm, and Carter vs. Tandang) than taking out the bros. And when Lisa and Skupin defected, it was a mini-pagoning of the remaining Tandang members--Artis and Pete--before began thinking of jury threats like Penner, or physical threats like Carter. This time, Malcolm was able to escape the target on his back until the very end.

Jonas was definitely not the alpha type.

One World
Five guys went home in a row on One World, and most of them were relatively young and athletic. Although, I would say that in this instance they were voted out just for being guys than for being "alpha males." After all, Jonas was definitely not the alpha type. It's true, though, that people like Tarzan were kept around longer because they weren't considered threats.

South Pacific
The Savaii pagonging started with the elimination of the three young and athletic guys--Ozzy, Keith, and Jim, so it continued the pattern. Ozzy was just lucky enough to be so athletic that he could survive 6 Redemption Island duels and return to the game. Obviously he's someone you really do want to vote out right away so you have the greatest chance of sending him home.

Redemption Island
This season was basically a predictable pagonging and didn't really follow the pattern, although Matt Elrod was immediately identified as a threat by Rob and voted out again right after the merge.

Nicaragua 
This season definitely did not follow the pattern either, with three young guys making it to the end. Most of the girls were voted out relatively quickly, with Alina being the first to leave. Alliances had a lot more to do with the boot order of this season than it did in Redemption Island or South Pacific, simply because there was a tribe swap that switched things around a bit.

J.T. was a sociable winner.

Heroes vs. Villains
HvV was unique in that most of the athletic men were actually voted off before the merge--people like Tyson and James. Out of the 10 people in Yin Yang, I would say that only J.T. qualified for this title (Colby had lost his luster, although he and Russell and even Rupert held their own in challenges), and he was voted off first. This was in part due to his threatening challenge prowess, but J.T. was also a sociable winner. Although I think that Parvati and Russell just wanted to vote out the guy that they duped right after they tricked him. With an All Stars season, there are other factors in play, so it's hard to count HvV in the rankings.

Samoa
Poor, doomed Galu. Erik was the first one gone from Galu, right at the merge, but after that it was a simple pagonging, with each castaway being voted out for different reasons.

Tocantins
Now we pick up the pattern once again. Of course, J.T. and Stephen were the final two, but I would say that Coach was more the alpha male in this case. And Joe (although he was medivaced), Brendan, and Tyson were the first ones out at the merge. Brendan was "the Dragon" and considered a big threat to Coach, and Tyson's own alliance blindsided him because he was such a physical threat.

Gabon
Charlie was the first one out, but that was really the result of the pagonging by the Kenny/Susie/Crystal/Matty/Sugar alliance. What's more important is the blindside of Marcus the week before the merge. Marcus was considered a huge threat and was voted out in anticipation of a merge, so that the others wouldn't have to face him in challenges and he couldn't lead his alliance.

Micronesia

The blindsides of Ozzy and Jason were
pivotal, exciting moments of the season.

Let's end with the biggest downfall of the young guys that we've ever seen on Survivor. After Eliza, it was Ozzy, Jason, and James (although admittedly, James was medivaced). Still, the blindsides of Ozzy and Jason were pivotal, exciting moments of the season. The only man to escape being voted out right away was Erik, and we know very well how his story ended.

So why are these guys targeted? I think it's actually pretty simple. Castaways don't want to compete with the Ozzys and the Malcolms and the Arases of the world. They're likable (well not Ozzy) and often extremely good in challenges, and like the Three Amigos or the Bauskauskas Brothers, tend to band together. I really don't think there's much more to it than that...and it's a good tactic. When there's Redemption Island in play, Ozzy keeps coming back. When you let Malcolm slip to the end, he wins (but Denise cut him short). And if you're not careful (and the guy doesn't pull an Erik Reichenbach), he can win a bunch of immunities and win the game (J.T. and Fabio).

I think Woo is in trouble.

What does this mean for our Cagayan contestants? Well, for starters, I think Woo is in trouble. He's in what I think is the minority alliance (because I don't think Sarah will flip and Jeremiah will probably stay loyal as well) and sticks out like a sore thumb compared to Jefra or Trish. LJ is also a threat. He's not a super young guy, but he does fit the stereotype of the alpha male, and has proven himself a force to be reckoned with in challenges. Tony is an alpha male as well, and will probably see his torch snuffed in the next couple weeks. Even Jeremiah, when the Brains have no further use for him, will see himself blindsided.

Morgan has been all but
invisible for the past
couple of weeks.

The smarter, smaller players will be the ones making it to the end on this season. Not smaller in stature (necessarily), but smaller as in under the radar. Morgan has been all but invisible for the past couple of weeks, but not in the bad Purple Kelly or Vanilla Julia kind of way. She's still getting confessionals (except for last week) and her edit usually plays a central role in a recap, so I think she's looking to make it far in this post-merge environment. The Brains are going to be a big target soon enough--and Spencer in particular--but for now they should be safe, and even when they are exposed, who's looking at Kass? Similarly, Jefra and Sarah should be able to slip through the cracks easily for the next couple of weeks.

Of course, these are just predictions, and I'm sure at least one of Jeremiah, Woo, Tony, LJ, or Spencer will make it to the endgame (Final 7 at least), but I think in general, the alpha males (and even beta males, in Woo's case) are in trouble. If history repeats itself, an athletic guy will be going home this week, and you can bet on seeing Woo's name in the bottom of my power rankings this week. Woo, I wish you luck.

Tomorrow (or actually today) we've got an Amazing Race recap coming your way (not sure if it'll be text or audio yet), and then a Sunday episode BBCAN recap on Monday, so stay tuned!

Older Women Stereotypes on Survivor

This week we're talking about the role
of the older woman on Survivor.

I haven't had a chance to watch the eviction show of Big Brother this week, so I'm writing the feature article today and I'll get the BBCAN weekly recap to you tomorrow. This week we're talking about the role of the "older" (really not that old) woman on Survivor, with a focus on the edits of the most recent seasons. (Image credit CBS and Survivor Wikia)

The Role of the Older Woman on Survivor

With Trish making waves the past week on the new Solana tribe, it's a good time to check out the edit and reflect on the way that older women have been portrayed on recent seasons of Survivor. This category of women (ranging in age from 42 to 53) has been extremely successful as of late, boasting one winner and four finalists. Survivor portrays these women on the show in one three different categories.

Category 1: The Emotional Mom

On the past few seasons of Survivor, we've seen a lot of tears and a lot of emotion. Dawn cried her way through two seasons, yet was able to reach the final tribal council after playing a decent game (at least in my opinion; not so much in the minds of the jurors).

The True Grit Caramoan Dawn
vacillated between sad and emotional
one minute and ruthless the next.

On South Pacific, Dawn really had no game-smarts and was mainly remembered for her kindness and her crying, but on Caramoan, she came to play. Many people criticized and insulted Dawn for her cutthroat gameplay, especially when she voted out Brenda, but Dawn had no apologies (even though Jeff tried to force them out of her at the reunion show). I think viewers' biggest problem with the True Grit Caramoan Dawn was that she vacillated between sad and emotional one minute and ruthless the next.

Lisa was a great
character and proved
that this archetype
could last a long time.

I don't think we as viewers should have any problems with that sort of gameplay, although whether it worked for Dawn as a strategy as Survivor is not so clear. From what we've heard from the jurors, they didn't respect Dawn played the game and felt especially betrayed when she voted them out because they had had to spend time comforting and consoling her beforehand. Even so, I thought Dawn played a good game the second time around and was able to provide Stealth 'R Us with key info.

Lisa is another great example of the "emotional mom" type player. We tended to see a lot of Lisa's crying on Survivor: Philippines, and in the early stages of the game she felt ostracized and alone. Fortunately, Lisa survived to the endgame, where she became an interesting player in her interactions with Abi and her eventual flip to the alliance of Denise et. all. While not as good of a player in terms of strategy as Dawn, Lisa was still a great character and proved that this archetype could last a long time.

Category 2: The Naive Schemer

Dawn and Lisa may have cried a lot, but at least they had a firm understanding of the game. This category of "older woman" is the worst at Survivor, and it encompasses players like Sherri, who started off strong in Caramoan but quickly petered out come the merge.

Sherri was set up in a great position initially on the Fans tribe, picking her "Phillip" in Shamar and trying to emulate the games of Boston Rob and Kim. With a solid alliance of 6 against the "Cool Kids" Alliance, it seemed that nothing could go wrong. But due to a lack of challenge strength, infighting, and a medivac, the Gota tribe was soon whittled down to 6, which quickly became 4 after the swap.

With her alliance destroyed, Sherri had no power left in the game and her only way to survive was to ride the coattails of Stealth 'R Us. She had a chance to flip and join the Three Amigos at final 9, but wisely chose not to; as bad a chance she had against Cochran, Andrea, Dawn, and the others, she would have been voted out even quicker by the Amigos.

Sherri gave one of the worst Final
Tribal performances in Survivor history.

So how is Sherri naive, you ask? Well, she lacked the endgame strategy that could have put her in the Final Tribal Council next to someone she could have beaten (there were few choices, to be fair). From Final 9 onward, Sherri sat back and watched the Favorites' wheeling and dealing without lifting a finger, which made her the perfect goat to take to the end. And her performance in the finale clinched the deal. Stating how she was "so nervous," and failing to realize how other players perceived her, Sherri gave one of the worst Final Tribal performances in Survivor history.

Laura lasted longer
than I expected.

But Sherri isn't the only would-be schemer of the last few seasons: our good friend Laura Boneham fits into this category nicely as well. Laura and Rupert had no chance in Blood vs. Water, but they simply could not look at themselves from someone else's perspective, and thought that they had a great chance to win. Laura was voted out right away by the Tadhana tribe, but was saved by Rupert and given a second chance, which she soon squandered.

I'll give her credit; Laura lasted longer than I expected, making it to the swap before she was voted out. What did it was not telling Vytas he was going home, however. The other castaways on the new Galang tribe confirmed that Laura was going to be blindsided regardless, due to her inability to connect with others and general awkwardness around camp.

Category 3: The Tough Survivor

This portrayal has been the most positive for older women over the past three seasons. Like Dawn, the two people I'm thinking of played strong and at times, ruthless games, but they didn't break down every episode and cause people to feel sorry for them. In other words, they were there to play.

Denise, who I consider to be one of the best Survivor winners, is a shoe-in for this category. Denise roughed it out through 39 days, 15 tribal councils (including the Final Tribal), and 1 centipede bite. She survived the collapse of one tribe, the integration into another, and a crazy post-merge against a Tandang alliance to clench the title of Sole Survivor and walk away one of the best to play.

Tina was someone we were
supposed to root for.

Denise was never edited as the antagonist or as someone to root against, and was simply shown making shrewd moves and winning challenges when needed. She was extremely self-aware and ready to play the game, just like Tina.

Tina didn't win Blood vs. Water, but she was the first female winner ever, and delivered a strong finish to her 3rd season, in which many thought that she was losing her touch. After finishing in fourth place, however, I think it's safe to say that Tina put these doubts to rest. A "tough survivor" is, in general, better at the challenges, and Tina is a great example of this, winning her way back from Redemption Island and surviving her first tribal council upon her return. Just like Denise, Tina was edited favorably, for the most part, and was someone we were supposed to root for.

Of course, these categories aren't all-inclusive, even if the show would sometimes like us to believe that they are. An "emotional mom" player can be good at the challenges (Dawn was), and so can the "naive schemer" (Laura B). I didn't include Laura Morett in here, because I couldn't decide if she fit into the second or third category; she's a little of both. And Monica is a tough survivor who's playing the game "for Monica," but also is naive and emotional...so where do we put her?

Is Trish just a
wannabe mastermind
like Sherri or a tough
cookie like Denise?

So what of our older women on Survivor: Cagayan? Where does Trish fit in, or Kass? It's too early to know for sure, but we can make some predictions. Trish really impressed me in the last episode. I worried that at first she'd be emotional, or someone who faded into the background, but she really came to play. It remains to be seen whether Trish is just a wannabe mastermind like Sherri or a tough cookie like Denise.

Kass is even harder to read. Pre-game, I thought she was a genius, and then in her first few episodes, she failed to live up to my expectation. She's definitely not emotional, but she's very honest--too honest. On the plus side, though, Kass has that same self-awareness as Denise, and if she plays a strong and aggressive post-merge game, she can end up a winner.

So in the next episode, when you're listening to a confessional from Kass or watching the machinations of Trish, try not to think of them as one-dimensional characters, but rather as a combination of the three categories above. All of these players have qualities from each group, but which do you think Kass and Trish best fit into? Leave a comment below with your thoughts on my categorizing; I'd love to hear it! And check back tomorrow for a Big Brother Canada update.

Black Widows 3.0 on Survivor: Cagayan?

For today's Survivor feature article, Ethan's and my topics aligned, so I decided to combine them together. We're both going to talk a little bit about the role that all-women and all-men alliances play on Survivor, and in Cagayan in particular. Tomorrow, we'll have a recap of The Amazing Race Episode 3 for you, so stay tuned! (Image credit to CBS)

We're both going to talk a little bit
about the role that all-women and
all-men alliances play on Survivor.

Ethan:

Single-Gender Alliances

Vytas was the next pick
to be voted off.

This is a common phenomenon in Survivor; the girls or the guys all form together to vote off the other gender. Recent examples of single-gender alliances include Vytas on the all girls tribe of Blood vs. Water; he was the next pick to be voted off. He happened to be spared in that specific case because Laura B. took pity on him and told him that he would be voted off, thus dooming herself. Another example of the single-gender alliance took place in Caramoan when Reynold, Malcolm and Eddie created the Three Amigos.

Now in BBB, on the Brains tribe, Kass, J'Tia and Tasha have formed an alliance and seem intent on bringing destruction to the other guys on the team. They voted off David and Garrett, and now have threatened to vote off Spencer if they lose another challenge. Fortunately for Spencer, Luzon made a surprise comeback at the puzzle and beat the Beauty tribe, sparing him.

This all-girl alliance is bad news for 
Spencer, because it is the 
hardest type of alliance to break.

This all-girl alliance is bad news for Spencer, because it is the hardest type of alliance to break. All women alliances are focused on the similarities of the people within and the differences of the people outside the alliance. If their are no changes to Luzon's current dynamic, and the Brains lose the next challenge, Spencer will be forced to sway not one, but two of the girls to his side to win the vote. 

This alliance is solid for now, but I believe that it will break apart if there are any additions or losses to Luzon, like in a tribe swap/dissolve. Kass and Tasha both are only with J'Tia to have a majority and will most likely leave her as soon as she loses her worth. Although this specific alliance will most likely fall apart, I believe Kass and Tasha may stick together and if they are still together when one tribe dissolves, they might expand their alliance to any new girls added to the tribe.

Marcus:

Will We See The Black Widow Alliance 3.0?

We've seen many breeds and varieties of alliances on Survivor, from those formed through race (Cook Islands, Fiji), religion (South Pacific), or circumstance (Exile Alliance from Tocantins). Most commonly, a random group of strangers bonds on one tribe and sticks together till the end.

There is one type of alliance, though, that has persevered better than all the others: alliances of the same sex.

Cliques of "hot girls" like Jenna,
Heidi, and Shawna.

On the Amazon, Vanuatu, and One World, we've seen tribes divided into men and women, often with explosive results. Cliques of "hot girls" like Jenna, Heidi, and Shawna, "strong guys" Matt Quinlan, Michael, and Jay, and everything in between has formed on these seasons.

One trend seems clear, though: men have a harder time sticking together than women do. I know that this doesn't fit the common stereotype, and it doesn't fit what I'm going to say about this season, but it does seem to be true. On the Amazon, Jenna, Heidi, and Shawna were extremely close, whereas Rob and Alex plotted the other men's demise. In Vanuatu, Chris Daugherty was the only man left late in the game, up against an alliance of women. And in One World, Kim and her minions crushed all the men of Manono.

But we've also seen these all-male and all-female alliances even on seasons that aren't "boys vs. girls." Brad Culpepper's Five Guys alliance in Blood vs. Water is a recent example of such, even though it imploded relatively soon, proving my earlier point. This "Brigade-type" alliance (named for really the only all-guys alliance that has ever worked, and that was in Big Brother) never succeeds. It is true that there can be strong partnerships of men on Survivor (Richard and Rudy, Rob and Matt, Stephen and JT, Lex and Tom) but a larger alliance always crumbles.

This cutthroat, backstabbing group of
women controlled Micronesia from
the merge to the end.

On the other side of the coin, however, is the women's alliance, which we've seen achieve success much more than the men. I've talked about Kim's Black Widows already, but there is a much better known example of the all-female group: the original Black Widows. This cutthroat, backstabbing group of women controlled Micronesia from the merge to the end, and the most ruthless of them won the game. Their names are rather well-known, but I'll say them again.



Parvati. Amanda. Cirie. Natalie. Alexis. People often forget about Alexis, but she was just as cunning as the rest of them; she just had to be cut early after Erik won immunity. Oh, poor Erik. But we all know about that; no need to rehash what was possibly the greatest move in Survivor history.

People often forget about 
Alexis, but she was just 
as cunning as the rest of them.

Both groups of Black Widows dominated the game, and it was clear from early on that a member of these groups would win. Parvati and Kim are two of the best winners of Survivor to date, and their strategies were perfect for their seasons.

But I'm here to answer the question of whether we will see a third Black Widow alliance, on Survivor: Cagayan. All the signs are there: this is the first season that the first three boots have been male, and we have several strong women like Sarah and Tasha.

But the short answer is no. No, sadly, we will not see a return of the Black Widows this season. Why, you ask?

Sadly, we will not see a return of the 
Black Widows this season. Sorry, Jerri.

Even though we have plenty of interesting women this season, and the first three to leave have been guys, I don't think that the remaining women have what it takes to take down the men. People like LJ, Spencer, and Tony are here to play, and I don't think we have enough girls that are similarly in the game. Sarah, of course, is playing hard, but she's already been duped by Tony and doesn't seem to be very close to Lindsey or Trish on her tribe.

I would say that the most manipulative, likely Black Widow candidates would be Sarah, Tasha, Kass, and maybe Morgan, but the likelihood of all four making the merge is small, and the chances of four opinionated women from different tribes joining together even smaller. The other girls are just sitting in the background. Alexis and Jefra are in LJ's back pocket, J'Tia is going crazy from rice-withdrawal, Lindsey is solidly with Cliff and Woo, and Trish has so far done nothing on the Brawn tribe.

Let's break the trend of 
male winners and see 
Sarah form an unbreakable
Black Widow Alliance 3.0.

We could certainly see smaller twosomes, like Tasha and Kass/J'Tia or Alexis and Jefra making it far while watching each other's backs, but I don't think there are enough conniving women that can match wits with people who are clearly here to play, like LJ and Tony. A woman can definitely still win this season over other men; Sophie beat Coach and Albert, Natalie beat Mick and Russell, and Denise triumphed over Mike Skupin, along with many other examples. I just don't think we're going to see the final five made up of Alexis, J'Tia, Jefra, Kass, and Trish, who somehow backstabbed their way to the end.

I could certainly be proved wrong. Sarah is intent on targeting "him" next week (either Cliff or Tony) and we still have at least 3 Tribal Councils before the merge. Maybe we'll see another two or three men voted out, through different circumstances, before the merge, which would make a final 5 of women numerically probable. I doubt it...but it's definitely possible.

I'm ready to see the women get together and make to the end again; it's been a while. Let's break the trend of male winners and see Sarah form an unbreakable Black Widow Alliance 3.0. Cagayan, please surprise me. I dare you.

Thinking Ahead Will Doom Your Tribe

It's the weekend, so it's time for some Survivor feature articles. Today's article was written by myself, Marcus. Tomorrow there will likely be an additional article written by Ethan. Enjoy, and make sure to stay tuned! TAR Episode 2 tomorrow night! Also, all image credit goes to CBS.

Thinking Ahead Will Doom Your Tribe...

While David was dreaming about his
endgame strategy, he was blindsided
and sent home first.

...which is a symptom we've seen all too often over the last couple of seasons. And what I mean by "thinking ahead" is thinking about what David referred to as the "second two-thirds" of the game. I'm not knocking strategic planning, but keep it to just that—planning. There's a long way to go in the game before you reach the merge, and while David was dreaming about his endgame strategy, he was blindsided and sent home first.

So how does this kind of forethought doom your tribe? Well, if you get Ulonged (actually, let's use Matsinged in this instance), you won't even make it to the merge, let alone have a chance to strategize. Time and time again, we see physically strong players who are perceived as threats voted out quickly by the "strategic-thinking" castaways. We saw it last night with Garrett, and to a lesser extend, David. These two became instantly locked in a power struggle at the very beginning of the episode when Leader David was forced to pick a weak player, and chose Garrett.

They would both see their
torches snuffed by the end of the night.

The reasoning David gave in post-game interviews was decent, at least. He thought Trish, Morgan, and Garrett were going to compete in a challenge, and he wanted Garrett to win for Luzon. Apparently, David even explained this to Garrett back at the beach, but it didn't matter. Both of these two power players were enemies now. They would both see their torches snuffed by the end of the night.

The Brains tribe suffered through a disastrous performance in the physical first challenge, and then pulled out a major upset in the second, leading it, only to be overthrown by an even greater comeback from Solana. Both cases would suggest that they could use some extra muscle (and maybe a better puzzle-solver). So why vote out Garrett?! I get that he was annoying, he was brash, he was loud, rude, arrogant, and a control-freak, but when you're on a weaker tribe that's getting dominated in the challenges, you never, ever, ever vote out your powerhouse player.

If Luzon can lose two challenges so handily with Garrett, who knows what new levels of chaos and dysfunctionality can they achieve without him? And being two men down allows Aparri and Solana to sit out their weakest players, giving them even more of an edge. The "Brains" of the Brains tribe committed a fatal error--they sacrificed strength for alliances.

Weaker women like Sherri and Laura,
who were really costing Gota in the
challenges, stayed in power.

Strength vs. Alliances. It's the age-old conundrum affecting Survivor that always seems to be in question at the beginning of the game. We can fault Luzon all we want, but they're just one of many tribes that has been whittled down by making the wrong choice. A great example of this is the Gota Tribe of Survivor: Caramoan—the Fans. Remember them? With Reynold, Hope, Allie, and Eddie on the outs in a tribe of 10, the girls were being picked off. Meanwhile, weaker women like Sherri and Laura, who were really costing Gota in the challenges, stayed in power.

Finally events came to a head when the Fans lost their umpteenth challenge in a row and had to start making some tough decisions. With Shamar evacuated, Reynold and Eddie pleaded with Matt and Michael, the swing votes, to make the right call and take out Laura A. instead of one of the two Amigos. Eventually, even Sherri had to go along with it and the weakest Fan was voted out. Of course, Gota didn't start winning challenges after that, but you get the idea.

Voting out Dr. Cody weakened the tribe
immensely and also set up Brad
as the next player on the chopping block.

Last season is another great (or terrible) instance of players thinking too far ahead and making some poor decisions because of it. Brad Culpepper and his Five Guys alliance (five in nine equals in, remember) quickly booted Marissa, because she opposed Brad, and Rachel, in a vain attempt to target Tyson.

Starting off the season, the Galang women already had the upper hand against the loved ones, and keeping around the weaker girls—Katie and Ciera—was not the right move. And then Brad decided to blindside John to keep himself feeling like he was in charge of his alliance. Yes, John had some idol clues, and yes, he was acting shifty, but it still was not the right move. Voting out Dr. Cody weakened the tribe immensely and also set up Brad as the next player on the chopping block.


And indeed, he was voted out next in another blindside, leaving Tadhana as weak as possible. Somehow, they pulled out a win in a luck-based ring toss challenge, but this doesn't take away from the validity of the argument: you need muscle to win challenges! It's a simple fact; if you can't get your tribe to the merge relatively intact, there will not even be an endgame for you, no matter how much you've prepared for it by taking out the big threats. If Luzon is smart (and clearly they're not) they'll vote off J'Tia next, since she doesn't contribute at camp nor in the challenges, and then Kass if it comes to it.

But it's probably too late for Luzon. It's not too late for you, Survivors of Seasons 29 and 30. Don't make the same mistake(s) as David. Don't worry about the second two-thirds of the game.