Thinking Ahead Will Doom Your Tribe

It's the weekend, so it's time for some Survivor feature articles. Today's article was written by myself, Marcus. Tomorrow there will likely be an additional article written by Ethan. Enjoy, and make sure to stay tuned! TAR Episode 2 tomorrow night! Also, all image credit goes to CBS.

Thinking Ahead Will Doom Your Tribe...

While David was dreaming about his
endgame strategy, he was blindsided
and sent home first.

...which is a symptom we've seen all too often over the last couple of seasons. And what I mean by "thinking ahead" is thinking about what David referred to as the "second two-thirds" of the game. I'm not knocking strategic planning, but keep it to just that—planning. There's a long way to go in the game before you reach the merge, and while David was dreaming about his endgame strategy, he was blindsided and sent home first.

So how does this kind of forethought doom your tribe? Well, if you get Ulonged (actually, let's use Matsinged in this instance), you won't even make it to the merge, let alone have a chance to strategize. Time and time again, we see physically strong players who are perceived as threats voted out quickly by the "strategic-thinking" castaways. We saw it last night with Garrett, and to a lesser extend, David. These two became instantly locked in a power struggle at the very beginning of the episode when Leader David was forced to pick a weak player, and chose Garrett.

They would both see their
torches snuffed by the end of the night.

The reasoning David gave in post-game interviews was decent, at least. He thought Trish, Morgan, and Garrett were going to compete in a challenge, and he wanted Garrett to win for Luzon. Apparently, David even explained this to Garrett back at the beach, but it didn't matter. Both of these two power players were enemies now. They would both see their torches snuffed by the end of the night.

The Brains tribe suffered through a disastrous performance in the physical first challenge, and then pulled out a major upset in the second, leading it, only to be overthrown by an even greater comeback from Solana. Both cases would suggest that they could use some extra muscle (and maybe a better puzzle-solver). So why vote out Garrett?! I get that he was annoying, he was brash, he was loud, rude, arrogant, and a control-freak, but when you're on a weaker tribe that's getting dominated in the challenges, you never, ever, ever vote out your powerhouse player.

If Luzon can lose two challenges so handily with Garrett, who knows what new levels of chaos and dysfunctionality can they achieve without him? And being two men down allows Aparri and Solana to sit out their weakest players, giving them even more of an edge. The "Brains" of the Brains tribe committed a fatal error--they sacrificed strength for alliances.

Weaker women like Sherri and Laura,
who were really costing Gota in the
challenges, stayed in power.

Strength vs. Alliances. It's the age-old conundrum affecting Survivor that always seems to be in question at the beginning of the game. We can fault Luzon all we want, but they're just one of many tribes that has been whittled down by making the wrong choice. A great example of this is the Gota Tribe of Survivor: Caramoan—the Fans. Remember them? With Reynold, Hope, Allie, and Eddie on the outs in a tribe of 10, the girls were being picked off. Meanwhile, weaker women like Sherri and Laura, who were really costing Gota in the challenges, stayed in power.

Finally events came to a head when the Fans lost their umpteenth challenge in a row and had to start making some tough decisions. With Shamar evacuated, Reynold and Eddie pleaded with Matt and Michael, the swing votes, to make the right call and take out Laura A. instead of one of the two Amigos. Eventually, even Sherri had to go along with it and the weakest Fan was voted out. Of course, Gota didn't start winning challenges after that, but you get the idea.

Voting out Dr. Cody weakened the tribe
immensely and also set up Brad
as the next player on the chopping block.

Last season is another great (or terrible) instance of players thinking too far ahead and making some poor decisions because of it. Brad Culpepper and his Five Guys alliance (five in nine equals in, remember) quickly booted Marissa, because she opposed Brad, and Rachel, in a vain attempt to target Tyson.

Starting off the season, the Galang women already had the upper hand against the loved ones, and keeping around the weaker girls—Katie and Ciera—was not the right move. And then Brad decided to blindside John to keep himself feeling like he was in charge of his alliance. Yes, John had some idol clues, and yes, he was acting shifty, but it still was not the right move. Voting out Dr. Cody weakened the tribe immensely and also set up Brad as the next player on the chopping block.


And indeed, he was voted out next in another blindside, leaving Tadhana as weak as possible. Somehow, they pulled out a win in a luck-based ring toss challenge, but this doesn't take away from the validity of the argument: you need muscle to win challenges! It's a simple fact; if you can't get your tribe to the merge relatively intact, there will not even be an endgame for you, no matter how much you've prepared for it by taking out the big threats. If Luzon is smart (and clearly they're not) they'll vote off J'Tia next, since she doesn't contribute at camp nor in the challenges, and then Kass if it comes to it.

But it's probably too late for Luzon. It's not too late for you, Survivors of Seasons 29 and 30. Don't make the same mistake(s) as David. Don't worry about the second two-thirds of the game.