For today's Survivor feature article, Ethan's and my topics aligned, so I decided to combine them together. We're both going to talk a little bit about the role that all-women and all-men alliances play on Survivor, and in Cagayan in particular. Tomorrow, we'll have a recap of The Amazing Race Episode 3 for you, so stay tuned! (Image credit to CBS)
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| We're both going to talk a little bit about the role that all-women and all-men alliances play on Survivor. |
Single-Gender Alliances
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| Vytas was the next pick to be voted off. |
Now in BBB, on the Brains tribe, Kass, J'Tia and Tasha have formed an alliance and seem intent on bringing destruction to the other guys on the team. They voted off David and Garrett, and now have threatened to vote off Spencer if they lose another challenge. Fortunately for Spencer, Luzon made a surprise comeback at the puzzle and beat the Beauty tribe, sparing him.
This all-girl alliance is bad news for Spencer, because it is the hardest type of alliance to break. All women alliances are focused on the similarities of the people within and the differences of the people outside the alliance. If their are no changes to Luzon's current dynamic, and the Brains lose the next challenge, Spencer will be forced to sway not one, but two of the girls to his side to win the vote.
This alliance is solid for now, but I believe that it will break apart if there are any additions or losses to Luzon, like in a tribe swap/dissolve. Kass and Tasha both are only with J'Tia to have a majority and will most likely leave her as soon as she loses her worth. Although this specific alliance will most likely fall apart, I believe Kass and Tasha may stick together and if they are still together when one tribe dissolves, they might expand their alliance to any new girls added to the tribe.
Marcus:
Will We See The Black Widow Alliance 3.0?
We've seen many breeds and varieties of alliances on Survivor, from those formed through race (Cook Islands, Fiji), religion (South Pacific), or circumstance (Exile Alliance from Tocantins). Most commonly, a random group of strangers bonds on one tribe and sticks together till the end.
There is one type of alliance, though, that has persevered better than all the others: alliances of the same sex.
On the Amazon, Vanuatu, and One World, we've seen tribes divided into men and women, often with explosive results. Cliques of "hot girls" like Jenna, Heidi, and Shawna, "strong guys" Matt Quinlan, Michael, and Jay, and everything in between has formed on these seasons.
One trend seems clear, though: men have a harder time sticking together than women do. I know that this doesn't fit the common stereotype, and it doesn't fit what I'm going to say about this season, but it does seem to be true. On the Amazon, Jenna, Heidi, and Shawna were extremely close, whereas Rob and Alex plotted the other men's demise. In Vanuatu, Chris Daugherty was the only man left late in the game, up against an alliance of women. And in One World, Kim and her minions crushed all the men of Manono.
But we've also seen these all-male and all-female alliances even on seasons that aren't "boys vs. girls." Brad Culpepper's Five Guys alliance in Blood vs. Water is a recent example of such, even though it imploded relatively soon, proving my earlier point. This "Brigade-type" alliance (named for really the only all-guys alliance that has ever worked, and that was in Big Brother) never succeeds. It is true that there can be strong partnerships of men on Survivor (Richard and Rudy, Rob and Matt, Stephen and JT, Lex and Tom) but a larger alliance always crumbles.
On the other side of the coin, however, is the women's alliance, which we've seen achieve success much more than the men. I've talked about Kim's Black Widows already, but there is a much better known example of the all-female group: the original Black Widows. This cutthroat, backstabbing group of women controlled Micronesia from the merge to the end, and the most ruthless of them won the game. Their names are rather well-known, but I'll say them again.
Parvati. Amanda. Cirie. Natalie. Alexis. People often forget about Alexis, but she was just as cunning as the rest of them; she just had to be cut early after Erik won immunity. Oh, poor Erik. But we all know about that; no need to rehash what was possibly the greatest move in Survivor history.
Both groups of Black Widows dominated the game, and it was clear from early on that a member of these groups would win. Parvati and Kim are two of the best winners of Survivor to date, and their strategies were perfect for their seasons.
But I'm here to answer the question of whether we will see a third Black Widow alliance, on Survivor: Cagayan. All the signs are there: this is the first season that the first three boots have been male, and we have several strong women like Sarah and Tasha.
But the short answer is no. No, sadly, we will not see a return of the Black Widows this season. Why, you ask?
Even though we have plenty of interesting women this season, and the first three to leave have been guys, I don't think that the remaining women have what it takes to take down the men. People like LJ, Spencer, and Tony are here to play, and I don't think we have enough girls that are similarly in the game. Sarah, of course, is playing hard, but she's already been duped by Tony and doesn't seem to be very close to Lindsey or Trish on her tribe.
I would say that the most manipulative, likely Black Widow candidates would be Sarah, Tasha, Kass, and maybe Morgan, but the likelihood of all four making the merge is small, and the chances of four opinionated women from different tribes joining together even smaller. The other girls are just sitting in the background. Alexis and Jefra are in LJ's back pocket, J'Tia is going crazy from rice-withdrawal, Lindsey is solidly with Cliff and Woo, and Trish has so far done nothing on the Brawn tribe.
We could certainly see smaller twosomes, like Tasha and Kass/J'Tia or Alexis and Jefra making it far while watching each other's backs, but I don't think there are enough conniving women that can match wits with people who are clearly here to play, like LJ and Tony. A woman can definitely still win this season over other men; Sophie beat Coach and Albert, Natalie beat Mick and Russell, and Denise triumphed over Mike Skupin, along with many other examples. I just don't think we're going to see the final five made up of Alexis, J'Tia, Jefra, Kass, and Trish, who somehow backstabbed their way to the end.
I could certainly be proved wrong. Sarah is intent on targeting "him" next week (either Cliff or Tony) and we still have at least 3 Tribal Councils before the merge. Maybe we'll see another two or three men voted out, through different circumstances, before the merge, which would make a final 5 of women numerically probable. I doubt it...but it's definitely possible.
I'm ready to see the women get together and make to the end again; it's been a while. Let's break the trend of male winners and see Sarah form an unbreakable Black Widow Alliance 3.0. Cagayan, please surprise me. I dare you.
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| This all-girl alliance is bad news for Spencer, because it is the hardest type of alliance to break. |
This all-girl alliance is bad news for Spencer, because it is the hardest type of alliance to break. All women alliances are focused on the similarities of the people within and the differences of the people outside the alliance. If their are no changes to Luzon's current dynamic, and the Brains lose the next challenge, Spencer will be forced to sway not one, but two of the girls to his side to win the vote.
This alliance is solid for now, but I believe that it will break apart if there are any additions or losses to Luzon, like in a tribe swap/dissolve. Kass and Tasha both are only with J'Tia to have a majority and will most likely leave her as soon as she loses her worth. Although this specific alliance will most likely fall apart, I believe Kass and Tasha may stick together and if they are still together when one tribe dissolves, they might expand their alliance to any new girls added to the tribe.
Marcus:
Will We See The Black Widow Alliance 3.0?
We've seen many breeds and varieties of alliances on Survivor, from those formed through race (Cook Islands, Fiji), religion (South Pacific), or circumstance (Exile Alliance from Tocantins). Most commonly, a random group of strangers bonds on one tribe and sticks together till the end.
There is one type of alliance, though, that has persevered better than all the others: alliances of the same sex.
 |
| Cliques of "hot girls" like Jenna, Heidi, and Shawna. |
One trend seems clear, though: men have a harder time sticking together than women do. I know that this doesn't fit the common stereotype, and it doesn't fit what I'm going to say about this season, but it does seem to be true. On the Amazon, Jenna, Heidi, and Shawna were extremely close, whereas Rob and Alex plotted the other men's demise. In Vanuatu, Chris Daugherty was the only man left late in the game, up against an alliance of women. And in One World, Kim and her minions crushed all the men of Manono.
But we've also seen these all-male and all-female alliances even on seasons that aren't "boys vs. girls." Brad Culpepper's Five Guys alliance in Blood vs. Water is a recent example of such, even though it imploded relatively soon, proving my earlier point. This "Brigade-type" alliance (named for really the only all-guys alliance that has ever worked, and that was in Big Brother) never succeeds. It is true that there can be strong partnerships of men on Survivor (Richard and Rudy, Rob and Matt, Stephen and JT, Lex and Tom) but a larger alliance always crumbles.
 |
| This cutthroat, backstabbing group of women controlled Micronesia from the merge to the end. |
Parvati. Amanda. Cirie. Natalie. Alexis. People often forget about Alexis, but she was just as cunning as the rest of them; she just had to be cut early after Erik won immunity. Oh, poor Erik. But we all know about that; no need to rehash what was possibly the greatest move in Survivor history.
 |
| People often forget about Alexis, but she was just as cunning as the rest of them. |
Both groups of Black Widows dominated the game, and it was clear from early on that a member of these groups would win. Parvati and Kim are two of the best winners of Survivor to date, and their strategies were perfect for their seasons.
But I'm here to answer the question of whether we will see a third Black Widow alliance, on Survivor: Cagayan. All the signs are there: this is the first season that the first three boots have been male, and we have several strong women like Sarah and Tasha.
But the short answer is no. No, sadly, we will not see a return of the Black Widows this season. Why, you ask?
 |
| Sadly, we will not see a return of the Black Widows this season. Sorry, Jerri. |
I would say that the most manipulative, likely Black Widow candidates would be Sarah, Tasha, Kass, and maybe Morgan, but the likelihood of all four making the merge is small, and the chances of four opinionated women from different tribes joining together even smaller. The other girls are just sitting in the background. Alexis and Jefra are in LJ's back pocket, J'Tia is going crazy from rice-withdrawal, Lindsey is solidly with Cliff and Woo, and Trish has so far done nothing on the Brawn tribe.
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| Let's break the trend of male winners and see Sarah form an unbreakable Black Widow Alliance 3.0. |
I could certainly be proved wrong. Sarah is intent on targeting "him" next week (either Cliff or Tony) and we still have at least 3 Tribal Councils before the merge. Maybe we'll see another two or three men voted out, through different circumstances, before the merge, which would make a final 5 of women numerically probable. I doubt it...but it's definitely possible.
I'm ready to see the women get together and make to the end again; it's been a while. Let's break the trend of male winners and see Sarah form an unbreakable Black Widow Alliance 3.0. Cagayan, please surprise me. I dare you.
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