Previewing the Survivor: Cagayan Merge

The merge is rapidly approaching.

With the merge rapidly approaching, Ethan and I both wrote about what we think might happen this upcoming week. Ethan's going to talk about the three players he thinks will be making moves and controlling the game after the merge, and I'm going to take a look at the long-standing belief that the strong men are usually targeted right after the merge. (Image credit CBS)

Top Three Power Players

These are the three players in the position to make the biggest moves and the biggest waves in the upcoming merge. Let's take a look at the paths they've each taken to make it to the merge, and what they're going to need to do in order to win the game.

Spencer: Spencer began the game with a strategy of staying under the radar. He allied himself with Garrett, who had a large personality and overshadowed Spencer. This isn't a bad idea at the beginning of the game, but unfortunately for Spencer, Garrett was quickly voted out. This left Spencer all alone against a group of three girls who had a relatively close alliance. The one weakness in it was J'Tia, who was weak in challenges and a little wild. Fortunately enough, Spencer was able to convince Kass and Tasha that he would stay loyal and that he was a lot more help to them than J'Tia would be.

Spencer will definitely have
some difficulty riding
this out to the end.

Soon after this came the swap, and Spencer had two choices. He could either stick with his Brains tribe alliance or take this moment to jump ship and start fresh with the Beauty girls and maybe Sarah. He made the correct decision in this case and stayed with the Brains, who had control of the tribe. Even though Beauty had an equal number of people, they were not cohesive. This puts Spencer in a great position to work with the Brains and control the votes. 

After the merge, though, Spencer won't have such a good spot. A tight triple alliance like the Brains gives the message that these three want to go to the end together, and anyone who works with them will get voted off when they lose their use. Spencer has three good choices post-merge, as I see it. 

He can A) jump ship and join a different alliance, which would probably be Sarah and any Beauties he can scavenge, B) stay with the Brain's alliance, but become more distant with Kass and Tasha so that their partnership is less obvious and they become less of a threat, or C) pretend to continue working with the Brains, but sell them out to the Solana group.

Spencer may have it good now, but he will definitely have some difficulty riding this out to the end. In terms of his edit, Spencer definitely has the best out of the Brains. He will either make it to the end and lose, win the game, or at least make a big move.

Cliff went home and Sarah is none the wiser.

Tony: Tony began the game as a big player with a big personality who, although likable, would stop at nothing to win the game. Tony is placed on the Brawn tribe and is a cop, but he doesn't want that to be known. He even lies to Sarah and tells her he works in construction. Tony made a big deal out of this and believed he would be targeted if others knew he was a police officer. This can't be true, of course, because Sarah didn't hide the fact that she's a cop, and no one went after her. 

Later on, Tony tells Sarah that he is a cop, and surprisingly enough, even though he lied to her, she trusts him more for it. Tony also lies to Sarah about being in a "Blue Bloods Cops 'R Us" alliance and lies to her again, saying that Cliff is trying to get her out. In the end, though, his lying pays off; Cliff went home and Sarah is none the wiser. The strategy that Tony is implementing is a high risk one. One slip and Sarah will leave him, but if he can pull it off, he gets what he wishes without getting blood on his hands. 

Tony becomes very comfortable in his position on Brawn, and continues feeling safe and comfortable after the swap, which is a mistake. The only person on Brawn truly under his thumb is Sarah, and she's now on the other tribe. Tony also now has some more subtle players on his tribe such as LJ, who doesn't show his true feelings. Tony's constant lying is made clear when he brags about tricking the other tribe with the fake clue. 

Tony felt too secure in his current spot.

This was one of the worst moves he could have made, because Tony is seen as a huge social and strategic threat. He then makes another big mistake, yelling "Top 5 at a challenge. This is like telling everyone "I already have my alliance and I will take you down," which not only isolates himself but also unites the 6 on the other tribe against his 5. Tony played a really good early game--albeit a little ambitious--and it panned out, but he felt too secure in his current spot, and as we all know, if you get too comfortable, you will fail. 


Tony may not have many moves left after his lying and Final Five comment. His post-merge play is probably not going to last long and his only chance of surviving is to either win all the challenges (unlikely) or somehow redeem himself and attempt to dive under the radar. He has one other option, which is to try and throw someone else from his tribe under the bus as an alternate target, although there aren't any great candidates for that that are bigger threats than him. Tony had a good run pre-swap, but I am afraid his time is nearing an end. His edit doesn't give much hope either. His constant strategizing and numerous confessionals have dwindled to a normal amount, which could signal his impending demise.

Sarah has good social abilities.

Sarah: Sarah is a very interesting player who is both trusting and insightful. Her first moves are made with Tony, who lies to her about being a cop. She can see past the lie, but ends up letting it slide as she is unsure. Later on, Tony reveals the truth and she thinks she has made an alliance with him. Sarah is, of course, mistaken, as Tony is just playing her. He then manipulates her into thinking Cliff and Lindsey are after her, and Sarah reacts by pulling people together to throw a challenge and vote out Cliff, which shows she has good social abilities.

Sarah starts the game being a puppet for Tony's schemes, but after being separated from him, grows out of that role and becomes more powerful. When swapped to Aparri, she at first thinks she is a swing vote between Brains and Beauty, although Beauty doesn't stick together She slowly meshes with her new tribe and becomes part of the Brains alliance, but doesn't truly become part of her tribe until Tony stupidly cuts the cord with the "Top Five" comment that doesn't include her. 

Sarah starts the game being
a puppet for Tony's schemes.

This entire situation forces Sarah to completely restart with a group of people that have already formed strong bonds. Sarah's merge strategy seems very restrictive at the moment; she can side with the Brains or help the surviving Beauties. However, I believe that many more options will pop up, because Solana does not have a very close alliance; both LJ and Jefra are liable to flip. It's also possible that the Brain alliance will fall apart, which would give Sarah a chance to form new relationships and alliances with people like Kass or Jeremiah, separate from the larger alliance.

Sarah definitely has a chance of winning this game. I'm not sure if she has the best shot, but if things go as I think they might, then she should have a very good one. Her edit is also pretty good and it depicts her as a little bit of an underdog, which is always a good sign.

The Rise and Fall of the Alpha Male

With the merge upon us, it's time to look ahead to the first couple members of the jury. The general impression is that big, strong, athletic guys are targeted right after the merge, but is that really true? And if so, why? Let's take a look. We'll see how many seasons I can get through.

Blood vs. Water

The Brothers Bauskauskas presented
just too much of a threat.

The theory seems to hold true here; Aras and Vytas were the first two voted out after the merge. If you'll recall, Tyson started putting together his coalition to target Aras when he, Aras, and Gervase swapped over to Tadhana, because Aras was a threat. Vytas was just unlucky enough to be Aras's brother and along for the ride as part of the alliance.

And why was Aras targeted? Because he was a likable, athletic guy who had won before and could do it again. Vytas was just as likable if not more, and twice as cunning (sorry Aras). Alone, the Brothers Bauskauskas might have had a chance, but together, they presented just too much of of a threat.

Reynold was a challenge beast.

Caramoan
Here we have a slightly different story. Our sassy friend Corinne Kaplan was the first one out after the merge, and sadly didn't make the jury. She was followed by Michael Snow, and then Phillip Sheppard, so obviously the "alpha male" targets were still around.

However, Corinne and Michael were associated with the Three Amigos, and were targeted by Stealth 'R Us. Cochran and Phillip and Dawn and Andrea felt threatened by Malcolm and his army of bros, as they should have been. As Sherri put it, "who knows what these guys are capable of?" (Or something like that) Malcolm is obviously a huge threat, and Reynold was a challenge beast; they both held idols. Eddie was a loyal vote and was very likable, so it really was the right move for the Favorite Alliance to target them. So while the young guys didn't go home right away on Caramoan, it wasn't for a lack of trying.

Philippines
Definitely an anomaly here. Philippines saw RC and then Jeff Kent go home first. It was more a story of two rival alliances (Penner, Denise, Malcolm, and Carter vs. Tandang) than taking out the bros. And when Lisa and Skupin defected, it was a mini-pagoning of the remaining Tandang members--Artis and Pete--before began thinking of jury threats like Penner, or physical threats like Carter. This time, Malcolm was able to escape the target on his back until the very end.

Jonas was definitely not the alpha type.

One World
Five guys went home in a row on One World, and most of them were relatively young and athletic. Although, I would say that in this instance they were voted out just for being guys than for being "alpha males." After all, Jonas was definitely not the alpha type. It's true, though, that people like Tarzan were kept around longer because they weren't considered threats.

South Pacific
The Savaii pagonging started with the elimination of the three young and athletic guys--Ozzy, Keith, and Jim, so it continued the pattern. Ozzy was just lucky enough to be so athletic that he could survive 6 Redemption Island duels and return to the game. Obviously he's someone you really do want to vote out right away so you have the greatest chance of sending him home.

Redemption Island
This season was basically a predictable pagonging and didn't really follow the pattern, although Matt Elrod was immediately identified as a threat by Rob and voted out again right after the merge.

Nicaragua 
This season definitely did not follow the pattern either, with three young guys making it to the end. Most of the girls were voted out relatively quickly, with Alina being the first to leave. Alliances had a lot more to do with the boot order of this season than it did in Redemption Island or South Pacific, simply because there was a tribe swap that switched things around a bit.

J.T. was a sociable winner.

Heroes vs. Villains
HvV was unique in that most of the athletic men were actually voted off before the merge--people like Tyson and James. Out of the 10 people in Yin Yang, I would say that only J.T. qualified for this title (Colby had lost his luster, although he and Russell and even Rupert held their own in challenges), and he was voted off first. This was in part due to his threatening challenge prowess, but J.T. was also a sociable winner. Although I think that Parvati and Russell just wanted to vote out the guy that they duped right after they tricked him. With an All Stars season, there are other factors in play, so it's hard to count HvV in the rankings.

Samoa
Poor, doomed Galu. Erik was the first one gone from Galu, right at the merge, but after that it was a simple pagonging, with each castaway being voted out for different reasons.

Tocantins
Now we pick up the pattern once again. Of course, J.T. and Stephen were the final two, but I would say that Coach was more the alpha male in this case. And Joe (although he was medivaced), Brendan, and Tyson were the first ones out at the merge. Brendan was "the Dragon" and considered a big threat to Coach, and Tyson's own alliance blindsided him because he was such a physical threat.

Gabon
Charlie was the first one out, but that was really the result of the pagonging by the Kenny/Susie/Crystal/Matty/Sugar alliance. What's more important is the blindside of Marcus the week before the merge. Marcus was considered a huge threat and was voted out in anticipation of a merge, so that the others wouldn't have to face him in challenges and he couldn't lead his alliance.

Micronesia

The blindsides of Ozzy and Jason were
pivotal, exciting moments of the season.

Let's end with the biggest downfall of the young guys that we've ever seen on Survivor. After Eliza, it was Ozzy, Jason, and James (although admittedly, James was medivaced). Still, the blindsides of Ozzy and Jason were pivotal, exciting moments of the season. The only man to escape being voted out right away was Erik, and we know very well how his story ended.

So why are these guys targeted? I think it's actually pretty simple. Castaways don't want to compete with the Ozzys and the Malcolms and the Arases of the world. They're likable (well not Ozzy) and often extremely good in challenges, and like the Three Amigos or the Bauskauskas Brothers, tend to band together. I really don't think there's much more to it than that...and it's a good tactic. When there's Redemption Island in play, Ozzy keeps coming back. When you let Malcolm slip to the end, he wins (but Denise cut him short). And if you're not careful (and the guy doesn't pull an Erik Reichenbach), he can win a bunch of immunities and win the game (J.T. and Fabio).

I think Woo is in trouble.

What does this mean for our Cagayan contestants? Well, for starters, I think Woo is in trouble. He's in what I think is the minority alliance (because I don't think Sarah will flip and Jeremiah will probably stay loyal as well) and sticks out like a sore thumb compared to Jefra or Trish. LJ is also a threat. He's not a super young guy, but he does fit the stereotype of the alpha male, and has proven himself a force to be reckoned with in challenges. Tony is an alpha male as well, and will probably see his torch snuffed in the next couple weeks. Even Jeremiah, when the Brains have no further use for him, will see himself blindsided.

Morgan has been all but
invisible for the past
couple of weeks.

The smarter, smaller players will be the ones making it to the end on this season. Not smaller in stature (necessarily), but smaller as in under the radar. Morgan has been all but invisible for the past couple of weeks, but not in the bad Purple Kelly or Vanilla Julia kind of way. She's still getting confessionals (except for last week) and her edit usually plays a central role in a recap, so I think she's looking to make it far in this post-merge environment. The Brains are going to be a big target soon enough--and Spencer in particular--but for now they should be safe, and even when they are exposed, who's looking at Kass? Similarly, Jefra and Sarah should be able to slip through the cracks easily for the next couple of weeks.

Of course, these are just predictions, and I'm sure at least one of Jeremiah, Woo, Tony, LJ, or Spencer will make it to the endgame (Final 7 at least), but I think in general, the alpha males (and even beta males, in Woo's case) are in trouble. If history repeats itself, an athletic guy will be going home this week, and you can bet on seeing Woo's name in the bottom of my power rankings this week. Woo, I wish you luck.

Tomorrow (or actually today) we've got an Amazing Race recap coming your way (not sure if it'll be text or audio yet), and then a Sunday episode BBCAN recap on Monday, so stay tuned!