Mid-Season Look at The Amazing Race All Stars

It's been six episodes so far of The Amazing Race, and tonight, Ethan and I are recapping it all. We'll spend most of our time on the 6th episode, but we also discuss our power rankings, the lack of a U-Turn, and episodes 2-5. Click below to listen to our conversation! Tomorrow/today I have a BBCAN recap coming for you, so stay tuned!

Site Updates

I'm always trying to update and add new things to Survivor Scrutiny; I'm sure you've noticed the addition of the slideshow displaying featured posts for the past few weeks. Today I added some links to other Survivor resource sites, like Rob Cesternino's website and Survivor Wikia. You can check out those links on the sidebar if you scroll down just a little bit.

I also updated the schedule, so that it more accurately represents what we hope to post each day. I can't say we will follow it 100%, but in general what you see on the schedule is what you get.

Let me know if you like what you're seeing in Survivor Scrutiny as we close out our first full month of Survivor, Big Brother Canada, and The Amazing Race coverage. As always, feel free to give suggestions on how the site can be improved!

Later today we'll have a TAR E6 recap for you, so stay tuned!

Previewing the Survivor: Cagayan Merge

The merge is rapidly approaching.

With the merge rapidly approaching, Ethan and I both wrote about what we think might happen this upcoming week. Ethan's going to talk about the three players he thinks will be making moves and controlling the game after the merge, and I'm going to take a look at the long-standing belief that the strong men are usually targeted right after the merge. (Image credit CBS)

Top Three Power Players

These are the three players in the position to make the biggest moves and the biggest waves in the upcoming merge. Let's take a look at the paths they've each taken to make it to the merge, and what they're going to need to do in order to win the game.

Spencer: Spencer began the game with a strategy of staying under the radar. He allied himself with Garrett, who had a large personality and overshadowed Spencer. This isn't a bad idea at the beginning of the game, but unfortunately for Spencer, Garrett was quickly voted out. This left Spencer all alone against a group of three girls who had a relatively close alliance. The one weakness in it was J'Tia, who was weak in challenges and a little wild. Fortunately enough, Spencer was able to convince Kass and Tasha that he would stay loyal and that he was a lot more help to them than J'Tia would be.

Spencer will definitely have
some difficulty riding
this out to the end.

Soon after this came the swap, and Spencer had two choices. He could either stick with his Brains tribe alliance or take this moment to jump ship and start fresh with the Beauty girls and maybe Sarah. He made the correct decision in this case and stayed with the Brains, who had control of the tribe. Even though Beauty had an equal number of people, they were not cohesive. This puts Spencer in a great position to work with the Brains and control the votes. 

After the merge, though, Spencer won't have such a good spot. A tight triple alliance like the Brains gives the message that these three want to go to the end together, and anyone who works with them will get voted off when they lose their use. Spencer has three good choices post-merge, as I see it. 

He can A) jump ship and join a different alliance, which would probably be Sarah and any Beauties he can scavenge, B) stay with the Brain's alliance, but become more distant with Kass and Tasha so that their partnership is less obvious and they become less of a threat, or C) pretend to continue working with the Brains, but sell them out to the Solana group.

Spencer may have it good now, but he will definitely have some difficulty riding this out to the end. In terms of his edit, Spencer definitely has the best out of the Brains. He will either make it to the end and lose, win the game, or at least make a big move.

Cliff went home and Sarah is none the wiser.

Tony: Tony began the game as a big player with a big personality who, although likable, would stop at nothing to win the game. Tony is placed on the Brawn tribe and is a cop, but he doesn't want that to be known. He even lies to Sarah and tells her he works in construction. Tony made a big deal out of this and believed he would be targeted if others knew he was a police officer. This can't be true, of course, because Sarah didn't hide the fact that she's a cop, and no one went after her. 

Later on, Tony tells Sarah that he is a cop, and surprisingly enough, even though he lied to her, she trusts him more for it. Tony also lies to Sarah about being in a "Blue Bloods Cops 'R Us" alliance and lies to her again, saying that Cliff is trying to get her out. In the end, though, his lying pays off; Cliff went home and Sarah is none the wiser. The strategy that Tony is implementing is a high risk one. One slip and Sarah will leave him, but if he can pull it off, he gets what he wishes without getting blood on his hands. 

Tony becomes very comfortable in his position on Brawn, and continues feeling safe and comfortable after the swap, which is a mistake. The only person on Brawn truly under his thumb is Sarah, and she's now on the other tribe. Tony also now has some more subtle players on his tribe such as LJ, who doesn't show his true feelings. Tony's constant lying is made clear when he brags about tricking the other tribe with the fake clue. 

Tony felt too secure in his current spot.

This was one of the worst moves he could have made, because Tony is seen as a huge social and strategic threat. He then makes another big mistake, yelling "Top 5 at a challenge. This is like telling everyone "I already have my alliance and I will take you down," which not only isolates himself but also unites the 6 on the other tribe against his 5. Tony played a really good early game--albeit a little ambitious--and it panned out, but he felt too secure in his current spot, and as we all know, if you get too comfortable, you will fail. 


Tony may not have many moves left after his lying and Final Five comment. His post-merge play is probably not going to last long and his only chance of surviving is to either win all the challenges (unlikely) or somehow redeem himself and attempt to dive under the radar. He has one other option, which is to try and throw someone else from his tribe under the bus as an alternate target, although there aren't any great candidates for that that are bigger threats than him. Tony had a good run pre-swap, but I am afraid his time is nearing an end. His edit doesn't give much hope either. His constant strategizing and numerous confessionals have dwindled to a normal amount, which could signal his impending demise.

Sarah has good social abilities.

Sarah: Sarah is a very interesting player who is both trusting and insightful. Her first moves are made with Tony, who lies to her about being a cop. She can see past the lie, but ends up letting it slide as she is unsure. Later on, Tony reveals the truth and she thinks she has made an alliance with him. Sarah is, of course, mistaken, as Tony is just playing her. He then manipulates her into thinking Cliff and Lindsey are after her, and Sarah reacts by pulling people together to throw a challenge and vote out Cliff, which shows she has good social abilities.

Sarah starts the game being a puppet for Tony's schemes, but after being separated from him, grows out of that role and becomes more powerful. When swapped to Aparri, she at first thinks she is a swing vote between Brains and Beauty, although Beauty doesn't stick together She slowly meshes with her new tribe and becomes part of the Brains alliance, but doesn't truly become part of her tribe until Tony stupidly cuts the cord with the "Top Five" comment that doesn't include her. 

Sarah starts the game being
a puppet for Tony's schemes.

This entire situation forces Sarah to completely restart with a group of people that have already formed strong bonds. Sarah's merge strategy seems very restrictive at the moment; she can side with the Brains or help the surviving Beauties. However, I believe that many more options will pop up, because Solana does not have a very close alliance; both LJ and Jefra are liable to flip. It's also possible that the Brain alliance will fall apart, which would give Sarah a chance to form new relationships and alliances with people like Kass or Jeremiah, separate from the larger alliance.

Sarah definitely has a chance of winning this game. I'm not sure if she has the best shot, but if things go as I think they might, then she should have a very good one. Her edit is also pretty good and it depicts her as a little bit of an underdog, which is always a good sign.

The Rise and Fall of the Alpha Male

With the merge upon us, it's time to look ahead to the first couple members of the jury. The general impression is that big, strong, athletic guys are targeted right after the merge, but is that really true? And if so, why? Let's take a look. We'll see how many seasons I can get through.

Blood vs. Water

The Brothers Bauskauskas presented
just too much of a threat.

The theory seems to hold true here; Aras and Vytas were the first two voted out after the merge. If you'll recall, Tyson started putting together his coalition to target Aras when he, Aras, and Gervase swapped over to Tadhana, because Aras was a threat. Vytas was just unlucky enough to be Aras's brother and along for the ride as part of the alliance.

And why was Aras targeted? Because he was a likable, athletic guy who had won before and could do it again. Vytas was just as likable if not more, and twice as cunning (sorry Aras). Alone, the Brothers Bauskauskas might have had a chance, but together, they presented just too much of of a threat.

Reynold was a challenge beast.

Caramoan
Here we have a slightly different story. Our sassy friend Corinne Kaplan was the first one out after the merge, and sadly didn't make the jury. She was followed by Michael Snow, and then Phillip Sheppard, so obviously the "alpha male" targets were still around.

However, Corinne and Michael were associated with the Three Amigos, and were targeted by Stealth 'R Us. Cochran and Phillip and Dawn and Andrea felt threatened by Malcolm and his army of bros, as they should have been. As Sherri put it, "who knows what these guys are capable of?" (Or something like that) Malcolm is obviously a huge threat, and Reynold was a challenge beast; they both held idols. Eddie was a loyal vote and was very likable, so it really was the right move for the Favorite Alliance to target them. So while the young guys didn't go home right away on Caramoan, it wasn't for a lack of trying.

Philippines
Definitely an anomaly here. Philippines saw RC and then Jeff Kent go home first. It was more a story of two rival alliances (Penner, Denise, Malcolm, and Carter vs. Tandang) than taking out the bros. And when Lisa and Skupin defected, it was a mini-pagoning of the remaining Tandang members--Artis and Pete--before began thinking of jury threats like Penner, or physical threats like Carter. This time, Malcolm was able to escape the target on his back until the very end.

Jonas was definitely not the alpha type.

One World
Five guys went home in a row on One World, and most of them were relatively young and athletic. Although, I would say that in this instance they were voted out just for being guys than for being "alpha males." After all, Jonas was definitely not the alpha type. It's true, though, that people like Tarzan were kept around longer because they weren't considered threats.

South Pacific
The Savaii pagonging started with the elimination of the three young and athletic guys--Ozzy, Keith, and Jim, so it continued the pattern. Ozzy was just lucky enough to be so athletic that he could survive 6 Redemption Island duels and return to the game. Obviously he's someone you really do want to vote out right away so you have the greatest chance of sending him home.

Redemption Island
This season was basically a predictable pagonging and didn't really follow the pattern, although Matt Elrod was immediately identified as a threat by Rob and voted out again right after the merge.

Nicaragua 
This season definitely did not follow the pattern either, with three young guys making it to the end. Most of the girls were voted out relatively quickly, with Alina being the first to leave. Alliances had a lot more to do with the boot order of this season than it did in Redemption Island or South Pacific, simply because there was a tribe swap that switched things around a bit.

J.T. was a sociable winner.

Heroes vs. Villains
HvV was unique in that most of the athletic men were actually voted off before the merge--people like Tyson and James. Out of the 10 people in Yin Yang, I would say that only J.T. qualified for this title (Colby had lost his luster, although he and Russell and even Rupert held their own in challenges), and he was voted off first. This was in part due to his threatening challenge prowess, but J.T. was also a sociable winner. Although I think that Parvati and Russell just wanted to vote out the guy that they duped right after they tricked him. With an All Stars season, there are other factors in play, so it's hard to count HvV in the rankings.

Samoa
Poor, doomed Galu. Erik was the first one gone from Galu, right at the merge, but after that it was a simple pagonging, with each castaway being voted out for different reasons.

Tocantins
Now we pick up the pattern once again. Of course, J.T. and Stephen were the final two, but I would say that Coach was more the alpha male in this case. And Joe (although he was medivaced), Brendan, and Tyson were the first ones out at the merge. Brendan was "the Dragon" and considered a big threat to Coach, and Tyson's own alliance blindsided him because he was such a physical threat.

Gabon
Charlie was the first one out, but that was really the result of the pagonging by the Kenny/Susie/Crystal/Matty/Sugar alliance. What's more important is the blindside of Marcus the week before the merge. Marcus was considered a huge threat and was voted out in anticipation of a merge, so that the others wouldn't have to face him in challenges and he couldn't lead his alliance.

Micronesia

The blindsides of Ozzy and Jason were
pivotal, exciting moments of the season.

Let's end with the biggest downfall of the young guys that we've ever seen on Survivor. After Eliza, it was Ozzy, Jason, and James (although admittedly, James was medivaced). Still, the blindsides of Ozzy and Jason were pivotal, exciting moments of the season. The only man to escape being voted out right away was Erik, and we know very well how his story ended.

So why are these guys targeted? I think it's actually pretty simple. Castaways don't want to compete with the Ozzys and the Malcolms and the Arases of the world. They're likable (well not Ozzy) and often extremely good in challenges, and like the Three Amigos or the Bauskauskas Brothers, tend to band together. I really don't think there's much more to it than that...and it's a good tactic. When there's Redemption Island in play, Ozzy keeps coming back. When you let Malcolm slip to the end, he wins (but Denise cut him short). And if you're not careful (and the guy doesn't pull an Erik Reichenbach), he can win a bunch of immunities and win the game (J.T. and Fabio).

I think Woo is in trouble.

What does this mean for our Cagayan contestants? Well, for starters, I think Woo is in trouble. He's in what I think is the minority alliance (because I don't think Sarah will flip and Jeremiah will probably stay loyal as well) and sticks out like a sore thumb compared to Jefra or Trish. LJ is also a threat. He's not a super young guy, but he does fit the stereotype of the alpha male, and has proven himself a force to be reckoned with in challenges. Tony is an alpha male as well, and will probably see his torch snuffed in the next couple weeks. Even Jeremiah, when the Brains have no further use for him, will see himself blindsided.

Morgan has been all but
invisible for the past
couple of weeks.

The smarter, smaller players will be the ones making it to the end on this season. Not smaller in stature (necessarily), but smaller as in under the radar. Morgan has been all but invisible for the past couple of weeks, but not in the bad Purple Kelly or Vanilla Julia kind of way. She's still getting confessionals (except for last week) and her edit usually plays a central role in a recap, so I think she's looking to make it far in this post-merge environment. The Brains are going to be a big target soon enough--and Spencer in particular--but for now they should be safe, and even when they are exposed, who's looking at Kass? Similarly, Jefra and Sarah should be able to slip through the cracks easily for the next couple of weeks.

Of course, these are just predictions, and I'm sure at least one of Jeremiah, Woo, Tony, LJ, or Spencer will make it to the endgame (Final 7 at least), but I think in general, the alpha males (and even beta males, in Woo's case) are in trouble. If history repeats itself, an athletic guy will be going home this week, and you can bet on seeing Woo's name in the bottom of my power rankings this week. Woo, I wish you luck.

Tomorrow (or actually today) we've got an Amazing Race recap coming your way (not sure if it'll be text or audio yet), and then a Sunday episode BBCAN recap on Monday, so stay tuned!

Recapping the Fourth Week of BBCAN2

Poor Ika.

I think this whole week was one of Big Brother Canada's strongest so far. It's time to recap these past two episodes and talk about the events leading up to Ika's eviction. (Image credit Slice)

Poor Ika. She realized what she needed to do too late, and worked as hard as she could to convince Rachelle to make the right move and put up Kenny and Andrew. But Sabrina, as I talked about on Monday, is controlling Rachelle like a puppet, and we left off Sunday night with Allison and Heather up on the block.

Somehow 4th place
Allison was left
with the POV.

At the POV (and I always love this challenge), somehow fourth place Allison was left with the Power of Veto and removed herself from the block...and you had to pretty much know at this point that Ika was going up. We didn't have a lot of shockers on the Wednesday night show, but we did see the return of Marsha the Moose!

I love Marsha, and I was really happy that it was Arlie chosen for this great task, which included telling Allison that she'd put on weight, telling Jon he stinks, and making Kenny cry. And the reward was take-out food from Talla, who was one of my favorite players from last year's BBCAN, so it was great to see her back in the house.

Do you love it? Love it!

So that was all nice and fun, but the real drama was happening behind the scenes, as Sabrina convinced Rachelle to backdoor Ika. It really was shocking to see how the Girls' Alliance has crumbled so quickly; just last week Rachelle and Ika were best friends and now they'll barely speak to each other.

By the end of the Wednesday night show, I was pretty sure that Ika was going home and I had no idea how Big Brother was going to spice things up...but he sure did! The letters from home vs. cheque idea was really one of the best twists or choices we've seen in a long while, and what made it even better was that it was Ika making the choice.

The whole scene of her mulling over her options and the other Houseguests watching was fascinating, and let me say this right now: Ika definitely made the right choice. There was absolutely no way the First Five was going to keep her just for letting them have their letters; Ika is right about Andrew's heart being black. And I have to say, it felt pretty good to watch some of these self-righteous people in power (like Andrew and Allison) get their comeuppance.

Ika definitely made the right decision.

Anyone who was bawling their eyes out and yelling at Ika just looked ridiculous and despicable to me at that moment...what did you expect Ika to do, Andrew and Kenny?!?! You isolated her and targeted her and now you want her to give you a present?! I should think not! I was very happy Ika picked the money and was at least able to walk out of the house with something. There were some people who appeared to understand, like Sarah (surprisingly).

I was very impressed with Sarah's reaction to the shredding of the letters. She rationalized everything Ika was saying, accepting it as the truth and having the empathy to understand Ika's point of view. Of course, I'm sure it's easier said than done to stay calm when it's your letter being shredded, so I guess I'm doubly impressed with Sarah. This didn't stop Sarah from voting Ika out later, but it shouldn't have.

I'm doubly impressed
with Sarah.

And then Arisa told us that we (well, Canada) would be the HOH for this upcoming week, which I presume is Big Brother's way of shaking up the house and trying to loosen the grip the First Five has over everyone else. In theory, I'm against this whole outside influence thing, but I will admit I went to Slice's website and voted for two people, and I encourage you to do the same and put up two members of the First Five alliance to get the ball rolling again.

Who were my two nominees, you ask? Andrew and Sabrina. Andrew for obvious reasons, but I didn't choose Kenny because I think that he's not as aggressive or annoying as Andrew, and is actually playing a decent game. The same could be said for Sabrina, but she's making personal attacks against other Houseguests and went back to the policy of flipping between manipulating players and crying about it, which really bugs me. That being said, I think that the nominations will end up being Kenny and Andrew.

I really hope they are the final two.

Hopefully one of Kenny, Andrew, Sabrina, or Allison will go home this week and power will shift to the fledgling alliance of Arlie, Jon, Neda, Adel, and Heather that we've heard some rumors about over the past week. We continued to see the development of Jon's and Neda's relationship, and I really hope they are the final two. But I'm also a big fan of Arlie and Adel (Heather's nice but really dumb), so maybe this group can take control.

Let's finish off this week's recap with a look back at what I said of the Houseguests last week and what I saw of them this week that may or may not have changed my opinions.

Adel

What I said: "He could still be in trouble due to his association with Ika, but I think that his secret power will keep him safe for now."

Public Enemy #1
with the First Five.

What I saw: Adel was a true and loyal friend to Ika this week, and I think viewers (including me) like him because of that, but it's probably made him Public Enemy #1 with the First Five. Hopefully Adel can forge a new alliance and take control, or he's toast.

Sabrina

What I said: "...she's a little more subtle at controlling the house [than Amanda]. I don't like her."

What I saw: Ok, maybe not quite so subtle. Sabrina truly is a master manipulator, but her emotions are getting the best of her, and I'm ready to see her go. Even people like Sarah and Kenny are tired of her.

Jon 
What I said: "I think he's got a lot of longevity, since he's with Kenny and Andrew but also has Neda to keep him safe on the other side."
What I saw: I think Jon's position with the First Five was hurt a little this week due to his connections with Ika and Neda, but he should be able to ride this out and could be in a great position if he can topple the First Five.

My enthusiasm for Kenny
is waning. 

Kenny 
What I said: "Kenny's still a huge target, and even though he's playing a great game, could go up on the block this week."

What I saw: My enthusiasm for Kenny is waning, but I still have enough of it that I didn't make him one of my nominees this week. He needs to wise up and see what a big threat he is...although I think he's determined to hang on to the First Five for as long as he can, and could very well go home this week if that's what Canada wants.

Ika 

What I said: "I think Ika's in trouble unless one of her allies wins Head of Household."
What I saw: One of Ika's "allies" did win HOH and she still went home. Just like I've said to Paul and Kyle...you will be missed, Ika.

Andrew 

What I said: "Andrew's not the greatest player, but he's surrounded himself with people who are."
What I saw: All the smart, game-savvy people Andrew has surrounded himself with are liable to turn on him if necessary...Arlie and Jon are ready to flip, it seems, and I can see Sarah and Sabrina selling him out as well if it's really necessary for their games. Hopefully he leaves soon.

I am just not an Allison fan.

Allison

What I said: "I think Allison is all-in with the First Five now; there's no turning back. She seems like a good player, and should be able to outlast her boyfriend."

What I saw: I am just not an Allison fan. There are others within the First Five that I like, such as Arlie, but Allison just annoys me for some reason. That being said, she's certainly very smart, and I think she can survive the week easily.

Sarah 

What I said:  "She's going to take the fall for flipping on Ika, and could be a target of the girls if they regain the power. Sarah is a cunning player, however, and I hope she sticks around."
What I saw: As I said, I was really impressed with Sarah this week. She wasn't targeted, was able to slip silently back into the pack, and forgave (or at least understood) Ika's decision. Let's see more of Sarah; she's great.

Being on the block
actually reconciled
Ika and Heather.

Heather 
What I said:  "You have to be pretty dumb to not notice that all of your so-called allies are planning on voting you out, and you were only saved by the people who should be your enemies. I'm not sure how vengeful Heather will be, however."
What I saw: It seems like being on the the block actually reconciled Ika and Heather...at least until the decision. Heather's position in this game is now clear: she's a pawn, and a vote for whoever wants it.

Neda 

What I said: "Neda is in this for the long haul!"
What I saw: I'm just a little worried that Neda's association with Ika has made her a bit more of a target, but I think there are bigger fish to fry this week. Hopefully we see more of Neda's and Jon's alliance.

I'm really hating
cold-hearted Rachelle.

Rachelle 

What I said: "At least win the HOH for your alliance, please."What I saw: She did win HOH for her alliance...her alliance of Sabrina and Rachelle, which is really her allegiance to the First Five. I'm really hating cold-hearted Rachelle at the moment...just cause I didn't want Ika to go.

Arlie 
What I said: "Arlie is quickly becoming one of my favorite Houseguests, and his crazy schemes and theater continued with him streaking the house."
What I saw: If Neda is the smartest player, and Jon is the friendliest, then Arlie is definitely the funniest, and I think these three Houseguests are my favorites. Arlie's mission was awesome, and I hope to continue seeing Arlie in the future.

That's it for this week's BBCAN...check back on Monday for my inevitable rant when Andrew and Kenny/Sabrina/Allison somehow escape nomination yet again. We've got a Survivor feature article coming your way tomorrow, and TAR recap (maybe even a podcast) on Sunday, so stay tuned!

"We Found Our Zombies" Cagayan Recap

Join myself and Ethan as we talk about the episode right before the Survivor: Cagayan merge. We'll discuss Lindsey's quit, Tony's ups and downs, as well as who we think could be in a good position come the merge. There's also Big Brother Canada post coming later today, so stay tuned! (Image credit CBS)

"Shame on you, Lindsie" on Episode 5

This season just keeps on impressing me.

I thought we were going to see a long drawn-out feud between Trish and Lindsey, culminating in Lindsey's quit and possibly no Tribal Council (like in Colton's medivac episode). (Image credit CBS)

This season just keeps on impressing me.

Instead, we got though the conflict in five minutes, with a happy conclusion reached by all. Or at least, by the few Trish fans like myself. And then we were able to spend the rest of the episode on two great challenges, some idol clue tricks, and the social dynamics of the Aparri tribe.

Let me first say that I think Lindsey was simply dropping out of a game that she discovered was too hard for her. She found a plausible reason for a quit, saying she "didn't want to flip out" on Trish, and then left. For the third (and probably final) time...good riddance. Not sad at all to see her go.

Tony made some crazy moves this episode, which built up a lot of drama and were fun to watch, but I think he's put himself in a lot of hot water come the merge, especially because Jeremiah's still here, and he's pissed!

Tony's put himself in a lot of hot water come the merge.

Thankfully, Woo was saved when Aparri lost the immunity challenge, making it basically a toss-up whether Alexis or Jeremiah should go home. I was glad to see that Morgan was completely safe; her name never came into consideration at all and she even joined in on the Brains' and Sarah's bashing of the other two Beauties at Tribal.

I really thought Jeremiah was going home, and that the talk of Spencer distrusting Alexis was simply misdirection, so I was floored when Alexis got the boot. I may be alone in my blindside as a viewer this time around; maybe others were sure Jeremiah was safe, but I was definitely not. 

I did feel bad for Alexis afterwards, as it was clear she's a big fan of the show who expected to make it further and get to really play, and she had a decently strategic head on her shoulders, whereas Jeremiah's a nice guy but kind of like moss on a log. In her final words, Alexis reminded me a little of Allie from Caramoan; a big superfan who never got a chance.

Time for three burning questions I'm sure you're wondering!

1: Would Alexis actually have flipped? Will Jeremiah?

Two questions, really. I think that Alexis would have at least contemplated meeting back up with LJ and Jefra, but she seemed surprisingly invested in her new tribe. In retrospect, I guess Aparri made the right decision, because the previews for next episode seem to suggest that Jeremiah is in solidly with the Aparri alliance. Still, it's hard for me to believe Jeremiah won't want to defect just like Alexis would have. Although I guess the move Tony tried to pull on Jeremiah might make him wary of coming back to Solana.

2: Why wasn't this season set near the place where the immunity challenge was held?

We again got to see some of the beautiful inland grasslands of Cagayan that was first sighted in the premiere during the immunity challenge tonight. So why on earth was this season shot on the beach like every season since Tocantins? There are probably reasons...maybe it's cheaper. But I think production could have made a great season even better by filming somewhere different.

Why on earth was this season shot on the beach?

3: What will Sarah do next week?

I would think that her choice is clear, although the previews would like us to think otherwise. Sarah should stick with her new Aparri alliance after seeing how new Solana has gelled so well. Tony made what may have been a critical error this week by wildly shouting "Top five, top five!" after the challenge. I understand he was excited, and it's a human thing to do, but he totally alienated Sarah and now I think Tony has no chance to reclaim her.

I'm not sure if Ethan will be back from vacation tomorrow, but there will be a full audio recap of the episode within the next few days, so stay tuned!

Cagayan Episode 5 Power Rankings

It's time for the pre-merge edition of the Survivor power rankings. With (probably) just one episode left before Solana and Aparri become one, let's see where the castaways stand. (Image credit CBS)

Last Week: I smartly had Cliff in spot 14. Ciera had him at spot 3 and Gordon at 8.

Total Score: 35 points

This Week

1: Kass

The least conspicuous, most shrewd member of the majority alliance appears to be riding it out till the merge. Kass could be in a great spot to get all the way to the end; who's ever going to target her?

Kass could be in a great spot to get all the way to the end.

2: Tasha

Also part of the strongest alliance in Cagayan, Tasha would be slightly more of a target if the other four ganged up against Old Luzon, but come on...that's not going to happen.

3: Spencer

I don't think Spencer would do something as dumb as flipping to Morgan or Alexis, but that's why he's 3 instead of 1. Plus, again, more of a threat. But really, Spencer's in a great position.

4: Sarah

Sarah should be able to sit back, relax, and coast to the merge. Any likely targets this week in Aparri are going to emerge from the torn apart Beauty tribe, so Sarah can use this time to form stronger bonds with the Brains.

5: Tony

If Solana goes to Tribal again, the majority alliance looks pretty solid. And even if something insane
happened (look at last week) Trish or LJ will take the fall, not Tony.

The majority alliance on Solana looks pretty solid.

6: Trish

Trish really became the "Arthur of her own fate" last week, and as a result has a four-strong alliance against Woo, who doesn't have a clue, and Lindsey, who's ready to quit. I don't know if her group will stick together after the merge, but she should be fine until then.

7: LJ

LJ is an enormous target and is have to play very, very well once the merge comes, but for now, Trish and Tony (plus his idol) will keep him safe.

8: Jefra

Jefra's just being dragged along with the rest of them as a solid number. She's smart to stick with LJ, who'll provide a much bigger target come the merge.

Jefra's just being dragged along with the rest of them as a solid number.

9: Alexis
It's extremely hard to say which of the three Beauty members on Aparri is in the most trouble. Spencer was disconcerted by Alexis' eagerness to turn on her old tribemates, but she can offer the Brains numbers in the form of LJ and Jefra, and I think is smart enough to stay.

10: Morgan

If this was Big Brother and there were no edits, I would say that Morgan might be the one to go from Aparri this week. But she's been built up a lot, with her story consistently being referenced in the previews even if it has nothing to do with the episode. I think (and hope) Morgan can make it to the merge, where we can see her story pay off in a more satisfying manner.

11: Jeremiah

So that leaves us with Jeremiah, who isn't playing the social game, has already turned on Morgan and Alexis, and could be a big challenge threat after the merge. According to a Secret Scene, apparently Kass likes him, but I don't think that will stop his torch from being snuffed if Aparri goes to Tribal.

12: Woo

If Solana goes to Tribal Council, however, Woo is a prime target. Trish does hate Lindsey, but it would be much smarter to vote out such a huge immunity threat as Woo right before the merge. I hate to put you so far down, Woo, but you're out of friends.

13: Lindsey

She might quit, she might attack Trish and be removed from the game, or she might simply be voted out, but one way or another, I think Lindsey is leaving the game this week. And I'll say it again: good riddance.

I think Lindsey is leaving the game this week.

Check back tomorrow to see how things unfold on the fifth episode of what has been an amazing season so far. I'll be posting my recap of the episode tomorrow night, so stay tuned!

Mid-Week 4 Update for BBCAN2

Dare I say that this is the best episode so far? I know it's surprising that I'm saying that about a Sunday night edition, but this episode had it all: fallout, backstabbing, and the Houseguests getting drunk. (Image credit Slice)

In the wake of an attempted blindside against Heather, the girls were in some hot water. We got to see a pretty epic HOH competition that resulted in all the "strong" competitors messing up or dropping out, leaving a showdown between the enraged Rachelle and the desperate Sarah. 

This episode had it all.

In the end, Rachelle won (good for me because I'm Team Neda, of course) and Sarah cried. I did feel a bit bad for her; Sarah's a fascinating player and she's actually pretty savvy, plus she really wants that letter.

Then came a pretty hilarious task in replace of the Have/Have-not competition, which was a big improvement. Anything involving Jon drinking large quantities of alcohol and then attempting to feed Adel Slop is bound to be fun.

And the task was a success; Allison and Jon were able to pretend to be sober long enough for Big Brother to reward the Houseguests with yet more alcohol and a party.

Jon and Allison were able to pretend to be sober long enough for Big Brother
to reward the Houseguests with yet more alcohol and a party.

Rachelle's HOH, however, has not been quite as fun. She appears to be continuing the same terrible decisions that Ika made last week, while Ika has wisened up...a week too late! While Ika and Neda insisted on putting Allison/Kenny/Andrew on the block, Rachelle had ears for only her closest "ally" Sabrina, who's really poisoning her mind to protect the First Five.

I really have to hand it to Sabrina; she's got Rachelle so wrapped under her thumb that I half expected Neda and Ika to be put on Slop. And Sabrina even got Rachelle to considerbackdooring Ika! Ika, who's one of Rachelle's closest allies! Sabrina is an evil mastermind.

It looks like her manipulations will keep the First Five and Co. safe for another week, with Rachelle putting Heather and Allison on the block, with Allison ostensibly a pawn. What's ironic is that now it's actually sort of a good idea to put up Heather, because she hates the girls...but Heather's never going to win anything and some combination of Allison, Andrew, Kenny, or Jon was still the right way to go.

 

Some combination of Andrew, Allison, Kenny, or Jon was still the right way to go.

But it looks like it's Ika who's days might be numbered. Unless the brain-dead zombie Rachelle (controlled totally by Sabrina) wakes up and starts listening to Neda, the only voice of reason, the girls are totally screwed. This is really their last chance to fight the First Five. If Ika goes this week, then only Adel or Neda winning HOH can save that side of the house.

Sadly, I think Neda, Ika, and Rachelle are all finished (although Neda does have her side thing with Jon). Check back Wednesday to watch the beginning of the end for our/my protagonists as well as a return of the great Marsha the Moose! Tomorrow I've got Survivor rankings for episode 5, so stay tuned!

TAR Episode 5: Can't Make Fish Bite

At last, we're moving to a new country! Let's recap the Sri Lankan-based episode 5 of TAR All Stars, shall we? (Image credit CBS)

Let's recap the Sri Lankan-based
episode 5 of TAR All Stars.

The leg started off with a mad scramble for flights, something that had been sorely lacking so far on this season. From the speculation I've heard, pre-prepared flights, as well as lackluster challenges with Detour locations nearby each other, and multiple legs in one country, is The Amazing Race's way of cutting costs in it's lowest rated season ever, so it was nice to see more options available for once.

This resulted, of course, in the two teams in the back of the pack being without the choice flight from Kuala Lumpur to Colombo. Margie and Luke opted to take the safe route and wait it out on standby, while Brendon and Rachel chose a risky flight to Singapore with only a half hour connection.

I'm going to explain why this was the best possible choice they could have made. Let's play out the other scenarios. 

1) Brendon and Rachel get on standby with Margie and Luke.

This means they would end up on the early morning flight to Colombo hours behind the others, resulting in a harried race through Sri Lanka to not come in last. Although more exciting for us as viewers, Brenchel had no idea that Margie and Luke weren't on the earlier flight, so in their minds, this choice would be an almost automatic elimination. Even if they had done this, they still would have had a decent chance of being eliminated.

2) Brendon and Rachel take the Singapore flight and miss the connection.

After missing their connection, they likely have to take a flight even later than Margie and Luke's and end up being eliminated. However, as Brendon correctly stated, "We've got nothing to lose." They were at the back of the pack anyway, so this was a calculated risk vs. reward that ended up paying off.

Fortunately for the Brenchel fans (which I may now be slightly a part of), neither of the two above scenarios happened, and Brendon and Rachel completed their Speed Bump and remained in the race.

The problem with Brenchel's wise decision (or Margie and Luke's poor one) is that it effectively killed any drama about who was going to be eliminated, much like what happened on the third leg with Joey and Meghan; we knew who was going home, so all that was left was finding out who would come in first...it ended up being Dave and Connor, although I was rooting for Caroline and Jennifer to come out on top.

I have to say that although I like Dave and Connor, and they seem like super nice people, they're really not that interesting compared to some of the other teams out there. They're still my picks to win, but I'd be a lot happier with Jen and Caroline or Joey and Meghan.

This was a calculated risk vs, reward
that ended up paying off.

With little drama this leg, some entertainment in the form of tasks was needed...and it didn't materialize. We were faced with a choice between fishing (really, fishing?) and a difficult-looking dance that ended up being relatively easy and uneventful. And while making a shirt proved to be extremely difficult, it wasn't the sort of mind-blowing, crazily exciting task I was hoping for.

What we did get to see a lot of was character development. Brenchel once again proved their steady calmness, Caroline and Jennifer expounded upon their relationship with the cowboys, Leo had a chance to entertain the crowd, and Flight Time got to show off his basketball skills, which were very impressive.

They actually spent so much time on Flight Time and Big Easy at the Roadblock that I started worrying they might somehow be eliminated, but fortunately they survived. I'm starting to really like the Globetrotters and would not mind seeing them make it far in the race.

Flight Time got to show off
his basketball skills, which
were very impressive. 

Margie and Luke really had no chance for the entire leg, but they seemed to take it well. I won't say that I will miss them (finally one of the three-timers has been eliminated!) but I was a little sad and felt a little sorry to see them go.

Alright, next week, it looks like the teams are predictably staying in Sri Lanka, and Rachel will cause a traffic accident. Should be quite the story to explain to the police. Tomorrow I'll recap the Sunday night episode of BBCAN, which I need to go watch, so stay tuned! 

Big Brother Canada Week 3 Recap

Another week in the Big Brother Canada house has come and gone, and it's time to recap everything that went down since my Sunday night show post. (Image credit Slice)

We continued Ika's train wreck of an HOH.

We continued Ika's train wreck of an HOH on Wednesday and Thursday night, with Ika reaching a new low. "She's not a threat to me," Ika admits of Heather. At least she's aware of this fact...but Ika, if you know this, WHY are you voting her out!?!??! She just wants to toe the line and avoid the target, I suppose.

Don't get me wrong: I still lika Ika. I just think she's being blinded by her dislike of Heather and allowing that to interfere with her game. Sadly, with Ika & Co. playing disastrously, the First Five and their allies are sitting back and looking pretty. Kenny, Sarah, and Sabrina are all playing terrific games, with Sarah and Sabrina looking especially sneaky. They've integrated themselves into the Girls' Alliance so well that sometimes even I have to remind myself that they're actually with the First Five.

I can live with Adel getting
a secret power, since he
opposes the First Five.

I would be remiss if I didn't talk about the Buzzworthy competition, which actually turned out to be pretty hilarious. I thought Arlie's streaking and randomly running in and out of rooms naked was great and should have given him the win, but I can live with Adel getting a secret power, since he opposes the First Five.

And what is the power Adel is gifted? Why, it's a "POV Pick" card, so that you can choose to play for the Power of Veto once in the game when you're not chosen. This SUCKS! What a terrible power, right? I would say that if you're playing a good game, then over 50% of the time, you don't want to be playing for/winning the veto anyway, so you don't come off as a big threat. And if you've been nominated, then you're playing anyway. The only time the POV Pick card could be useful is if you think you're going to be backdoored, but if the HOH has any smarts, you won't know that ahead of time.

Adel does do a great job with what he has, though, and he and Ika come up with a plan to exaggerate his secret power. Adel leaks to Jon that his power will allow him to change the nominations, which really would be a great thing, so maybe that can keep Adel and Ika safe for another week or two.

I think Sabrina is the type of
person who gets what she wants.

We also have a budding showmance in the house between Allison and Andrew. Allison, I was happy for you to be entering the house. And you repay me with this?! I guess it could be said that Allison is playing a good game by getting Andrew to trust her, but we know that Sabrina is already suspicious, and I think Sabrina is the type of person who gets what she wants, so Allison may be in trouble later down the road. Still, she probably made the best decision for her game by aligning with the First Five, because Kenny and Andrew are much more obvious first targets than she is.

So now we have the Veto. I was hoping that Paul or Heather would win just so that Ika would be forced to put someone else (preferably Kenny or Andrew) up, but Ika clinched the win. Is it just me or is Big Brother Canada really dangerous this year, with Jon injuring his shoulder and then Heather hurting her knee? 

I have to say, Big Brother did a terrible job of explaining what was happening with Heather. The medic just said "We need to take you out of here," which I wasn't sure whether to interpret as Heather was being medivaced from the house for good or just taken away to be patched up. It turned out to be the later, although I was hoping for the former so that again, Ika would have to nominate someone else.

Heather and Paul remained on the block.

But in the end, Heather and Paul remained on the block. Sarah made a good move in trying to convince Ika to take out Paul so she didn't have to flip, but Neda was even better by pegging Sarah as someone to watch out for. That's right, Neda! Now that suspicions are developing with Sarah, could the First Five be exposed?
In my opinion, it wasn't worth having Sarah flip to get rid of Paul, because alienating and blindsiding Heather served the First Five's goals as well; Heather wasn't going to vote with them.

Ika took a huge risk in trying to take out Heather while just barely having what she thought was the majority, and it didn't pay off. In the end, to my disappointment, Sarah did vote out Paul, which is a shame, because he was a great character, albeit not so great at the game.

Ika and the girls need to do some
immediate damage control.

And now Ika and the girls are in huge trouble. They need to do some immediate damage control and somehow reassure Heather that it was the guys who tried to vote her out. I don't know how they'll be able to spin that one, because everyone knows that Andrew hated Paul, but Heather isn't exactly the smartest tool in the shed.

Ika's only hope is for Adel, Rachelle, or Neda (I hope it's not Neda for her own sake) to win the HOH this week, which is what I'm also fervently hoping for. An Adel HOH would be entertaining, and maybe he'd finally go after the big fish--Andrew and Kenny. We'll have to wait until Sunday to find out. 

In the meantime, though, let's update my opinions on the Houseguests. I'll tell you what I said about them last week as well as what I saw of them this week.

Adel

What I said: "I think he's put himself on the wrong side of the numbers by working with Paul. He's smart but not game-smart and probably won't last too much longer."

What I saw: Adel has definitely shown that he has some moves this week. He could still be in trouble due to his association with Ika, but I think that his secret power will keep him safe for now, and I'm definitely looking forward to seeing more of Adel.

Jon's with Kenny and Andrew
but also has Neda to keep
him safe on the other side.

Sabrina

What I said: "She's still been a non-entity on the show but she's stirring up a lot of trouble in the house, apparently telling lies and trying to sway people to her side."
What I saw: We saw a lot more of Sabrina's machinations this week, and I can see her being this season's Amanda...although she's a little more subtle at controlling the house. I don't like her. 
Jon 
What I said: "Jon has a strong secret alliance with Neda that could take him far, and he has a Newfoundlander connection with Kenny. He's good with both the girls and the guys, and hopefully will not be a target."
What I saw: We continue to see little of Jon on the show, but he's still as savvy and funny as ever, and I think he's got a lot of longevity, since he's with Kenny and Andrew but also has Neda to keep him safe on the other side.

Kenny's still a huge target.

Kenny 
What I said: "Kenny is not really playing an under-the-radar game any more. He might be trying to, but he's a big threat and if Ika is going after the First Five it could easily be Kenny and Andrew up on the block this week."

What I saw: Well, Ika didn't go after the First Five. But Kenny's still a huge target, and even though he's playing a great game, could go up on the block these week. I like Kenny a lot more than I like Andrew, and I think his gameplay could see him outlast his aggressive friend.

I'm not sure how
vengeful Heather will be.

Ika 
What I said: "If she's smart, she'll go after the First Five and make sure everyone else is on board so that they have her back."
What I saw: Sigh. Ika had a terrible HOH and let the First Five basically control her, and now she's going to pay for it. I think Ika's in trouble unless one of her allies wins Head of Household. Still an entertaining Houseguest, though.

Paul 
What I said: "The only thing Paul has going for him is that he's a non-threat and probably won't be targeted by anyone except Andrew."
What I saw: I continue to be proved wrong. Farewell, Paul, your antics will be missed!Andrew What I said: "His "people skills" are just as bad as his strategic skills, and his HOH was mostly controlled by Arlie and Kenny, who are making all the real decisions."
What I saw: Andrew's not the greatest player, but he's surrounded himself with people who are, and I think that unless Sabrina does something, his showmance with Allison could actually be very beneficial, because it garnered the First Five another number. That being said, I hope it's Andrew walking out the door next week. I agree with Paul: he's a jerk.

Sarah 
What I said: "We haven't really see her play the game, but I still think she's in a good position because she has a strong alliance and more obvious nominees in front of her."
What I saw: We saw Sarah have to make a tough decision between doing what was best for her game and what was best for the First Five, and I think she chose wrong. She's going to take the fall for flipping on Ika, and could be a target of the girls if they regain the power. Sarah is a cunning player, however, and I hope she sticks around.

Heather 
What I said:  "The jury is still out on Heather, although my guess she's a dummy and not a schemer." 
What I saw: Yeah...Heather's nice. But smart? Not so much. You have to be pretty dumb to not notice that all of your so-called allies are planning on voting you out, and you were only saved by the people who should be your enemies. I'm not sure how vengeful Heather will be, however, and some smart gameplay from Ika and Neda can get Heather back on their side, which they need.

Neda 

What I said: "Everyone seems to like Neda and no one was gunning for her, so I hope she can fade back into relative obscurity."
What I saw: It sounds odd, but I was glad to not see much of Neda this week; it only improves her chances. The little we did see was her pressuring Ika to make smart moves; Neda is in this for the long haul!

AllisonWhat I said: "She's going to have to work quickly to make bonds that the others have already had two weeks to establish. Hopefully she can work with Neda and not against her."
What I saw: Well, she definitely made those bonds, but not in the way that I expected. And now she is definitely working against Neda. I think Allison is all-in with the First Five now; there's no turning back. She seems like a good player, and should be able to outlast her boyfriend.

Arlie is quickly becoming one of
my favorite Houseguests.

Rachelle 

What I said: "We haven't seen Rachelle do anything remotely strategic, so I'm going to stay open-minded about her."

What I saw: Come on, Rachelle...do something! At least win the HOH for your alliance, please.

Arlie 
What I said: "Arlie is the brains behind the brawn and should probably go become an actor after that expertly thrown HOH competition last week."
What I saw: Arlie is quickly becoming one of my favorite Houseguests, and his crazy schemes and theater continued with him streaking the house. He and Neda also threw the Power of Veto, which was definitely the right way to go.

Ethan and I are both traveling over spring break, so we probably won't be getting any articles from him within the next few days. I do think that we should both be back in time for our Survivor scrutiny next week, and I'm relatively confident that I'll be able to stay up to date with both the shows and the website while I'm gone, so expect a TAR recap from me tomorrow night, and stay tuned!