Chaos is Great on Episode 10

Final 7 did not disappoint!

Another fantastic episode to add on to a great season. Final 7 did not disappoint! Let's start recapping. (Image credit CBS)

After Tribal, things are looking pretty bleak for Spencer and Tasha. Kass points out that she new Spencer had an idol because he was acting "less mean to her than usual." Always a good sign. She also notes that the most selfish kind of person is a college-aged man. Wow, Spencer is really coming off great tonight!

And now it's time for the auction, one of my favorite parts of a Survivor season! There's definitely a different vibe at this auction, however: while Kass, Trish, Woo, and Jefra gorge themselves on food, Spencer, Tasha, and Tony hold out for some sort of advantage in the game.

This is actually very impressive; it's rare that this many people are thinking of something other than their stomachs and want to get ahead in the game. In the Philippines, Abi was able to take the advantage in the challenge very easily because nobody seemed to care, and in Caramoan, Malcolm wasted $20 on peanuts and beer and still nobody challenged him for the advantage.

This auction was a bit lackluster overall.

After seeing an auction where smart players waited on their bidding, though, I've come to the conclusion that I like it better when people are competitive in their bids; this auction was a bit lackluster overall. The highlight, though, was Woo winning the ribs and sharing a "bro moment" with Probst while the editors played slightly sexual music. Very weird...I'm sure it'll lead to some great out-of-context inappropriate remarks of the week, which I'm looking forward to.

There were slightly different rules for the advantage this time around; people could bid up to $500 for the chance to draw rocks for the advantage; Spencer and Tony immediately did so. Tasha, on the other hand, chose to save her money in the hopes of an additional immunity challenge advantage. Seems smart, but from Jeff's words, it was clear that she was making a mistake, and Tasha left the auction empty-handed.

I'm sure the castaways could hear the sighs from production and Probst (along as my own) when Tony drew the black rock and got the advantage (an immunity idol clue). Sure, they all love Tony, and he was given 13 (13!!!!) confessionals this week, but they also want to maintain some tension and suspense in this game...all that this did was give Tony his 432nd idol of the season.

He definitely deserves some credit, though; while the rest of the alliance was gorging itself, Tony got the clue, dug for the idol, and did all the work around camp. The women held court in the water during this episode, and Tasha helped fuel Tony's paranoia about a women's alliance.

Finally it wasn't a balance challenge!

Both Tasha and Spencer played their parts expertly tonight, doing what they needed to do to get Tony to want to flip on Jefra. I'm not entirely sure (and can't remember) whether Tasha specifically said that she was integrating herself with Kass, Trish, and Jefra in an attempt to make Tony flip, but if she did, she handled things very well. And Spencer was instrumental as well, convincing Tony that the women would take him out next.

Another big story of Cagayan has to be Queen of Immunity Tasha, who continued her 3-week-run at individual immunity in a close challenge between her and Woo. Finally it wasn't a balance challenge!

And Tasha is like the new Monica Culpepper. Monica only won three challenges, so if Tasha can win one more, she'll beat her. And I think the record for women was set back in Borneo with Kelly Wigglesworth winning 4. Kim and Amanda (through two seasons) have also won 4 immunities. It isn't likely, but I would love to see Tasha break that record and go for 5.

Back at camp, Spencer's and Tasha's plan comes to fruition; Tony has been driven crazy enough that he agrees to blindside his alliance once again, and vote out Kass. He recruits Kass and Spencer gets Tasha, and they surprise the three women yet again.

Time for three burning questions.

1: Did Tony make the right decision?

The right move was to get rid of Spencer.

At first, I thought that there was some merit in blindsiding Jefra and breaking up a possible women's alliance. And it wasn't a completely terrible move, because now Trish and Kass have to include Woo and/or Tony in their Final 3 plans. But I think that the right move was undoubtedly to get rid of the biggest threat in Spencer. It's a testament to the gameplay of Spencer and Tasha (as well as the craziness of Tony) that they were able to get him to flip...again. And I have to say, I think I am now a cautious Spencer fan. I've started to like him better as the season goes on.

2: How many idols is too many?
I think at this point, we crossed the line. Obviously the producers hoped that Tasha or Spencer would get their hands on this new idol, but Spencer just played and wasted an idol last Tribal Council. And now Tony has 2! Just like Caramoan (and I am a bit of a hypocrite because I was rooting for Malcolm and very happy that he got the idols...although I still realized it was a bit excessive), Cagayan is saturated with idols.

Let's take a count. We had the three original idols hidden at each beach (although Garrett's was never played). After the merge, Spencer found an idol, and Tony's found 2. That puts our count at SIX hidden immunity idols in ONE season. By comparison, I believe Caramoan had five...the two originals, Reynold's second, Malcolm's second, and Andrea's ill-fated one. Heroes vs. Villains had at least five that I can think of off the top of my head, and Micronesia had maybe four or so. So Cagayan is currently our leader at six hidden immunity idols. That's just too many.

Three pairs of two now.

3: What's going to happen next week?
The way I see it, we have three pairs of two now: Spencer and Tasha, Trish and Kass, and Woo and Tony. It would not surprise me if we see a representative of each group in the Final Tribal Council. Predicting next week is going to be very difficult; ordinarily, I would say that Tony's going out next, but he can't! So...maybe Woo, then? If Trish, Kass, Spencer, and Tasha team up and split the votes to flush Tony's idol, we'll wind up with a 2-2-0 tie, and on the revote, Spencer (if that's who Tony and Woo vote for) and Woo cannot vote. Then Woo would be voted out.

BUT what if Tony doesn't play his normal idol? If he lets the tie continue unabated, it's 2-2-2, and Tasha, Kass, and Trish will all vote for Tony. Then Tony plays the OPHII...and then what happens? It's crazy stuff, and I have no idea what's going to happen next week.

I'm going to get my scrutiny with Ethan recorded as soon as I can, so expect it up by Saturday (hopefully sooner). In the meantime, there's Big Brother Canada coming your way on Friday, so stay tuned!

Power Rankings and Auction for Cagayan E10

Episode 10! Jeff can't believe it.

Episode 10! Can you believe it? We're heading into the final stretch of Cagayan, and down to the final 7 players. Time to continue the power rankings, auction results, and winner predictions. For the winner predictions, I'll be ranking the castaways based on who I think they can beat. For example, if I think someone can beat 2 of the castaways, then he/she is ranked 5th out of 7. (Image credit CBS)

Power Rankings

Last Week: I had Jeremiah at number 2. Ciera had him at six and Gordon Holmes at five...not looking so good for me.
Total Score: 68 points...Ciera has 75 and Gordon is at 81

This Week:

Five...in seven...equals in.

#1: Tony
Kind of an obvious ranking. Unless someone comes up with a crazy Erik-giving-up-immunity level of awesomeness plan this episode, Tony is guaranteed at least one more week. He's also at the top of the food chain right now, and can work with whoever he wants. Tony's made some big moves in this game, and so far they've paid off, so if he can make it to the end, I think he has a decent shot.
Chance to win: 3rd

#2: Woo
Woo's fate in this game has fluctuated with Tony's, and now that Tony is anchored down safely once again, Woo is too. Tony will likely decide which group loses a member this week (either by staying with his current alliance or flipping to Spencer and Tasha), and I can't imagine him making that decision without his trusty right-hand-man Woo...so Woo should end up on the right side of the numbers. The only situation in which I see Woo going home is the scenario I described on our podcast, where everyone unites against Tony and Woo, and split the vote 3-2-2. Tony plays the idol, and Woo goes home...but that's unlikely. Woo also has a fair chance in the finals if he's up against other non-strategic players.
Chance to win: 5th

#3: Trish

Trish is the one holding
it all together.

Trish has been a loyal, steadfast member of her alliance since the merge. She's the one holding it all together. This could set her up as a target, but Tony and Trish appear to be very close, and since I think Tony will decide who goes home, I don't think it will be Trish. If Tony does flip on his current alliance, he'll most likely want to target someone he likes less. Trish has been playing an impressive game from our standpoints, but I'm not sure how well she can communicate her gameplay to a jury.
Chance to win: 4th

#4: Kass
Chaos Kass has been laying low, and sadly (I had high hopes for Kass) has become the perfect vote to take to the end; no one likes her! This should at least keep her safe for the next week or so, and I think even if Spencer's plotting does get Tony to flip, Kass is more of a target for him than Trish but less than Jefra. But Jefra could win immunity, so you never know. And if Kass wants to have any hope of winning, she needs to get rid of someone like Tony and then own up to her mistakes in front of the jury...it's a long shot.
Chance to win: 7th

#5: Spencer

Spencer's edit is
still excellent.

I'm not sure whether the majority alliance would prefer to target Spencer or Tasha at this point. Tasha has won more immunities, but Spencer is the bigger strategic threat. Even though he's so low on the totem pole, Spencer's edit is still excellent, which leads me to believe that he won't be cut at Final 7. If he can appeal to Tony's paranoia, then he'll stay and regain the numbers, but if he fails, I think Tasha will take the fall. And if either he or Tasha make it to the end, I have no doubt that the jury will reward them. If they both make it together, Spencer's edit points to him taking the prize.
Chance to win: 1st

#6: Tasha
Tasha doesn't seem like she'll scramble quite as much as Spencer. She's playing a great under-the-radar social game, but that's all for naught when you're out of time and out of numbers. Spencer is a huge threat too, though, and his edit might have been misleading. Tasha also has a great chance to win immunity based on her past performances...again, I'm just ranking these two based on edits. But if Tasha survives to the Final Tribal Council, she's got a great underdog story to present to the jury and I think could beat anyone except possibly Spencer.
Chance to win: 2nd

#7: Jefra

If Jefra makes it to the end,
I see her getting 0 votes.

This might just be more wishful thinking on my part; I want the underdogs to stay in the game, and I want Tony to make a big move. Logically, they should get rid of Spencer or Tasha, but there's a lot of reasons for a Jefra boot when looking at emotional paranoia-freak Tony hiding in his Spy Shack. In the scenes from next episode, we see Spencer trying to convince Tony to vote "her" out, and I would have to assume that means Jefra. He wouldn't even be lying if he told Tony about the Final 4 deal; she made it and reneged on it, and even that could be enough for Tony to grab Woo and flip. If Jefra makes it to the end, I see her as joining the ranks of the Gervases, Sugars, and Beckys of the world--getting 0 votes, in other words. I do think she could beat Kass, though.
Chance to win: 6th

Auction Results

If you haven't been following along this whole time, Ethan and I did a podcast way back in February where we bid on all 18 players, and Ethan has had a much more successful experience. It's the first time since we merged that I didn't lose someone from my team, but it's still not looking good; Jeremiah became the 4th member of the jury, and Tasha won immunity.

The Solarrion Tribe prepares for its
very own Survivor auction.

Marcus:
Spencer Bledsoe
Trish Hegardy
LJ McKanas
Morgan McLeod
Sarah Lacina
Total Score: 8

Ethan:
Tasha Fox (+2)
Kass McQuillen
Jefra Bland
Tony Vlachos
Woo Hwang
Jeremiah Wood (+4)
Total Score: 10

Check back tomorrow night after the episode for my Survivor recap, and be sure to comment about my rankings; I'd love to hear from you. Stay tuned!

TAR E9: Accidental Alliance

I wish I had something witty or informative to say here, or some accidental alliteration (see what I did there?) to provide, but I'm just going to start recapping the ninth episode of a relatively disappointing season. (Image credit CBS)

I had high hopes for Switzerland.

At least we moved to a new location this week: Switzerland! I had high hopes as we trundled off to William Tell's monument, for two reasons.

1) The Cowboys missed the train and were now far behind...could they be eliminated?!

2) Could this be a rare, reclusive night leg?!?!?! 

I love it when we have legs and challenges that take place at night. And I mean fully at night. The half of a leg or so that we had in Kuala Lumpur earlier this season was close(ish), but the most recent season I can remember that featured a nighttime leg was in Season 22, in Berlin. The teams had to transport fluorescent letters, build a train set, go base jumping, and enter a crazy psychedelic maze. Sound familiar? Well, it was one of my favorite legs of the Amazing Race ever, and I thought for a fleeting moment that it was going to be repeated here.

Alas. Silly me.  My hopes were dashed in a few short words..."Wait for sunrise." Noooooooooo...should have expected it really.

Anyway, now that my complaining is over, let's talk about the episode for real. The teams had to find the oldest wooden bridge in Europe, which everybody except Brenchel (I'm just going to start referring to them as the Brenchels like everyone else does from now own) found pretty quickly. 

They then rushed off to Hotel Schweizerhof, where we were treated to a Route Info task that was probably the hardest of the leg: cleaning a trashed room. I do enjoy when they have these sort of attention to detail challenges, although I thought Caroline and Jennifer would excel at this task (due to their emphatic proclamation of "I love cleaning!"), and they didn't.

Usually I savor every Route Info task we get, because it means we get a Roadblock, a Detour, and a bunch of extra cool tasks. Twenty minutes into this episode, however, it became clear that we weren't going to get both a Roadblock and a Detour, for reasons unexplained (or at least, unknown to me). Possibly just another cost-cutting procedure.

Helga was one of the greatest taskmasters we've
seen so far this season.

Helga was one of the greatest taskmasters we've seen so far this season, and one of the best from recent memory, although no one can beat the great Pencils Down teacher from Russia in TAR 21. She certainly made things difficult for the racers, though. The Brenchels and Caroline and Jen were battling it out for 4th place from here on out.

Next we went to the Swiss Museum of Transport, where teams had to correctly identify an enormous drill bit, and I grew continually disgusted by the excessive hand-holding (particularly from Dave, who shouted out the answer to the Country Singers) and Brenchel-bashing that the "Accidental Alliance" was employing.

This is really a terrible name, just to be clear. Not only does it sound stupid, it also is entirely false; no alliance is accidental. 

But I digress. We then get a really cool (but too easy) challenge that allows the Amazing Race to advertise Ford like never before: a Ford Mustang museum search. The Cowboys quickly found the correct road signs and drove off (they should have been allowed to take a Mustang) 

My new least favorite team of the season
claimed the number one spot.

I believe the next place that the racers had to go is given the easily pronounceable settlement of Oberrickenbach, located in the municipality of Wolfenschiessen. Once there, the teams chose a dog and carried empty milk jugs up a cable car, filled them up at the top, and then had the dog transport them once they descended the cable car, which was a heavy lifting task that seemed unfairly designed against Caroline and Jennifer, and also practically identical to a challenge the teams had to perform in TAR 22.

After all the dust snow had settled, and the Cowboys and Afghanimals made a wrong turn, it was my new least favorite team of the season Dave and Connor who claimed the number one spot, as well as (you guessed it) two Ford Mustangs. Or maybe just one. They were never quite clear. Perhaps another way of cutting costs? I doubt it, but you never know with this season.

Caroline and Jennifer brought up the rear, but were mercifully saved by the third and final non-elimination leg. Get your heads in the game, Country Singers! I'm counting on you to win this race and bring TAR 24 to a satisfying conclusion!

I've been pulling for
these two all long.

I will conclude this recap with a brief list of my ideal picks to win.

#1: Caroline and Jennifer-I've been pulling for these two all along. I wasn't too thrilled to see them back, but they immediately became twice as likable as they were two seasons ago, and have used their wits, flirting, and intelligence to thrive in a season dominated by male-male teams.

They certainly deserve the
win after surviving 3 U-Turns.

#2: Leo and Jamal-I really like these guys by this point, but they're starting to change my perception of them once again. If they continue their Brenchel-bashing, I will not be very happy. Nevertheless, they're solid racers and certainly deserve the win after surviving 3 U-Turns, as they love to say.

Rachel has proved herself
a plucky, heroic underdog.

#3: Brenchel-If you told me before the season started that I would be ranking Brendon and Rachel before Dave and Connor in any list, I would have said that you were crazy. But Rachel has proven herself a plucky, heroic underdog, and Brendon...well, if they win, I'll prefer to not think about him. He still annoys me.

I've come to the conclusion
that these guys are actually
not so bad.

#4: Jet and Cord-I've come to the conclusion this episode that these guys are actually not so bad, and at least they're not taking part in the Accidental Alliance or the Brenchel-bashing. If they win, I guess I can be convinced to congratulate them appropriately. And again, they deserve it.

Dave and Connor have
gone from the heroes
to the villains.

#5: Dave and Connor-In the span of just two episodes, Dave and Connor have gone from the heroes to the villains, making personal attacks and (even worse, in my mind) making the race boring. Helping teams and being helped can obviously often be beneficial for teams on the race, but for us watching at home, it's boring. The best scenario would be for Dave and Connor to be eliminated next week.

We're down to the Final 5! Let's head off to Seville next week and make it an ending to remember. Check back tomorrow for my Survivor power rankings, and stay tuned!

Cagayan E9 Recap: "Sitting in My Spy Shack"

Listen in as Ethan and I discuss every facet of the superb ninth episode of Survivor: Cagayan. We talk about Spy Shacks, overpowered idols, what Jefra's letter said, as well as how Jeremiah, Spencer, and Tasha should have scrambled a little bit more. We also went over the endgame and probable winners; tune in to hear our critique of Trish's game and Kass's likability (hint: it's nonexistent). It's a jam-packed Survivor podcast you don't want to miss, and stay tuned for a Survivor feature article and an Amazing Race recap!

Instant Eviction and BBCAN Week 8 Recap

We've got a lot of stuff to cover.

We've got a lot of stuff to cover from Big Brother Canada this week, and I have to go record my podcast with Ethan very soon, so let's just jump right in! (Image credit Slice)

We have an Instant Eviction!!! Last season, I was very very very against the twist, as I thought that it went against the whole premise of the game. Bear in mind that I also had just started watching Big Brother at this time, and thought I had the whole game figured out, and then they threw this twist at us.

Of course, the Instant Eviction isn't fair. It gives a lot of power to the current HOH and her alliance, at the expense of one particular Houseguest, who isn't allowed to play for the Veto or even campaign. But I've come to the understanding and acknowledgement that Big Brother Canada is not Big Brother U.S., and these twists are a natural part of the game.

It didn't hurt that Neda was the one who was HOH, and that she used it expertly, blindsiding one of her biggest threats in Allison. I liked that Arisa assured Neda in the War Room that nothing she said was going to be heard by the other Houseguests, because we obviously had that issue with Topaz last season and Ika this season, and we want to be able to hear the Houseguests' unedited thoughts.

As I said, Neda's eviction of Allison was perfect, and she executed it exactly how she should have, giving all the details to her alliance during her nominations speech (which really shouldn't be allowed; it would be more interesting if the HOH was only allowed to give the nominations and say nothing else, so the other Houseguests wouldn't know who the target was) and sending her packing.

Au revoir, Allison...I have to say I'm glad to see you go. I was never as big of a fan as most of the online community was of Allison; they saw a lot of potential in her, but after the first week or two, I lost hope for Allison. So let me take this moment to say: I told you so!

Ok. Neda's second abbreviated HOH reign is over, and I was rooting for Jon to take power, because as Jemmett summarized so nicely this episode, "the more you win, the more you have to win." It's true; Jon and Neda are past the point of no return...gone are the times of throwing competitions and making yourselves look weak. Win, and win a lot!

Alas, Adel wins, which actually works out ok, because Adel has apparently decided to throw the entire game of Big Brother Canada from here on out. First he nominates the Gremlins because he hates Sabrina and Jon/Neda have done an excellent job of pitting Adel against them, and then he bashes them during nominations.

Adel explains his strategy: make the jurors hate him so that the other Houseguests will want to take him to the end, and then use his superior debating skills to overcome the jurors' bitterness and win the game.

Neda could outplay either of these
boneheads any day.

A couple key words there. Make the jurors hate him. Do NOT do this EVER! I don't care how much of a goat you want to appear to be...don't piss off the jurors! Sabrina will never in a million years vote for Adel to win, no matter what he might say on finale night, and I can't imagine Rachelle will either.

Let's talk about Emmett and Jillian. I could tolerate Jillian in season 1, and I liked Emmett enough. Now, seeing them in the War Room with Neda is laughable. These boneheads are trying to give Neda strategy, when she could outplay either of them any day. Neda knows more about Big Brother than either of them will ever know.

Yes, Emmett was a good player. No, Jillian was not, and no, Emmett was not a great player. Their entire strategy consisted of winning competitions. I laughed when Jillian immediately confirmed this for me when the first question she asked Neda was "How many competitions has Jon won?" They're so one-dimensional.

The only good advice Jemmett gives Neda is to be kind and try to sway people in her goodbye messages, which is intuitive and probably something she would have figured out on her own anyway.

So the nominations remain the same, and Rachelle is evicted, which was absolutely the right move for Jon and Neda; keep Sabrina and Adel around so that they'll target each other. Plus, Sabrina most likely won't win anything.

Neda's in a great spot right now.

That's it for the episode this week; I want to spend the rest of the time talking about Neda's game from now until the end, and what she needs to to do win.

Neda is in a great spot right now. Let's run through the scenarios.

#1: If Sabrina wins HOH, she'll target Adel, and since Neda has remained on relatively good terms with Sabrina and saved her over Rachelle this week, could probably sway her to nominate Heather as well (assuming she doesn't want to get rid of Jon yet). If Adel somehow wins Veto, Jon goes up on the block, and Neda and Adel can decide whether to send Jon or Heather home.

#2: If Adel wins HOH, he'll target Sabrina, and probably put Jon or Neda up. This could be potentially Wait a second, Adel is the outgoing HOH. Perfect!

#2: If Heather wins HOH, Neda and Jon have a Final 3 deal with her, so Sabrina and Adel will go up for sure. The right move is to get rid of Adel at this stage. If either one wins Veto, Heather and Neda have a Final 2, so Jon will go up as a replacement and again, Neda can decide who goes home.

#3: If Jon wins HOH, he's safe from Neda, and Sabrina and Adel will probably go up (see above).

#4: If Neda wins HOH, she can choose her targets herself, and should probably put up Sabrina and Adel (see above). This is actually probably the worst case scenario, because then Neda can't play in the Final 4 HOH, whereas if she wins next week, she can play the week afterwards as well.

Let's assume that Adel is sent home this week (the best case scenario). He probably feels shocked and betrayed by his alliance, and mad that Sabrina is still in the House.

Next week, Heather, Neda, or Jon wins (yeah, sorry Sabrina). Neda has to decide at this point who she wants to go to the end with. She's said that Heather is the best bet, which I think I agree with. Jon needs to go, and I would pick this point to get him out, so he can't play in the Final HOH.

Neda wants to keep him around until Final 3, so that he'll take her if he wins, but Jon could be a threat to sit next to at the end. I think the best plan is to blindside Jon at F4 and bring Heather and Sabrina to the finale.

This ensures that Neda has a very good chance of winning the endurance challenge and the Final HOH. Sabrina probably won't win, and if Heather wins, well, Neda has a Final 2 deal. If Neda wins, I think she should honor her pact with Heather, because Sabrina has Allison and Rachelle on the jury.

So let's say that Neda and Heather face the jury. How do the votes fall?

Showed in the jury house segment this
week that he respects strong gameplay.

Arlie--mad at both Heather and Neda for taking him out, but showed in the jury house segment this week that he respects strong gameplay--votes for Neda
Allison--probably Neda's biggest enemy in the House, was blindsided by Neda--votes for Heather
Rachelle--Heather said tonight that they have a poor relationship, and between the two, Neda's probably been nicer to her--votes for Neda
Adel--mad at Neda for getting rid of him (probably Heather too), but has stronger ties with Heather--votes for Heather
Jon--Neda backstabbed her closest friend in this game, and Jon's going to be upset, but I think he wants Neda to win if it isn't him--votes for Neda
Sabrina--understands Neda's decision to get rid of her at F3 and has no real reason to vote for Heather--votes for Neda
Canada--Neda's more prominent on-screen and in the absence of a popular, charismatic guy like Adel or Jon, picks their "second best option"--votes for Neda.

And that, ladies and gentlemen, is the very abridged, written-late-at-night version of how Neda wins the game. It's nearly midnight PST and I have to go have a conversation about Survivor with Ethan, which I will hopefully have posted sometime tomorrow, so stay tuned!

There's No "Y" In Fighting on Episode 9

We just witnessed another fantastic episode.

...but there is an "I" in it, and at Final 8, everyone is fighting hard to win their own individual, "I" games. I don't know. That was the best analogy I could make there.

But anyway, we just witnessed another fantastic episode; let's break it all down. (Image credit CBS)

I think this might have been my favorite episode since the merge one. We had everything, from two close challenges, an emotional moment, idol paranoia...even some inappropriate comments from Jeff!

One of the really important parts of this episode was...you guessed it! Tony's Spy Shack 2.0!!! And this time, it actually works! Tony gets himself within "5 feet" of the well, and is able to overhear Jefra's and Trish's conversation.

And what he heard should encourage him, because although Jefra is concerned about the blindside last night, Trish is loyal to a fault and still firmly trusts Tony. Tony for his part says he trusts Trish, Woo, and Kass, which says a lot about the way Kass has assimilated herself into that group.

This was an exciting reward; for once, the teams weren't stacked and nobody really pulled ahead...it all came down to the puzzle. And I always love it when they make a "classic" Survivor phrase one of Jeff's sayings, like "You Have to Dig Deep" from last season.

And the reward is indeed "Worth Playing For," as Jefra and the Outsiders Alliance are taken to the Callao Caves, one of the coolest reward locations we've seen for many a season. This certainly beats early screenings of Jack and Jill.

Jefra breaks down crying as soon as the letters from home are passed out. And as though Jefra's mother predicted the game, she tells Jefra not to be afraid to lie or betray people to get ahead. With that, Jefra makes a Final Four alliance with Tasha, Jeremiah, and Spencer, which I really thought was sincere (it probably was at the time) and based around her distrust of Tony.

Tony wants to talk strategy, but all
Trish wants to do is look for papayas
that look like Morgan's boobs.

Back at camp, Tony wants to talk strategy, but all Trish wants to do is look for papayas that look like Morgan's boobs (quote of the night!). Woo falls out of the tree, but is relatively unharmed and life continues as normal...no medivac.

The one thing I would like to complain about with this episode is lack of challenge diversity. Yes, the reward challenges have been great, and we've seen a lot of new challenges, but 3 out of the 4 immunities have been about balancing, and the fourth was a Simon Says.

Let's see the ring toss challenge from Caramoan, or the maze challenge that pops up a lot. How about the challenge where you have to memorize a set of numbers and then race back? I want some intense physical competitions, and while the ball on a pole immunity certainly gave Probst his chance to do what he does best (make out-of-context inappropriate remarks), it just wasn't that interesting.

But good job Tasha for winning that. She's definitely growing on me, as is Spencer. The slimmer his chances seem to get at winning, the more I like him.

Jefra flip flops right back
 to her old alliance.

After the challenge, Jefra flip flops right back to her old alliance. She's easily swayed and very impressionable, as Jeff points out at Tribal, but this really wasn't a great move. It made her alliance of 5 think of her as more liable to flip, and the other three are now mad at her for no reason.

The big news of the evening, though, is Tony's find of the OPHII. As much as I hate the concept and am disappointed at its entrance into the game, I have to say that the sequence of Tony finding it was very good, and it was sufficiently well-hidden.

Heading into Tribal Council, I have no idea who's going home (as usual). If Spencer plays his idol right, Woo could get the boot, but if he doesn't, it looks like Jeremiah's going out, which is of course what happens. As much as I love Woo (and won't mourn the loss of Jeremiah), it looks like Spencer and Tasha are in trouble. We'll have to see what they can do next episode to work things out.

Time for three burning questions!

1: Tony...what? Who's Jeremy?
Tony made this weird move at Tribal Council, right as Spencer was going to play his idol, that I had to go back and re-watch. I guess this is what happened: Spencer pulled out his idol, and Tony wanted to ensure that he didn't play it for Jeremiah. So, Tony pulled out his own idol (still wrapped up) and pretends that he's worried and that he might play the idol if Spencer plays his, tricking Spencer into thinking that playing the idol on himself is the right move. A very smart play if it worked, but I'm not sure if Tony's shenanigans had any bearing on Spencer's play.

And of course, in true Tony fashion, he called Jeremiah "Jeremy" in the heat of the moment, and when it's time to put the idol away, insists loudly that it was "a fake idol" the whole time.

2: How will the OPHII change the game?
At first I was worried that Spencer's group had Jefra and were going to vote out Tony, so I thought "Great. Tony will play the idol tonight, save himself, and the game will precede as normal." But then that didn't happen, and it looks like Tony is in a super safe spot going forward. Although Yul let everyone know that he had an idol, and used it as a deterrent, I think Tony should keep his secret and use it only as a last resort to blindside everyone after the vote. Now that we're down to such low numbers, the threat of the idol will just put a bigger target on Tony's back, and make everyone want to vote him out...oh wait, they can't. Sight.

Tony is playing a fantastic game.

The problem is, Tony is playing a fantastic game (or at least making good TV), and I would have been only too happy to see him be rewarded with the million dollar prize. But now, he has a safeguard and can use it to force his way through the next two votes when he maybe should have been taken out. The best case scenario? Tony keeps it secret through the next two weeks and doesn't become a target anyway, so it doesn't affect the game. After F5 (or is it at Final 5?), it's null and void, so he'll have to rely on his own wits again.

3: Who can win...or even get to the end?
With Jeremiah's oust, it looks like Spencer and Tasha, now idol-less, are really in trouble. But the previews for next week would suggest that Spencer's going to try to play on Tony's paranoia and get him to vote out Jefra. This would seem to be the best logical move, because I think Trish is keeping the alliance together, so luring Jefra or Kass again would most likely fail.

If Tony and Woo jump ship, it's anyone's game once again, but I'm not too confident of that. Right now, Tony has the best chance to get to the end, just because of the idol. I think Kass is also fairly likely, because no one's targeting her. And if Spencer and Tasha can ride it out with Tony and Woo, and then blindside them at Final 5, either one of them could win.

Alright, that's it for tonight's recap. Tomorrow I will hopefully record my audio scrutiny with Ethan. Our weekend's aren't quite so busy this week, so I should have it to you by Saturday morning at the absolute latest. Stay tuned!

Power Rankings and Auction for E9

Time to predict another unpredictable week.

It's time to predict another unpredictable week of Survivor: Cagayan. If we arrive at an exciting ending, I think we can rank Cagayan up there with some of the best seasons of all time. Bearing in mind that I haven't watched every season (and plan on watching more over the off-season), my top three at the moment probably has to be Micronesia, Amazon, and HvV or China...but that could be challenged; we'll see.

Anyway, let's get into this. (Image credit CBS)

Power Rankings

Last Week: I put LJ in spot five, while Ciera had him at 7 and Gordon Holmes at 2.
Total Score: I now have 66 points.

This Week:

1: Spencer
The closer and closer we get to the end, the shinier and shinier Spencer's flawless edit is looking, and the more and more worried I get that this season is going to have a predictable winner. Couple that with the fact that Spencer still has an idol and (at least according to last week's votes) is back in the majority spot, and I think we can assure Spencer's safety for this week...sadly.
Chance to win: 1st/8

Jeremiah is a lesser threat
than Spencer or Tasha.

2: Jeremiah
I think that at this point, the other castaways have firmly identified Jeremiah as a lesser threat than Spencer or Tasha, and he's been pushed into obscurity. Spencer's right hand man is also safe this week, but be alarmed if we start to see a plethora of confessionals from him.
Chance to win: 8th

3: Kass
It's hard to envision a scenario in which Kass goes home next; the only plausible scenario I can come up with is if she has an extremely volatile reaction to being blindsided by Tony, which is not out of the question. Even though she, Trish, and Jefra are down in the numbers, alliances seem to be more fluid this season, and as Tony said earlier, alliances are built on trust, not numbers.
Chance to win: 6th

It's unlikely that the Ninja
will go home.

4: Woo
Anyone seeking to target Woo will try to go after Tony first, so it's unlikely that the Ninja will go home. But hey, Tony could win immunity, or he could find the OPHII. You never know.
Chance to win: 5th

5: Tasha
Even though we've seen very little from her, the other players have clearly marked out Tasha as a big threat to win the game, and this would seem to be very true considering the current jurors. With Spencer possessing the idol, I think that Tasha is the most likely candidate from her alliance to get the boot this week if Tony can somehow revive his alliance, a prospect that I find unlikely.
Chance to win: 2nd

Tony has a strong
relationship with Trish.

6: Trish
Trish is the figurehead of a dying alliance, so why isn't she at number 8? Well, first of all, I think that Tony has too strong of a relationship with Trish to want to send her home. They've been together since Day 1 as outsiders on the Aparri beach. And Trish will hopefully have enough sense to get over the blindside and continue to try working with Tony. Even if she fails, she can always talk to Spencer in the hopes of sending her longtime ally home.
Chance to win: 3rd

7: Jefra
Jefra's as big of a threat as Jeremiah is (the remaining Beauties are really boring, huh?), but she's on the outs. To make matters worse, she doesn't have as close of a connection with Tony or Woo as Trish does. Plus, she didn't meet or play with Tasha or Spencer before the swap, and it's clear that Jeremiah has forsaken his old tribal alliances, so Jefra has nowhere else to turn. Her closest ally was LJ, and now that he's gone, she's a sitting duck.

He's played hard and
he's played to win.

8: Tony
Tony may try to get rid of Jefra, he may try to vote out Trish...he might even target Spencer or Kass. But at the end of the episode, when all the dust's settled, I think it will be Tony himself who finds his torch snuffed. He's played hard and he's played to win, but big, flashy moves just aren't going to cut it this time. We already know that Spencer doesn't trust him, and now he's alienated his former alliance as well. If neither Spencer or Trish want to work with him (and they could actively target him), Woo and Tony will find themselves gone very fast.
Chance to win: 4th

Auction Results

Things are going from bad to worse for my team in this competition. Ethan hasn't lost a single player since the merge, while I'm down to two: Spencer and Trish. And Tasha won immunity last episode as well. Let's hope for a Trish immunity run and a Spencer/Trish final two, shall we?

Things are going from bad to worse.

Marcus:
Spencer Bledsoe
Trish Hegardy
LJ McKanas (+3)
Morgan McLeod
Sarah Lacina
Total Score: 8

Ethan:
Tasha Fox (+2)
Kass McQuillen
Jeremiah Wood
Jefra Bland
Tony Vlachos
Woo Hwang
Total Score: 4

I have a feeling it'll be a great episode. My prediction: Spencer, Trish, and Tony are the main players, with Kass as the coveted swing vote and the rest as loyal votes. Check back tomorrow night to see who comes out on top, and stay tuned for my episode recap!

TAR Episode 8: Donkeylicious

Finally we have some drama injected
into this stagnant race!

Well, this last episode was certainly a change from the long, drawn-out march to the finish line through a handful of countries that we've seen throughout TAR All Stars, wasn't it?

Finally we have some drama injected into this stagnant race! While this spring's iterations of Survivor and Big Brother have been stellar, Amazing Race All Stars has been a let down; I much preferred TAR 23.

But enough disappointing thoughts. Onto the (relative) excitement of this episode. (Image credit CBS)

Teams race quickly made their way to the town of Civita di Bagnoregio, where they faced some devilish donkeys, as well as a Double U-Turn. Since we really didn't have much going on besides the U-Turn this leg, I'm going to knock out the other stuff real quick and then spend the majority of this post talking about the U-Turn fallout.

The Detour forced teams to choose between riding donkeys or assembling a wooden donkey, with the added trick (not really that tricky) of utilizing the box holding the pieces of wood as one of the pieces. From the episode, as well as Flight Time's and Big Easy's exit interview on Rob Has a Website, it seems clear that riding the donkeys around the track was by far the easier option.

Poor Big Easy. From coming out of taxis as small as birth canals to not being able to rappel down a waterfall and now having difficulty riding a donkey, this race has been tough on him. And tough on a lot of teams, apparently; Leo and Jamal and Flight Time/Big Easy both switched Detours (in FT/BE's case, they switched twice), which should really only be a last resort.

And finally we had a Roadblock that I was satisfied with, for once. No, it wasn't as potentially mentally challenging as last week's (which ended up being a dud), but at least it wasn't something to do with heights or assembly.

The illumination Roadblock just visually looked cool, had a terrific location--the monks wearing the cowboys' hats was hilarious--and was sufficiently difficult, so congratulations to the Race producers for finally getting something right this season. Best Roadblock so far.

Ok, now let's talk about what you're really here for. U-Turn-gate. Brenchelgate...no, that was something else. Davegate. Whatever you want to call it, it was an explosive night for Dave.

He did not take well to being U-Turned by Brenchel, and I'll just throw my (popular) opinion out there: stop being so self-righteous, suck it up, and keep going; you're on a race! Dave kept complaining about how he was a 60-year-old man and that people shouldn't be U-Turning him, but he's 1/2 of an extremely strong team this season; what do you expect?

Stop being so self-righteous...
you're on a race!

I think part of Dave's problem was that he was trying to be extremely (exceedingly, perhaps) nice to the other racers...essentially, losing the "race" part of The Amazing Race. It's clear that both Leo and Jamal and Caroline and Jennifer have established strong friendships and race alliances with Dave and Connor, who were perturbed last week when Rachel wouldn't point them to the clue box.

They extend their hands of friendship to other racers, and so they expect those racers to be nice to them, but again, it's a race! I think I'm now actively rooting against Dave and Connor--which is tough because I like Connor--and with the elimination of Flight Time and Big Easy, have only a few horses (donkeys?) left in this race.

So we've covered the emotional response to the decision. But was the move itself a good one to make? I would have to say no.

Brendon and Rachel (mostly Brendon) had unusual motives for using the U-Turn on Dave and Connor. Most teams try to systematically eliminate someone else from the competitive, but here it appeared that Brendon was solely focused on winning the leg and the prize money that came with it.

Brendon was solely focused on winning
the leg and the prize money.

He knew full well that Dave and Connor weren't going anywhere, U-Turn or no U-Turn, but acknowledged that he just wanted to buy himself and Rachel a little time to get 1st place.

I'm not sure whether this could actually come back to bite Brenchel or not; even though Dave is obviously furious, this isn't Survivor, and Dave doesn't get a jury vote at the end. It's more than possible that we won't see another U-Turn this season, so Dave and Connor may not have a chance to repay Brenchel in kind. Of course, they won't be helping out Brenchel after this point, but I'm not sure what they can do to stop them or hinder their progress, so this may not have been a terrible move after all.

It would have been smarter, however, for Brenchel to target Leo and Jamal or the Globetrotters; the ideal way to use a U-Turn is to knock out the strongest team from the competition. And although we did see Dave and Connor U-Turn the Afghanimals, it wasn't in a vindictive attempt to eliminate them; the two teams actually worked together on the Detour!

I will be very disappointed if we don't get
a Country Singers victory.

I think this just about sums up this week's episode...anything else? Cowboys used their Express Pass...Globetrotters made some errors with the Detour...Caroline and Jen get lost...whoop-de-do.

We're down to the Final Five, and I will be very disappointed if we don't get a Country Singers victory. I could live with the Afghanimals winning or...dare I say it...Brenchel. Well, Rachel at least. I still dislike Brendon but Rachel is certainly winning me over.

Alright, we're off to Switzerland next week, so stay tuned!

Recapping the Crazy 7th Week of BBCAN2

What a week for the Houseguests.

What a week for the Houseguests, right? I didn't make a Sunday night episode update, but that's just as well, because all of the real excitement happened on the Wednesday and Thursday shows. I'm going to recap how it all went down, but I'm going to set the situation up really quickly and spend most of the time on the decisions that were made and the Houseguests' futures. (Image credit Slice)

So it would seem that after the Double Eviction killed the First Five, Rachelle and Sabrina would be on the outs (by the way, the Gremlins, as they call themselves, is far superior to the Sloppy Seconds, which is of course, obliterated), and so they were...for a time.

Jon put Rachelle and Sabrina on the block, and for all of their whining and complaining, that really was the smart move to make if you want to backdoor someone; Sabrina even said "You can nominate us initially if you want" during the episode.

So then we have a situation that is developing on Wednesday. And if I may make a Game of Thrones analogy, it would seem that Jon, being the HOH, is the King of Westerhouse at the moment. He sits atop the Iron Throne, and is the Joffrey/Cersei/Tywin/Robert for our analogy. Joffrey is actually a bad example, because he's not making the decisions.

And then there are two competing Houseguests--we'll call them Varys and Littlefinger--vying for his attention. Only Varys is much more attractive and Iranian, and Littlefinger is very loud and enjoys running around the House naked. And in this power struggle, where each person is whispering in King Jon Pardy's ear, Varys gained the upper hand.

There are two Houseguests competing for
vying for King Jon's attention.

Moving away from Game of Thrones...Neda gained the upper hand. Which, I have to say, I was a little worried about because although Jon and Neda seem to be extremely close, Jon seemed committed to his "Goof Troop" alliance to the end with Arlie. But Neda prevailed and the plan to backdoor Arlie was hatched.

Naturally, Jon and Neda approach the Gremlins and of course receive their votes to get rid of Arlie; anything to get Sabrina and Rachelle off the block, right? And then they go and talk to Allison.

Here it is worthy of mention that Adel played his special power earlier, allowing him to pull Allison out of the Veto competition and be able to compete in it himself (for no reason other than just to use it), so Allison is not very happy right now. She feels like she's in the bottom of the alliance and no one gives her any information, which really is the fault of the others for not making her feel included, just like with Kass on Survivor.

But anyway, Allison pretends to agree with their backdoor plan, and so Jon goes ahead with a risky but potentially rewarding move. He blindsides Arlie and removes Rachelle from the block.

And here's where things really start to get crazy. Allison pulls the Secret Veto out (which she obtained the week before, if you haven't been following along) and plays it not on Arlie, but on Sabrina, forcing Jon to nominated Adel for eviction.

A couple of things here.

A) Allison, if you were thinking about messing with Jon's plan, why not save Arlie and make it Sabrina vs. Adel?!?!?!? Yes, Sabrina might have gone home, but Arlie is totally safe and ready for revenge.

B) WHY DID YOU PLAY THE VETO?!?! Allison felt like she was powerless in the game and wanted to "make a big move." This was her last chance to play the Secret Veto before it expired, and it was obviously burning a hole in her pocket. But the correct move would have been to not use the Veto, let it expire, and continue along in the game without people perceiving you as an enemy of the alliance and a threat.

Jon and Neda's only ally left at
that point will be Heather.

But ok. You've played the Veto, and are committed to getting out Adel, one of Jon's closest allies, and have saved Sabrina. Allison now has the Gremlins on her side, and she can save Arlie, who will go after Jon and Neda, who's only ally left at that point will be Heather. Great. You're in a great spot, Allison.

So did Arlie win that HOH? Did he get his chance to nominate Jon and Neda?

NO!! BECAUSE YOU FLIPPED BACK TO JON AND NEDA AND EVICTED ARLIE!!!!

This is really the worst part. I understand that Allison wanted to make a move, and it could have been really successful, but then she reneges on her own plan and gets rid of Arlie! So all that she accomplished is pissing off her former alliance and putting herself in no-man's-land.

Let me make things clear: I am ecstatic that Arlie went home. I am jubilant. Not because I disliked Arlie; I thought he was awesome, in fact. But my true allegiance lies with Neda, and by proxy, Jon, so I was happy that their ally Adel stayed this week...and that HOH challenge that came down to Allison and Neda was the most suspenseful this season; I was very happy that Neda won it.

Anyway, now that we're beginning the jury stage of the game are are down to only 7 players, I'm going to stop doing my updated thoughts on players week-by-week and instead focus on their chances for winning. What do they need to do to get to the end, to win, and who can they beat? Let's get started.

This week, I'm going to talk about the three players that are representative of the groups in the House. The other players are mentioned consistently in here as well. (Groups are Adel and Heather, Jon and Neda, Gremlins)

Adel

Adel is very well-liked

Short Term: Adel really got lucky this week that Allison and the Gremlins made a terrible decision. But now that he's moved past the crisis point, he's secure in a Neda HOH. And I think that if the other side of the House (I'm assuming the House is now Adel/Heather/Neda/Jon vs. Allison/Rachelle/Sabrina) wins power down the road, they're going after Neda and Jon, so Arlie is safe, barring a backdooring.

Long Term: Adel, as we saw from Arlie, is very well-liked. I think he can beat any of the three Gremlins, so his best bet would be to break up Rachelle and Sabrina this week and then try to win HOH. Then he can turn on his current alliance. Not great for getting jury votes, I know, but there's no way he can beat Neda or Jon, and it's a toss-up between him and Heather. Going to the end with one of the Gremlins is his only option, and he needs to make a move sooner rather than later, before Neda and Jon become the Emmett and Jillian of this season (are they already?).


Sabrina
Short Term: Basically, Sabrina has to ensure that Neda believes that Rachelle and Allison are much bigger threats than she is (which is true). Sabrina's not going to win HOH, so Rachelle is really the greater danger of the two of them. If she can survive this week and have at least one ally left, and then manage to take control, she has to break up Neda and Jon.

Long Term: I can see Sabrina beating Rachelle at the end, and maybe Allison, so Sabrina neesd to fight hard to keep her allies in the House; she can't join the other alliance. Once/if she takes control, Sabrina just has to tough it out until the end, winning HOHs and POVs (ha, yeah right) and hoping the other side self-destructs, and maybe initiating that self-destruction.

Jon is extremely lucky that Neda won HOH.

Jon
Short Term: Jon is extremely lucky that Neda won the HOH that he couldn't play in. He's safe for another week, which might become a rare thing now that the biggest physical threat besides himself is gone from the House. Jon should probably try to target Rachelle, because she could beat him at an endurance comp. Allison too, for that matter.

Long Term: Jon is in a prickly spot right now. He's viewed as a huge threat by all, and the Gremlins would probably choose him as their first target, so it seems like he should stick with his alliance. The only problem is, taking Neda to the final 2 with him is a surefire way to lose the game. That's right, at this moment I am officially calling it; the game is Neda's to lose! She's playing terrifically, and Jon is really just following her lead. So this will be tricky for him. He needs to get rid of at least 2 of the Gremlins, but then has to flip on Neda before it's too late, and take someone like Heather or Sabrina to the Final 2.

This is actually turning out to be a very good season, and I'm cautiously optimistic for Neda's chances. Tomorrow we'll have a recap of The Amazing Race, so stay tuned!

Cagayan Episode 8 Recap "Bag of Tricks"

I think you'll be pleased with this week's scrutiny. We had a lot more time to talk, so Ethan and I went in-depth on the episode, Tony's big move, updating the auction, talking about who could win, returning players, and more. We also talked a bit about Big Brother Canada and The Amazing Race at the end, so enjoy! There'll be a Big Brother Canada recap coming tonight, so stay tuned, and comment if you listened to the audio and have something to say; we'd love to hear from you.