Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Cagayan E8 Power Rankings And Auction Results

Spencer, Tony and Jeremiah in Season 28 Episode 8
I'll start giving some speculation on chances to win as well.
Can you believe we're already at episode 8? Survivor: Cagayan is more than halfway over, and it's time to rank the players for this week. I'll also update you on the auction/draft results between myself and Ethan.

And now that we're starting to get into the mid-merge stage of the game, I'll start giving some speculation on chances to win as well. But these rankings will remain in order of least to most likely to go out this week. (Image credit CBS)

Power Rankings

Last Week: I had Morgan at number 7, Ciera had her at 5, and Gordon Holmes put her at 9.
Total Score: 61 points

This Week:

Jefra, Kass and Tasha in Season 28 Episode 8
Jefra is safe cruising along.
1: Jefra
Still in spot number one just like last week. After a slight scare at the merge, Jefra is safe cruising along as the least likely target of the majority alliance. She's going to have to make some sort of move soon if she wants a chance to win the game, but at least she can get to the end as a goat.
Chance to win: 9th best in the game

2: Trish
Maybe a little more emotional, a little bigger of a target than Jefra...but Trish is still not anyone's first choice to be voted off, no matter whether her alliance crumbles or not. Trish was getting a fantastic edit for a couple of weeks, but if we don't hear from her for one more week at all like last episode, she doesn't have a chance.
Chance to win: 7th

Jeremiah and Kass in Season 28 Episode 8
Kass is actually in a decent
position until Spencer's
group takes control.
3: Kass
Kass has really caused some waves these past few weeks, but I think Spencer needs her too much to get rid of her, and according to the previews, Tony has bigger fish to fry. Despite her flipping and swing vote status, Kass is actually in a decent position until Spencer's group takes control (if that happens). If she makes it to FTC, however, it'll be a different story.
Chance to win: 4th

4: Spencer
Spencer's a smart guy, and having an idol at this relatively late stage of the game when nobody else does can be critical. I don't think he'd waste it on someone who's not a target or be blindsided with it, so that idol is at least a guaranteed one week immunity. We'll see if he's actually able to pull his alliance back into the majority.
Chance to win: 1st

LJ in Season 28 Episode 8
Do you really want to go up
against LJ in the final
immunity challenge?
5: LJ
It seems like LJ should be targeted; he was hiding an immunity idol from his fellow tribemates, lasted late into the immunity challenge last week, and used his master puzzle skills to win reward. Do you really want to go up against LJ in the final immunity challenge? But no one's coming after him, and I think he's safe for another week. Again, whether he can win the game if he's not perceived as a threat at all is a totally different matter.
Chance to win: 5th

6: Jeremiah
We thought that people would be gunning for Jeremiah after the merge, and were speculating about his physical prowess. But really, he hasn't competed spectacularly, and has done as little as Morgan in terms of strategy, so I think he'll be ignored while there are more tempting targets for Tony's alliance like Spencer and Tasha. No one has said that Jeremiah doesn't do anything around camp, but there's a general perception that he's about as bright as a boulder.
Chance to win: 8th
Fist pound in Season 28 Episode 8
I'd bet on not seeing Woo's
torch snuffed this week.

7: Woo
It looks like Woo's athleticism and likableness may finally make him a target this week, but he's shown that while he may not be the most game-savvy player, he could be willing to make a few moves and scramble to save himself. I'd bet on not seeing Woo's torch snuffed this week.
Chance to win: 6th

8: Tasha
The previews seem to suggest that the Solana alliance could finally crumble, but if it doesn't (and the previews usually lie, of course), Tasha is the most likely candidate for elimination. She was perceived as a threat last week by the majority alliance, and if Spencer wins immunity again or plays his idol, she could be gone, as Solana now has the numbers to split the votes.
Chance to win: 3rd

Tony and Woo in Season 28 Episode 8
I'm willing to guess that
Tony's alliance will turn on
him sooner than Woo.
9: Tony
Remember back in Caramoan, where we saw a preview showing Andrea lobbying hard to blindside Brenda? Well, do you remember what actually happened in the episode? Yep. That's right. Andrea went home. When you try too hard to get someone out, other people see you as a threat to their games, and that's exactly what Tony seems to be doing this week. I'm willing to guess that Tony's alliance will turn on him sooner than they turn on Woo, so he may be going home this week.
Chance to win: 2nd

Auction Results

It was another disappointing week for my hand-picked Survivor team. Sure, Spencer won immunity, but Morgan was sent home, making her the second member of the jury and leaving me with only three remaining players against Ethan's six. I'm ahead for the moment, but Ethan's surely going to catch up.

Solarrion Tribe in Season 28 Episode 8
Spencer won immunity and Morgan was sent home.
Marcus:
Spencer Bledsoe (+2)

Morgan McLeod (+2)
LJ McKanas
Trish Hegardy
Sarah Lacina
Total Score: 5

Ethan:
Tasha Fox
Kass McQuillen
Jeremiah Wood
Jefra Bland
Tony Vlachos
Woo Hwang
Total Score: 2


Tomorrow I'll have my weekly post-episode recap on the 8th episode of Survivor: Cagayan, so stay tuned!

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