Power Rankings and Auction for Cagayan E10

Episode 10! Jeff can't believe it.

Episode 10! Can you believe it? We're heading into the final stretch of Cagayan, and down to the final 7 players. Time to continue the power rankings, auction results, and winner predictions. For the winner predictions, I'll be ranking the castaways based on who I think they can beat. For example, if I think someone can beat 2 of the castaways, then he/she is ranked 5th out of 7. (Image credit CBS)

Power Rankings

Last Week: I had Jeremiah at number 2. Ciera had him at six and Gordon Holmes at five...not looking so good for me.
Total Score: 68 points...Ciera has 75 and Gordon is at 81

This Week:

Five...in seven...equals in.

#1: Tony
Kind of an obvious ranking. Unless someone comes up with a crazy Erik-giving-up-immunity level of awesomeness plan this episode, Tony is guaranteed at least one more week. He's also at the top of the food chain right now, and can work with whoever he wants. Tony's made some big moves in this game, and so far they've paid off, so if he can make it to the end, I think he has a decent shot.
Chance to win: 3rd

#2: Woo
Woo's fate in this game has fluctuated with Tony's, and now that Tony is anchored down safely once again, Woo is too. Tony will likely decide which group loses a member this week (either by staying with his current alliance or flipping to Spencer and Tasha), and I can't imagine him making that decision without his trusty right-hand-man Woo...so Woo should end up on the right side of the numbers. The only situation in which I see Woo going home is the scenario I described on our podcast, where everyone unites against Tony and Woo, and split the vote 3-2-2. Tony plays the idol, and Woo goes home...but that's unlikely. Woo also has a fair chance in the finals if he's up against other non-strategic players.
Chance to win: 5th

#3: Trish

Trish is the one holding
it all together.

Trish has been a loyal, steadfast member of her alliance since the merge. She's the one holding it all together. This could set her up as a target, but Tony and Trish appear to be very close, and since I think Tony will decide who goes home, I don't think it will be Trish. If Tony does flip on his current alliance, he'll most likely want to target someone he likes less. Trish has been playing an impressive game from our standpoints, but I'm not sure how well she can communicate her gameplay to a jury.
Chance to win: 4th

#4: Kass
Chaos Kass has been laying low, and sadly (I had high hopes for Kass) has become the perfect vote to take to the end; no one likes her! This should at least keep her safe for the next week or so, and I think even if Spencer's plotting does get Tony to flip, Kass is more of a target for him than Trish but less than Jefra. But Jefra could win immunity, so you never know. And if Kass wants to have any hope of winning, she needs to get rid of someone like Tony and then own up to her mistakes in front of the jury...it's a long shot.
Chance to win: 7th

#5: Spencer

Spencer's edit is
still excellent.

I'm not sure whether the majority alliance would prefer to target Spencer or Tasha at this point. Tasha has won more immunities, but Spencer is the bigger strategic threat. Even though he's so low on the totem pole, Spencer's edit is still excellent, which leads me to believe that he won't be cut at Final 7. If he can appeal to Tony's paranoia, then he'll stay and regain the numbers, but if he fails, I think Tasha will take the fall. And if either he or Tasha make it to the end, I have no doubt that the jury will reward them. If they both make it together, Spencer's edit points to him taking the prize.
Chance to win: 1st

#6: Tasha
Tasha doesn't seem like she'll scramble quite as much as Spencer. She's playing a great under-the-radar social game, but that's all for naught when you're out of time and out of numbers. Spencer is a huge threat too, though, and his edit might have been misleading. Tasha also has a great chance to win immunity based on her past performances...again, I'm just ranking these two based on edits. But if Tasha survives to the Final Tribal Council, she's got a great underdog story to present to the jury and I think could beat anyone except possibly Spencer.
Chance to win: 2nd

#7: Jefra

If Jefra makes it to the end,
I see her getting 0 votes.

This might just be more wishful thinking on my part; I want the underdogs to stay in the game, and I want Tony to make a big move. Logically, they should get rid of Spencer or Tasha, but there's a lot of reasons for a Jefra boot when looking at emotional paranoia-freak Tony hiding in his Spy Shack. In the scenes from next episode, we see Spencer trying to convince Tony to vote "her" out, and I would have to assume that means Jefra. He wouldn't even be lying if he told Tony about the Final 4 deal; she made it and reneged on it, and even that could be enough for Tony to grab Woo and flip. If Jefra makes it to the end, I see her as joining the ranks of the Gervases, Sugars, and Beckys of the world--getting 0 votes, in other words. I do think she could beat Kass, though.
Chance to win: 6th

Auction Results

If you haven't been following along this whole time, Ethan and I did a podcast way back in February where we bid on all 18 players, and Ethan has had a much more successful experience. It's the first time since we merged that I didn't lose someone from my team, but it's still not looking good; Jeremiah became the 4th member of the jury, and Tasha won immunity.

The Solarrion Tribe prepares for its
very own Survivor auction.

Marcus:
Spencer Bledsoe
Trish Hegardy
LJ McKanas
Morgan McLeod
Sarah Lacina
Total Score: 8

Ethan:
Tasha Fox (+2)
Kass McQuillen
Jefra Bland
Tony Vlachos
Woo Hwang
Jeremiah Wood (+4)
Total Score: 10

Check back tomorrow night after the episode for my Survivor recap, and be sure to comment about my rankings; I'd love to hear from you. Stay tuned!