Recapping the Crazy 7th Week of BBCAN2

What a week for the Houseguests.

What a week for the Houseguests, right? I didn't make a Sunday night episode update, but that's just as well, because all of the real excitement happened on the Wednesday and Thursday shows. I'm going to recap how it all went down, but I'm going to set the situation up really quickly and spend most of the time on the decisions that were made and the Houseguests' futures. (Image credit Slice)

So it would seem that after the Double Eviction killed the First Five, Rachelle and Sabrina would be on the outs (by the way, the Gremlins, as they call themselves, is far superior to the Sloppy Seconds, which is of course, obliterated), and so they were...for a time.

Jon put Rachelle and Sabrina on the block, and for all of their whining and complaining, that really was the smart move to make if you want to backdoor someone; Sabrina even said "You can nominate us initially if you want" during the episode.

So then we have a situation that is developing on Wednesday. And if I may make a Game of Thrones analogy, it would seem that Jon, being the HOH, is the King of Westerhouse at the moment. He sits atop the Iron Throne, and is the Joffrey/Cersei/Tywin/Robert for our analogy. Joffrey is actually a bad example, because he's not making the decisions.

And then there are two competing Houseguests--we'll call them Varys and Littlefinger--vying for his attention. Only Varys is much more attractive and Iranian, and Littlefinger is very loud and enjoys running around the House naked. And in this power struggle, where each person is whispering in King Jon Pardy's ear, Varys gained the upper hand.

There are two Houseguests competing for
vying for King Jon's attention.

Moving away from Game of Thrones...Neda gained the upper hand. Which, I have to say, I was a little worried about because although Jon and Neda seem to be extremely close, Jon seemed committed to his "Goof Troop" alliance to the end with Arlie. But Neda prevailed and the plan to backdoor Arlie was hatched.

Naturally, Jon and Neda approach the Gremlins and of course receive their votes to get rid of Arlie; anything to get Sabrina and Rachelle off the block, right? And then they go and talk to Allison.

Here it is worthy of mention that Adel played his special power earlier, allowing him to pull Allison out of the Veto competition and be able to compete in it himself (for no reason other than just to use it), so Allison is not very happy right now. She feels like she's in the bottom of the alliance and no one gives her any information, which really is the fault of the others for not making her feel included, just like with Kass on Survivor.

But anyway, Allison pretends to agree with their backdoor plan, and so Jon goes ahead with a risky but potentially rewarding move. He blindsides Arlie and removes Rachelle from the block.

And here's where things really start to get crazy. Allison pulls the Secret Veto out (which she obtained the week before, if you haven't been following along) and plays it not on Arlie, but on Sabrina, forcing Jon to nominated Adel for eviction.

A couple of things here.

A) Allison, if you were thinking about messing with Jon's plan, why not save Arlie and make it Sabrina vs. Adel?!?!?!? Yes, Sabrina might have gone home, but Arlie is totally safe and ready for revenge.

B) WHY DID YOU PLAY THE VETO?!?! Allison felt like she was powerless in the game and wanted to "make a big move." This was her last chance to play the Secret Veto before it expired, and it was obviously burning a hole in her pocket. But the correct move would have been to not use the Veto, let it expire, and continue along in the game without people perceiving you as an enemy of the alliance and a threat.

Jon and Neda's only ally left at
that point will be Heather.

But ok. You've played the Veto, and are committed to getting out Adel, one of Jon's closest allies, and have saved Sabrina. Allison now has the Gremlins on her side, and she can save Arlie, who will go after Jon and Neda, who's only ally left at that point will be Heather. Great. You're in a great spot, Allison.

So did Arlie win that HOH? Did he get his chance to nominate Jon and Neda?

NO!! BECAUSE YOU FLIPPED BACK TO JON AND NEDA AND EVICTED ARLIE!!!!

This is really the worst part. I understand that Allison wanted to make a move, and it could have been really successful, but then she reneges on her own plan and gets rid of Arlie! So all that she accomplished is pissing off her former alliance and putting herself in no-man's-land.

Let me make things clear: I am ecstatic that Arlie went home. I am jubilant. Not because I disliked Arlie; I thought he was awesome, in fact. But my true allegiance lies with Neda, and by proxy, Jon, so I was happy that their ally Adel stayed this week...and that HOH challenge that came down to Allison and Neda was the most suspenseful this season; I was very happy that Neda won it.

Anyway, now that we're beginning the jury stage of the game are are down to only 7 players, I'm going to stop doing my updated thoughts on players week-by-week and instead focus on their chances for winning. What do they need to do to get to the end, to win, and who can they beat? Let's get started.

This week, I'm going to talk about the three players that are representative of the groups in the House. The other players are mentioned consistently in here as well. (Groups are Adel and Heather, Jon and Neda, Gremlins)

Adel

Adel is very well-liked

Short Term: Adel really got lucky this week that Allison and the Gremlins made a terrible decision. But now that he's moved past the crisis point, he's secure in a Neda HOH. And I think that if the other side of the House (I'm assuming the House is now Adel/Heather/Neda/Jon vs. Allison/Rachelle/Sabrina) wins power down the road, they're going after Neda and Jon, so Arlie is safe, barring a backdooring.

Long Term: Adel, as we saw from Arlie, is very well-liked. I think he can beat any of the three Gremlins, so his best bet would be to break up Rachelle and Sabrina this week and then try to win HOH. Then he can turn on his current alliance. Not great for getting jury votes, I know, but there's no way he can beat Neda or Jon, and it's a toss-up between him and Heather. Going to the end with one of the Gremlins is his only option, and he needs to make a move sooner rather than later, before Neda and Jon become the Emmett and Jillian of this season (are they already?).


Sabrina
Short Term: Basically, Sabrina has to ensure that Neda believes that Rachelle and Allison are much bigger threats than she is (which is true). Sabrina's not going to win HOH, so Rachelle is really the greater danger of the two of them. If she can survive this week and have at least one ally left, and then manage to take control, she has to break up Neda and Jon.

Long Term: I can see Sabrina beating Rachelle at the end, and maybe Allison, so Sabrina neesd to fight hard to keep her allies in the House; she can't join the other alliance. Once/if she takes control, Sabrina just has to tough it out until the end, winning HOHs and POVs (ha, yeah right) and hoping the other side self-destructs, and maybe initiating that self-destruction.

Jon is extremely lucky that Neda won HOH.

Jon
Short Term: Jon is extremely lucky that Neda won the HOH that he couldn't play in. He's safe for another week, which might become a rare thing now that the biggest physical threat besides himself is gone from the House. Jon should probably try to target Rachelle, because she could beat him at an endurance comp. Allison too, for that matter.

Long Term: Jon is in a prickly spot right now. He's viewed as a huge threat by all, and the Gremlins would probably choose him as their first target, so it seems like he should stick with his alliance. The only problem is, taking Neda to the final 2 with him is a surefire way to lose the game. That's right, at this moment I am officially calling it; the game is Neda's to lose! She's playing terrifically, and Jon is really just following her lead. So this will be tricky for him. He needs to get rid of at least 2 of the Gremlins, but then has to flip on Neda before it's too late, and take someone like Heather or Sabrina to the Final 2.

This is actually turning out to be a very good season, and I'm cautiously optimistic for Neda's chances. Tomorrow we'll have a recap of The Amazing Race, so stay tuned!